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Thread: AfPak: an overview of Pakistan / Afghanistan

  1. #21
    Council Member Surferbeetle's Avatar
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    Default And on the ground...

    From Michael Yon's Blog a posting on Afghanistan: Death in the Corn


    Living with British troops of 2 Para at FOB Gibraltar and watching them fight, I witnessed one of the great paradoxes of Afghanistan. The troops are fighting hard and killing the enemy. They are professional and extremely competent. Their morale is high. They are doing a great job. And we are losing the war.
    The Brits know exactly who the sniper is. About half a dozen fruit trees occluded fields of fire, so the soldiers cut them down. The Brits offered to pay for the trees, but were bound by regulations on how much they could pay. Major Adam Dawson told me the amount was something like $20 per tree, which of course is tantamount to zero. Achmed, an Afghan neighbor, came to collect the money, but the owner of the fruit tress had told Achmed not to accept payment. The owner was livid, saying: “I can’t believe Achmed let them cut down my trees! I’m going to go @#%& his wife!” I don’t know if anything happened to Achmed’s wife, but I do know that the Brits said the owner of the fruit trees bought himself a sniper rifle. He’s been shooting at Gibraltar ever since.

    The British go by a chart that details how much they are allowed to pay for certain items they destroy. A tree, a car, a house, even a life—everything has its price. In Iraq, the payments truly could assuage anger at times. Few transgressions inflame the passions more than a sincere feeling of being manhandled and treated unjustly. The perception of injustice—especially coming from Americans or British, who many people see as monetarily omnipotent—can earn a bomb in the road, or a bullet in the head.
    Sapere Aude

  2. #22
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Talking to the Taliban?

    Following comments by President Obama (see SWJ Blog today) talking to the taliban has returned to the media frontpage and the BBC link is: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7930865.stm

    The short video interview with Imran Khan, a Pakistani politician, is worth watching.

    Of course all the reporting has nothing to do with the Afghan elections later this year and Karzai's position looking vulnerable.

    davidbfpo

  3. #23
    Former Member George L. Singleton's Avatar
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    Default Semi-autonomy hasn't helped...

    ...since 1947 until end of the 1960s Pakistan's various governments have consistently allowed a great deal of autonomy in the NWFP area, FATA, Swat, etc.

    Radical Islam was always present even in the mid-1960s when I was stationed there, but has as everyone knows today much worse no thanks to al Qaida and the Taliban.

    Extremist Islamics are in all parts of the country, fueled, peopled by fomrerly harmless madrassas which are radicalized today due to Wahabbi Islamics (terrorists mongers) out of Saudi, who finance, arm, and give radical theological guidance.

    A major US university about 2 or so years ago decided they would run a program from the US into Pakistan madrassas and uplift moderate modrassas and moderate theologians teaching there. End result: The damn idiots at the US University (name withheld on purpose) bragged on line, in articles, etc. of their "progress" so stupid much that both al Qaida and the Taliban were able to 100% target the so-called moderate teachers, all of whom were then systematically murdered. How stupid can we be to be talking at the President's level, in the open, all over again, in a manner as the major US university did?

    Just some overly obvious thoughts in reaction to your good, well research above inputs.
    Last edited by George L. Singleton; 03-09-2009 at 02:54 AM.

  4. #24
    Former Member George L. Singleton's Avatar
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    Default Monday, March 9 NEW YORK TIMES re Pakistan events

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/wo..._r=1&th&emc=th

    Regrettably a careful reading of this NYT story shows:

    1. Any successes, no matter how small, by and of the Taliban and al Qaida are trumpeted by the world media as "wins"

    2. Whereas any successes, no matter how small, by and of the Pakistan military and/or our allied/NATO forces in Afghanistan/on the Pakistani side of the border are trumpted by rthe world media as "disasterous losses."

  5. #25
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    Default

    Sometimes it is indeed difficult to see the forest for the trees. Try to step back from your focus on religion to look at the bigger picture, it might help.

    But also don't always try to drag larger discussions back to your focus on religion. My points are not about any one state, and apply as much in Pakistan as they do in the Netherlands or South America, or the U.S.; they are independent of any particular fact pattern and premised in the underlying dynamics at work.

    Yes, Pakistan saw Afghanistan as a buffer, or maneuver space that they could use in conflict with India. Yes, the Pakistanis backed the Taliban to keep a friendly government there to allow this. Yes these people are largely Muslim. We inserted ourselves into this dynamic in order to get at AQN, which was totally ancilary to the Pakistan -Afghan/Taliban relationship.

