Quote Originally Posted by Cavguy View Post
I just don't think a simulation wargame can account for the human-centric complexity of a COIN/Stability environment. Perhaps with a real-live Red Team, immersed in the thought/thinking context of the host, but predicting second and third order effects of human interaction has remained near-impossible. I can't predict my wife's reactions, so what makes me think I can predict second and third order effects in an alien culture with a computer?

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2009/0...wants-sim.html
I'm a much bigger fan of the RPG model for any sort of COIN simulation, which is really where your concern is going, Neil. In order to get a good, 'realistic' simulation you need people in a more or less freeplay environment (with some cultural and other limitations controlled or at least monitored by a white cell).