Covert action in Iran

[tequila]

ABC News is reporting that Pakistani and U.S. government officials are confirming USG backing for Jundallah, a Baluchi Sunni insurgent group striking at Iranian targets in southeastern Iran.

The group, called Jundullah, is made up of members of the Baluchi tribe and operates out of the Baluchistan province in Pakistan, just across the border from Iran.

It has taken responsibility for the deaths and kidnappings of more than a dozen Iranian soldiers and officials.

U.S. officials say the U.S. relationship with Jundullah is arranged so that the U.S. provides no funding to the group, which would require an official presidential order or "finding" as well as congressional oversight.

Jundullah has produced its own videos showing Iranian soldiers and border guards it says it has captured and brought back to Pakistan.

The leader, Regi, claims to have personally executed some of the Iranians.

"He used to fight with the Taliban. He's part drug smuggler, part Taliban, part Sunni activist," said Alexis Debat, a senior fellow on counterterrorism at the Nixon Center and an ABC News consultant who recently met with Pakistani officials and tribal members.

"Regi is essentially commanding a force of several hundred guerrilla fighters that stage attacks across the border into Iran on Iranian military officers, Iranian intelligence officers, kidnapping them, executing them on camera," Debat said.

Most recently, Jundullah took credit for an attack in February that killed at least 11 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard riding on a bus in the Iranian city of Zahedan.

Full video report at Nightline's site. The vid includes video footage of captured Iranian soldiers and RG, including execution of a claimed RG officer, and has many more details, including Iran paying $1m+ ransoms for release of their border guards.

[bismark17]

I don't think this is a good idea.... It reminds me somewhat of the Los Pepes situation.....

[goesh]

Regi the islamic Che Gueverra? I can't buy into the notion of him being a Sunni activist, more a border bandit but if he is killing Iranian forces, I can't cuss his name either. I think Ross/Isham are fishing more for an audience and camp followers. Leave it to the Iranians to claim a taliban/drug runner sort of guy needed tradecraft upgrading in order to make a cross-border hit, and of course said training was done at a secret camp in Pakistan. One of the respondents to the article said in affect that 'they shouldn't be supported because they aren't playing by the rules of war'. No wonder the GWOT is a transgenerational reality.

[tequila]

Actually it is American & Pakistani government officials claiming this.

We've backed SOBs before, Regi far from the worst of them. But the fact that he is a former Talib and present-day Sunni extremist seems extraordinarily short-sighted even for an Administration which has put SCIRI at the head of the Iraqi government.

[goesh]

(backwoods anlysis and tactics) More than anything it's a reminder to Iran of what is on their flank, sort of like a soft kidney punch when boxers are clinched - no real damage can be done but it is felt. When it opens up with Iran, it's not going to take much to send all kinds of Afghanis with combat experience raiding into Iran all up and down that border. These lads won't need any training time in 'secret camps' either. Some cash and marching orders from Clan leaders and it's shoot and loot time across the border in mullah land.

[tequila]

I doubt we'd have much success with that particular strategy. First off, the greatest enemies of Iran in Afghanistan are the Pashtun Sunnis who are more consumed right now with killing Brits and Americans. Western Afghanistan, OTOH, is increasingly Iranian-allied territory. They've been there for quite awhile.

[goesh]

Naww, think of it in terms of the Crow scouting/fighting for Custer against the Lakota and Crook using Apache against Apache and besides, if any of the lads were a bit shy about crossing over, a few crews of hillbillies could be rounded up to go over and do some mentoring...

[Rex Brynen]

Seymour M. Hersh, PREPARING THE BATTLEFIELD: The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran, The New Yorker, 29 June 2008.

Late last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources. These operations, for which the President sought up to four hundred million dollars, were described in a Presidential Finding signed by Bush, and are designed to destabilize the country’s religious leadership. The covert activities involve support of the minority Ahwazi Arab and Baluchi groups and other dissident organizations. They also include gathering intelligence about Iran’s suspected nuclear-weapons program.

[Culpeper]

Military and civilian leaders in the Pentagon share the White House’s concern about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but there is disagreement about whether a military strike is the right solution. Some Pentagon officials believe, as they have let Congress and the media know, that bombing Iran is not a viable response to the nuclear-proliferation issue, and that more diplomacy is necessary.

I used to be familiar with a map of Kharg Island 30 years ago. I think, and I stress, I think we have been planning something with Iran for some time now. I would imagine that the current administration has dusted off a lot of old plans in recent years. "A military strike" would not be a solution. There is still room for more diplomacy but I don't think Israel is going to wait on diplomacy. I'm afraid an American "preemptive military strike" translates to the use of less personnel and a lot more lethality than we I have seen in about 63 years. Now, a military war against Iran is a different story.

Diplomacy may have a couple of open doors with two fronts on Iran being developed as we write. Iraq and Afghanistan. May first question would be has the area known as Iran ever been successfully attacked from both regions at the same time? We just happen to be the latest big new tribe in the entire area. I'm sure there is some history.

[Fuchs]

Kharg?
Wasn't that oil harbour given up due to war damage in the 80's and never taken back into service?

[Culpeper]

Kharg?
Wasn't that oil harbour given up due to war damage in the 80's and never taken back into service?

Don't know. I moved on and haven't thought of the place until today.

[TristanAbbey]

Summary of publicly disclosed information + historical analysis:

http://bellum.stanfordreview.org/?p=286

[bourbon]

In 1980 the Israeli's killed Yahia El Meshad, the Egyptian born head of Iraq's nuke program, in a hotel room in Paris. Then they threw the French Prostitute whose customer was Meshad, into oncoming traffic a few weeks later. Just like in a bad movie.