    What we did there was unconventional warfare to replace this Pakistani supported government with a US supported government in order to deny the sanctuary that the Taliban were giving AQN. Everything that follows is because this is a very complex situation with a lot of history and we didn't appreciate or understand any of that very well, we just wanted to sting AQ and deny the sanctuary. This lack of understanding /appreciation, coupled with our own narrow objective going in, and ever widening set of objectives of "democratizing" and "nation building" since have gotten us ever deeper into a situation we still don't have our minds around.

    But "religious terrorism" is a convenient label that places all blame on Islam, and offers no insights as to how to achieve a broader solution. I am sure the Pope and his Catholic team agonized over "religious terrorism" during the reformation as well, just as we agonized over "communist terrorism" in the 50s and 60s. To focus on the beliefs used to motivate the masses over the underlying causes of conflict is to set a course for failure. Many have taken it in the past because it conveniently absolves one of any responsibiltiy for the conflict.

    Follow the Pied Piper theory of idological caused insurgency if you will. But I have no time for such baseless fairy tales. If the city is full of rats, it is because we've left too much garbage laying about. When we clean up our mess, the rats will go away.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  6. #26
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    Default How bad is the situation in Pakistan ?

    The lead stories for 14-15 Mar at Thai-Indian News are not very upbeat.

  7. #27
    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
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    Post Interestly enough

    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    The lead stories for 14-15 Mar at Thai-Indian News are not very upbeat.
    Although their perspective on Pakistan is what one might expect I was caught by the perception of our own governance in the same place
    Obama aides admit presentational errors making him less popular
    Placing this in tandem with their perception of what they think we can do for or with Pakistan is truly troublesome

    Silliest thing about the whole deal is I'd bet you anything there's probably a parking garage attendant at the White house who could have given them a heads up that the chosen gifts for Brown might not have been the most(shall we say appropriate
    Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours

    Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur

  8. #28
    Former Member George L. Singleton's Avatar
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    Default Bob, you seem to be contradicting yourself...

    The other new factor is the rise of non-state actors like AQ, that can now wage unconventional warfare to join and enflame disparate local causes like only state actors could previously. They also are able to do this relatively immune from the time tested DIME tools of statecraft to control such actions among fellow states. A dynamic leader with a powerful ideology like Hitler needed to first attain control of a state in order to have significant impact. Today attaining a state creates an Achilles heel and is to be avoided by such. Bin Laden knows this full well and has no desire to soon abandon the "legal sanctuary" of his current status.
    My two years in Paksitan in the mid-1960s fits this topic pretty well, as I picked up the additional duty of managing RON of walking wounded from South Vietnam immediately after the Gulf of Tonkin...and I had been "in the area or arena if you like" prior to the Gulf of Tonkin to have a young man's impression of things to come over there.

    Bob, when the whole free world's intel system is jointly wrong, not by collusion to decieve but due to wrong info leading to wrong suppositions, referring to Iraq, this does not undo the continuium fact that ever since the first Gulf of Tonkin [which I volunteered back on duty for and ran the entire airlift for the East Coast, based out of Charleston AFB, but covering the coast, up and down, for that war]..the "ideology or theory" of containment, isolation, and sanctions failed miserably and was not working...in fact by Saddam and his grizzly gang, together with various Western business people in Europe...found ways and means to get richer off of the UN and associated organizations well intentioned by embezzeled morally and literally...programs to provide medicine and food for the ordinary Iraqi citizens.

    My today, 2009, friends in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and here in the US, I refer here to my Muslim friends, both Shia and Sunnis, who are both over there and have family here..some of whom are in my home town here in sunny Alabama...tell me, not I them...that the radical Islamic terrorists are succeeding in "kidnapping Islam."

    They tell me, but I do agree, that the updated concept of the Umah is stateless and being construed by the Taliban and al Qaida to be the "ideological" state of mind desired to seek to take over the minds and religious freedoms of the world, starting with other Muslims, but extending to all others of differeing faiths, or for that matter, even those of no faith.

    You emphasis is to seek a mold, updated, that stamps in common outcomes from the past down to today. I disagree, just as I disagree with the two generals featured in another part of SWJ who complain about folks using high faluting words, confusing terminology which they think confuses young officers and NCOs, but as much, my view, seems to confuse them!

