Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
If you are saying that conventional capability has to adapt to a Geo-political reality, I'd agree. We might not agree on the precise detail of the Geo-political reality.
Absolutely, and I think its worth having this discussion. For one thing, if one makes the argument that we should be heavy in COIN capabilities, then they're basically saying we don't/won't face a major conventional threat. So, lets think for a minute; shall we?

The first country that comes to mind is China. If China threatened Taiwan, I'm pretty sure we wouldn't be invading the Chinese mainland? I'm not even sure if China has the capability of conducting a landing on Taiwan? Even if they could, I don't think our ground forces would be involved? This fight would mostly involve our sea and air forces. So this leads one to ask if raising COIN capabilities requires trade-offs that means cutting naval and air assets? The other possibility is facing China somewhere in Africa?

The next country is Russia. The most obvious location conflict could arise with the Russians would be somewhere in Eastern Europe or Central Asia? I see this as a more likely scenario than China.

The third possibility would be Iran? I don't know much about Iran's military, but I believe Iran's capabilities are greater in asymmetrical warfare.

I suppose North Korea could freak out one day, but again, I don't believe the North Koreans have the ability to sustain much of a war? The ROK Army is also quite capable, and I don't see the US maintaining strong HIC capabilities just for North Korea.

The another potential great power is Turkey, who seems to be growing more significant in the region.

Last, and IMO, the scenario that is potentially most dangerous, is a coalition of countries who are sick of the status quo. Lets say Turkey, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and various non-State actors decided to form an alliance with the intention of raising up oil prices, and throwing some muscle around the Eurasian land mass? This may require some serious conventional capabilities?

Of course, some of you will read this and laugh about how this could never happen! But remember, who in 1900 would of thought that Europe would be killing itself in 1916? And in 1920, who of thought in 1940 that Germany would control most of Europe? And in 1940, who of thought that the US and Russia would control all Europe? I could go on but I think you all get my point?

This thought experiment requires us to contemplate if its worth giving up our superior HIC capabilities for COIN capabilities? You must contemplate this in a world where no one ever predicts the next 20 years very accurately? I know one thing, we MUST remain the masters of the oceans and of the air. We cannot afford to trade the next generation of aircraft for increased COIN capabilities.

Bottom line: Why is it to our strategic advantage to give up our HIC capabilities (to include mastery of the air and of the sea) for increased COIN capabilities? It seems that the origin of the COIN argument is the idea that should transform the Middle east and Africa into "Democracies." How likely is it that we can do this? And is this goal more important than remaining the global hegemon?

I'll stop here, becuase I may be moving into a political type discussion? But I think we should at least *try* to have this conversation. The future of our force configuration pretty much depends on this discussion. I think we can handle it.