[kmtina]

A tantalizing hint. http://samsonblinded.org/news/israel...king-iran-9443 Israel's military intelligence chief already announced at a Cabinet meeting that Iran has solved technical barriers to building a nuclear weapon. Certainly the Obama administration is not going to take any real action despite what he said during the campaign.

[George L. Singleton]

I support Israel, am proud of UN Resolution 181 from 1947, and saw and knew two Jewish refugees from concentration camps when I was age 6 in 1945 when these Jewish refugees moved in with their Jewish relatives on our street in Montgomery, Alabama. These refugees still had shaven heads and of course visible tatoes on their forearms.

A very good friend of mine was saved at age 13 from a German holding prison for recently found & captured Jews in Belgium...and told me years ago the Germans were rushing to kill them all in this camp when the war ended and the Germans "ran away" leaving some Jews still alive, including my then 13 year old Belgium Jewish friend, now a naturalized US citizen who did four years in the USAF and is now retired from US Civil Service.

This says I stand by Israel and UN Resolution 181, which he Arabs had every opportunity and still have every opportunity to accept giving them a free state of Palestine, to peacefully coexist side by side with Israel.

What is "interesting" is this topic about Iran vs. Israel, is that Iranians are not ethnic Arabs and neither are most Lebanese ethnic Arabs, either.

It is my view and opinion that since both our Holy Bible and the Muslims Holy Quaran dwell on a new Jerusalem that all focus on the facts in both books to understand that a or the "New Jerusalem" is a spiritual, in the context of a new Heavens and a new earth, to be created place, my view, think of the New Jerusalem as under New York Citu "air rights" instead of a literaly on the ground piece of earth as we know it today. This is where, my view, the theological discussions should focus instead of stupidly on blood and guts, which never fixes anything.

[Rex Brynen]

What is "interesting" is this topic about Iran vs. Israel, is that Iranians are not ethnic Arabs and neither are most Lebanese ethnic Arabs, either.

About 3% of Iranians are ethnically Arab--but, it should also be noted, only 51% are ethnically Persian. It is a very heterogeneous country.

In Lebanon, by contrast, 95% of the population are ethnically Arab (even if the occasional Maronite claims to be Phoenician). The only major group that aren't are the Armenians, who nonetheless consider themselves fully Lebanese (despite Amin Juayyil's disastrous comments to the contrary following his 2007 Metn by-election defeat).

[Schmedlap]

Recent NY Times story on a possible newfound focus in (Pakistani) Baluchistan...

WASHINGTON — President Obama and his national security advisers are considering expanding the American covert war in Pakistan far beyond the unruly tribal areas to strike at a different center of Taliban power in Baluchistan...
- from March 17, 2009 NY Times

Old reports on the area from Jamestown.org...

This extreme southeastern Iranian province is awash with lethal arms and illicit drugs. The more extreme eastern fringes of Iranian Baluchistan are effectively lawless land, and thus attractive to both religious militants and Baluch nationalists. The illicit trade of “drugs for arms” between Iranian and Pakistani Baluchistan goes on with impunity.
...Just as Pakistani Baluchs complain of “Punjabization” of their province, the Iranian Baluchs speak of “Persianization” of theirs. On the other hand, Pakistani Sunni militants, many of whom are suspected of having links with al-Qaeda, see in Iranian Baluchs a Sunni minority persecuted by the Shiite majority. Consequently, they are keen to exploit this constituency in their sectarian war with the Islamic Republic.
- from July 7, 2005, Jamestown.org

I wonder if this could be used as leverage against Iran (for example, I would assume that our strikes would occur in tandem with some on-the-ground target acquisition/confirmation, which would also include cooperation with and developing ties with the Baloch). Or, perhaps, this could be a cooperative effort, given common interests in the region (Iran's Baloch insurgency and our adversaries in the same region).

[Culpeper]

I guess it's not a secret anymore.

[George L. Singleton]

Rex:

Thanks for correcting me regarding Lebanon, but my comments about Iran being non-Arab are on targe. Iran is 96% non-Arab, or thereabouts.

Below is the CIA World Book info on Lebanon...and our many Lebanese Christians here in our largest city in Alabama do not claim to be Arabs but follow the Phoenician line of thought as ancient Christian cultures and churches here and in Lebanon.

Lebanese Ethnic groups:

LEBANON; Arab 95%, Armenian 4%, other 1%
note: many Christian Lebanese do not identify themselves as Arab but rather as descendents of the ancient Canaanites and prefer to be called Phoenicians

LEBANESE Religions:

Muslim 59.7% (Shia, Sunni, Druze, Isma'ilite, Alawite or Nusayri), Christian 39% (Maronite Catholic, Greek Orthodox, Melkite Catholic, Armenian Orthodox, Syrian Catholic, Armenian Catholic, Syrian Orthodox, Roman Catholic, Chaldean, Assyrian, Copt, Protestant), other 1.3%
note: 17 religious sects recognized

Both Hizballah and Hamas are Shi'a Muslim terrorist organizations. Iran of course is majority Shi'a by a mile...but Iranains are not ethnic Arabs.

Similarly, Pakistan's population is majority non-Arab, and is or used to be about 50/50 Shi'a and Sunni religious complexion. Since 1947 when Pakistan as a new nation voted against the creation of Israel...Pakistan as a nation has tended to be more moderate and former President Musharraf was very moderate regarding Israel's existance.

[Rex Brynen]

Certainly some Lebanese (usually Maronite) Christians claim not to be Arab— as they speak their Arabic (native) tongue, eat shawarma, etc.

Both Hizballah and Hamas are Shi'a Muslim terrorist organizations.

Hamas is Sunni--there are hardly any Palestinian Shi'ites.