    Chaos and mayhem have always been what that says, and is a piece of the puzzle in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    Whether it is Musharraf, Zardari, or whoever comes next in Pakistan...and a deposed ex-Chief Justice of the Pakistan Supreme Court has no business under their, Pakistani, Constitution which I know a little about...trying to be the top dog and dictator over the non-sectarian PPP elected President of Pakistan.

    The Shariff brothers, one of whom was the PM of Paksitan whom Musharraf deposed, are as crooked as it gets and ex-PM Shariff has trucked with the Taliban, and al Qaida, heavily and supported/enabled them both when he was PM, which is part of why Musharraf overthrew him (Shariff).

    The Uman as a terrorist adopted and distorted concept is stateless, seeks to draw in or force in, more correctly said, into radical Sunni/Wahabbi driven Islam, the masses of the world, if they but could.

    The boogey man? Not yet, but if pacifist ideas took hold here in the West, if we don't keep insisting that Pakistan permanently install peacekeeping forces inside the NWFP and related areas of Pakistan to back up and directly in most cases enforce civil law and order...instead of, my studied opinion, Zardari and/or the flag ranks and ISI sending troops from where they are and were most needed to senseless postings on the Indian border...allegedly over Mumbai terrorism which Pakistan has made clear was instigated, planned, funded, and driven from within Pakistan to inside India... then there is no rational hope.

    No, the US cannot police the world, literally, even with our NATO allies. But we can back and support when they can be trusted [and as often as not the ISI and Pak flag rangs are not trustworthy but support radical Islamic terrorists such as the Taliban and even al Qaida) the duly elected non-sectarian government of President Zardari over that of the ex-Chief Justice of the Pakistani Supreme Court, Mr. Justice Chowdry...who would use the court system to run yet another dictatorship of Pakistan...all over again!

    It is a mess, but we cannot turn our backs on all this, but we cannot fix it ourselves, either.

    So Bob, you have your quasi pacifist influence views and I have my hawkish views, but we both are looking at as you so correctly wrote of...stateless religious terrorism which is bent on worldwide trouble making if we don't keep them pinned in where they are until some sort of resolution in maybe....generations to come...can be realized.

    I would never trust these religious terrorist thugs with nukes, and I can tell you it makes my native Pakistani friends, both Shia and Sunnis, loose sleep at night as that prospect grows daily with the chaos inside Pakistan.

    So Bob, as during WWII, when actual pacifists refused combat duty but were useful in support non-combat roles, your ideology and ideas have a place in the puzzle, as do mine focused on what I know to be the cold reality of terrorism in the name of Islam. No Bob, all Muslims are not terrorists, but even one such Islamic terrorist is one too many today with nuclear weaponry control and use at stake inside Pakistan...and the possibility of tactical nukes being used elsewhere...fill in the blanks...that makes me loose sleep!

  9. #29
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Debate and views in two threads: a note

    I have moved two posts on another thread, Special Warafre 1962, by Bob's World and George S., to this a more appropriate thread on Afghanistan / Pakistan. The other thread started IMHO to disperse somewhat. (PM to both sent). So if the views seem slightly disjointed blame me and look at the other thread please.

    davidbfpo

  10. #30
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    Default David, what is your opinion ...

    re: the question I asked in post #10 ?

  11. #31
    Council Member Culpeper's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    re: the question I asked in post #10 ?
    This one pretty much sums it up for me...

    March 15th, 2009 - 4:44 pm ICT by ANI -
    Islamabad, Mar. 15 (ANI): United States Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker has said there is an awful lot of support for the insurgency in Pakistan, which enabled terrorists to launch attacks ...
    "But suppose everybody on our side felt that way?"
    "Then I'd certainly be a damned fool to feel any other way. Wouldn't I?"


  12. #32
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    Default My present concern ...

    is not with the Taliban insurgency (or any other form of Pashtun nationalism), but with the larger issue of dissention in the majority Punjab and Sindh areas - in short, a breakdown in the "arrangements" that have constituted mainstream Pakistani politics. No doubt, the Taliban would take advantage of a breakdown in mainstream Pakistani governance; but, in the event of that, we would be facing much more pressing problems (IMO).

