But:

1. I think the combination of Gates + the rise of COIN folks from CNAS (Nagl & Co.) + Obama's purported focus on Afghanistan suggest that we see some major shift in resources towards fighting small wars -- to the extent, anyway, that the shift is greater than what has already been done over the past couple years.

2. I am not a national security professional, so these are my views as an outsider looking in to the discussion. I am always happy to be educated when in error.

3. If war is politics by other means, then the question of future wars is a political question. So the question of Gates vs. Gray is the wrong question insofar as it ignores the will of the political class, which is increasingly distant from military experience, disdainful and/or ignorant of war, etc.

4. But if forced to answer the question, I have to say I'm agnostic because I don't know enough. Islamic radicalism certainly defines a large part of the strategic environment, but does it override energy and demographics? I'm not sure.