    -----------------------------

    PS: Culpeper - among the other articles on the T-I News page is an updated survey showing that a majority of Pakistanis (presumably Punjab and Sindh) are very concerned about extremist Islamic VNSAs.
    Last edited by jmm99; 03-16-2009 at 12:16 AM. Reason: add PS

  13. #33
    Former Member George L. Singleton's Avatar
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    Default

    jmm99 your posted concerns about the near term and longer time events in Pakistan, Sindh and Punjab, are valid but I suggest not yet realizable by the Taliban and al Qaida.

    While Lahore is where the Pakistan Taliban were founded in about 1978, their impact there is limited thus far. My opinion is that it only takes a handful of youths to shoot up the Shrilankan cricket team (Ceylon team to us old timers), thereby creating world media frenzy that "the Taliban are coming!"

    In Karachi the Pakistan national and Sinda provincial governments, plus the Army, Navy, and Air Force of Paksitan, all of which have multiple bases in and around Karachi, are well aware of the 1.5 million Pukhtuns out of the total Karachi population of around 14 million as trouble making areas to be watched and well "policed."

    1. And, I do know from past and current friendships in Pakistan that as all Muslims at not terrorists neither are all Pukhtuns Taliban or al Qaida. There is a huge middle group of Pukhtuns who make a good honest living in Pakistan business, government and the miliary who are in the main loyal Pakistanis.

    2. Then there is a second in size group of Pukhtuns, some educated, some illiterate, who favor for various reasons a peaceful secession from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and part of India adjacent to Lahore...and who even in some cases are willing to remain a loyal part of Pakistan in exchange for what has just recently happened, the renaming of the former NWFP as "Pukhtunwanaland" or some such spelling, which gives them primary, focused ethnic recognition [rightly or wrongly, as there are minorities tribes who are not Pukhtuns who are suffering greatly at the hands of the Taliban terrorist Pukhtuns, and even more moderate Pukhtuns if given too much of a swelled head could come down on and discriminate against non-Pukhtuns in their midst...a very slippeyr slope in my view.

    3. And a third group of Pukhtuns who seem to favor a violent revolution to create Pakhtuawanaland, or some such spelling, to be made up of most of Afghanistan, various parts of Northern Pakistan and northern Waziristan, even across through Lahore into Pukhtun populated parts in India across from Lahore, that area of India/Guijirat (?).

    This ethnic disunity can be as much our ally as our enemy. Wise Pakistani political leadersh may be able to continue to straddle that fence with the Pukhtuns who are otherwise not loyal to the nation of Pakistan.

    I believe, only my opinion, that examples of 4-5 teenage to early 20s age boys killing Lahore police and wounding Ceylon cricketers; of youthful, often teenage bloggers on various Pukhtun websites blabbing their boastful threats of violence and their wish for freedom, etc. are far from the majority it would take to start and successfully sustain a major revolutionary uprising.

    I do know that many non-Taliban Pukhtuns hate and have no use for the Talban nor for al Qaida...even though the Taliban and al Qaida would like to exploit their general confused discordant attitudes, which I again believe are a minority of Pukhtuns, far from a majority of same.

    Remember, there are more Muslims today in India than in all of Pakistan, and India has both Pukhtun separatists as well as other ethnic minorities who are wouldbe kings of the mountain. So, if India, a democracy, is holding things together, Pakistan, which is smaller geographically and has a huge non-Pukhtun majority of 85% of the total Pak population can muddle through until "better times" can be planned out, somehow.
    Last edited by George L. Singleton; 03-16-2009 at 02:06 AM.

  14. #34
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Pass on JMM's question

    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    david, re: the question I asked in post #10 ?
    JMM,

    Distracted at the moment and have not watched Pakistan as closely as usual. I did watch the newsreel yesterday of Sharif's "long march" and the BBC repporter's comment that the police were active in opposition and then disappeared.

    Others who watch Pakistan have remarked that the abyss is not close-by and that large parts of civil society remain strong. Not sure if the decision to restore the Chief Justice supports or detracts from this.

    davidbfpo

  15. #35
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    Default Zardari blinked

    Seems the immediate crisis is over for the time being - per Reuters and Thai-Indian News.

    The restoration of Pakistan's Chief Justice in the larger sense, brings us back to the Taliban in the NWFP. There, more sharia courts are announced.

    Sharia courts in other areas of province soon, says NWFP information minister
    March 16th, 2009 - 11:55 am ICT by ANI -

    Mingora (Pakistan), Mar.16 (ANI): The North West Frontier Province (NWFP) Government has announced plans to establish sharia courts in other parts of the province.
    Over a dozen related stories at the last link.

  16. #36
    Former Member George L. Singleton's Avatar
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    Default Some Shariffs financial holding u may not know of...

    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    JMM,

    Distracted at the moment and have not watched Pakistan as closely as usual. I did watch the newsreel yesterday of Sharif's "long march" and the BBC repporter's comment that the police were active in opposition and then disappeared.

    Others who watch Pakistan have remarked that the abyss is not close-by and that large parts of civil society remain strong. Not sure if the decision to restore the Chief Justice supports or detracts from this.

    davidbfpo
    David et al:

    The Shariff brothers are among the wealthiest land owners in and from the Pakistani Province of Punjab.

    Punjab used to inclue all of what is today's NWFP, until 1901, as I wrote on SWJ yesterday.

    The Shariff family reaches back to Raj era India and had and still has vast land, timber, and mining holdings both in today's Pakistani Punjab, as well as inside today's NWFP and inside today's Swat. I think the Shariffs own copper mine(s) in Swat, among other things.

    To my eye these economic business interests the Shariffs own in now troubled terrorist zones explains to me that ex-PM Shariff when he was PM (overthrown in 1999 by Musharraf who knows all about these holdngs) and his brother have in the past (through 1999) and are again at the present among the power centers favoring "deals" with the Taliban...in order to preserve and protect their land, timber, and mining and any other related business interests in ex-Punjab zone now defined as today's NWFP, Swat, etc.

    Hope this background helps you all better understand what the Pukhtuns don't like about Punjabis, particularly about the Shariffs who they voted against, not for, by voting for either the PPP or the ANP in the Presidential and Parliamentary national and provincial elections in 2008 in Pakistan.

    Cheers,
    George

  17. #37
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Overview

    This long article appeared in The (UK) Daily Telegraph, the author is a former BBC journalist and now works for Al-Jazeera, who spent five weeks in Pakistan and the programme has been shown already:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Pakistan.html

    The programmes are online: http://english.aljazeera.net/program...123302404.html

    Nothing startling, but of interest.

    davidbfpo
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-30-2009 at 09:22 AM. Reason: Add second link after search

  18. #38
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Documentary on Pakistan's Taliban generation

    Broadcast on Monday, on the UK Channel Four, a 49 minute long documentary made by a Pakistani lady reporter: http://www.channel4.com/video/brandl...ban-generation

    The main website for short clips and commentary is: http://www.channel4.com/programmes/dispatches

    Recommended by local contacts and to be watched later today; Spring is here and into the garden.

    davidbfpo

  19. #39
    Former Member George L. Singleton's Avatar
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    Default Global Hujra Online citation: 3/29 Pakhtun's opinions

    http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6416

    I think posting #6 may be of interest and perhaps best fits under this established thread by David.

    Here is a pinpoint quote from this Internet Pakhtun website that is encouraging to me:

    As I have already mentioned that we have always been enmeshed in proxy wars. We dont have much of the options. We have to wait. The govt should try something on the line of Swat, where reconciliation should be fostered to bring a temporary peace and stop further bloodshed. None of the member of this forum will agree, but I am of the opinion that if the local support army in reporting against taliban activities, I am sure this menace will be ended soon. Army is inactive due to non-cooperation from the civil population. Understandably, Taliban have killed many civilians having links with the army and therefore, I understand that civilians are hesitant to report anything to the army. But we have take risk otherwise this fire may take longer than our expectation.

    It is not the job of civil population to fight with Taliban, it is the duty of Law enforcing agencies. So we better assist them in performance of their duties.

  20. #40
    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
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    Cool Why is it that everytime

    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Broadcast on Monday, on the UK Channel Four, a 49 minute long documentary made by a Pakistani lady reporter: http://www.channel4.com/video/brandl...ban-generation

    The main website for short clips and commentary is: http://www.channel4.com/programmes/dispatches

    Recommended by local contacts and to be watched later today; Spring is here and into the garden.

    davidbfpo
    Something gets posted that I try to check out in the UK
    IT ends up tellin me something like-

    You need to be within the UK or the Republic of Ireland to watch Channel 4 programmes


    I think my ancestors got kicked out of Scotland for drinkin too much, thats gotta count for something

    Startin to think yall got somethin against Yanks tryin to get edumucated

    Thanks for the heads up though, Ill see if I can't find it somewhere else.
    Look's informative
    Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours

    Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur

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