Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 104

Thread: Design for military operations

  1. #21
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    4,818

    Default

    Also a lot of "Statistical Analysis' was portrayed as "Systems Analysis" during the Cold War and the two ain't the same thing.

  2. #22
    Council Member pvebber's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Rho Dyelan
    Posts
    130

    Default

    Unfortunately, it was not just in the Cold war era - we are still seeing a lot of it, at least on the Navy side. Statistical analysis confused with decision theory too.

    Even worse is the idea that you can put number labels on subjective opinions, and then "do math on them" and get results that make sense. You can't average 5 "yes-no" questions, 5 "1-5 scale good to bad" questions, and 5 "agree - disagree 1-5" questions and get "a quantitative answer". We see that kind of thing all the time.

    And then there is the numerical confusing of activity with progress - see that all the time with "averaging" MOPs to get the "quantitative" result of the MOE the MOPs are filed under. When the question is asked "how does the performance of those activies achieve the objective" the answer is usually "we briefed the MOEs and MOPs to the Commander and he didn't push back on it" And the "if these were really problems, the TTP would warn not to do that."

    The Navy desperately needs a cadre of ORSA - specialty folks like the other services have.
    Last edited by pvebber; 03-18-2009 at 12:43 PM.
    "All models are wrong, but some are useful"

    -George E.P. Box

  3. #23
    i pwnd ur ooda loop selil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Belly of the beast
    Posts
    2,112

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by pvebber View Post
    Unfortunately, it was not just in the Cold war era - we are still seeing a lot of it, at least on the Navy side. Statistical analysis confused with decision theory too.
    When I teach decision science to my graduate students they expect a lot of statistics. When I start in on game theory on one end, and OODA loops on the other end their eyes get really wide. The MBA program was fairly horrified at the idea of game theory being used. I'm not really sure why. One MBA student kept muttering about alphas. On the other hand SIPDE, IPDE, OODA, and half a dozen other strategies were lapped up whole heartedly.
    Sam Liles
    Selil Blog
    Don't forget to duck Secret Squirrel
    The scholarship of teaching and learning results in equal hatred from latte leftists and cappuccino conservatives.
    All opinions are mine and may or may not reflect those of my employer depending on the chance it might affect funding, politics, or the setting of the sun. As such these are my opinions you can get your own.

  4. #24
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DaveDoyle View Post
    At the School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) at Fort Leavenworth, KS, 96 SAMS students, faculty and contractors recently finished a six week experimentation period using “design” to approach military operations. Students from the US Armed Forces, USAID, FBI and international militaries applied design theory to future scenarios templated in CENTCOM, EUCOM, PACOM, and NORTHCOM. The design principles concentrated the student’s efforts not on solving “the” problem, but first on defining the “correct” problem set and developing a methodology to manage the environment through application of all elements of national power. The most recent experiment took the design efforts and focused on producing information to be used by planners. The interface for designers and planners in this case was a campaign directive.

    If the GWOT is a problem set, and we have been dealing with it as a government for nearly eight years, perhaps design is a useful approach for military leaders.

    I would like to hear from the SWJ community, many with experience in developing campaign plans, about what might be a useful product for planners from a design team. I would also appreciate engaging in a dialogue about the utility of design in general. Links to two recent Military Review articles about design are posted below.

    Thanks,
    Dave

    http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/Military...430_art015.pdf

    http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/Military...430_art016.pdf
    Although my experience with design is limited to the context of an academic setting, I have had the opportunity to read and discuss design with several military & interagency partners; a step up (perhaps) from having stayed at a Holiday Inn. The attached pdf contains my thoughts regarding its utility.

    While I’m aware of, and have observed, some systems frames created by command-level staffs, I’d like to echo Dave’s thoughts in soliciting feedback from strategists/planners who are currently engaged in design efforts to address contemporary issues. What has been your experience? Is design being embraced, accepted, discussed, shunned… Is their practical utility?
    v/r

    Murph
    Attached Files Attached Files

  5. #25
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    2,706

    Default Our products have been widely embraced at all levels

    Quote Originally Posted by Murph View Post
    Although my experience with design is limited to the context of an academic setting, I have had the opportunity to read and discuss design with several military & interagency partners; a step up (perhaps) from having stayed at a Holiday Inn. The attached pdf contains my thoughts regarding its utility.

    While I’m aware of, and have observed, some systems frames created by command-level staffs, I’d like to echo Dave’s thoughts in soliciting feedback from strategists/planners who are currently engaged in design efforts to address contemporary issues. What has been your experience? Is design being embraced, accepted, discussed, shunned… Is their practical utility?
    v/r

    Murph
    Just the SOCOM framing of the the global environment alone drew great interest and provided leaders with a fresh perspective. Since then the "big ideas" that have come from that in the Strategy Development process are producing concepts that are generating a great deal of interest across a wide range of disciplines as well. From this new perspective we are going to go back in and re-frame the original Strategic Appreciation, and take the whole process to the next level.

    Meanwhile we (and be "we" I mean everyone from the President on down) get the same old stuff from the intel guys: AQ here and everywhere, look out for these big scary cold war states, etc. No big ideas there, just old thinking applied to the latest information. Sadly so much of what we do is based on these lame intel products. I will remain a harsh critic of the intel community until they evolve. Not because I don't like them, but simply because they deserve it.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  6. #26
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Default Agree with Bob on the relative value of the Intel community

    however, I'll also defend them by pointing out that risk aversion is a bureaucratic side effect.

    Their risk aversion is part and parcel of that affecting all of DoD and the majority of the Armed Forces -- that is, regrettably, unlikely to be changed and is a function of the same phenomenon affecting society worldwide. It is most noticeable in western democracies and is likely to get worse instead of better.

    The solution for that phenomenon in nature is death and new birth. Except for a few things that have developed the capacity to regenerate...

    They always told me that doing the same thing over and over and achieving the same result was not smart and that if I discovered an obstacle, bypassing or flanking was better than a frontal assault. So it seems to me if the designated organization isn't doing the job, it should be flanked...

  7. #27
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    2,706

    Default I like the way you think!

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post

    They always told me that doing the same thing over and over and achieving the same result was not smart and that if I discovered an obstacle, bypassing or flanking was better than a frontal assault. So it seems to me if the designated organization isn't doing the job, it should be flanked...

    We're leaving bread crumbs for them to follow.

    Actually to be fair and expand a bit on what they can't seem to grasp: The guy with stars on his chest/collar in the rear doesn't need the same tactical lay down that the guy actually on the ground with oak leaves or bars. Raise your game. How about some strategic analysis and perspective??? And that does not mean simply providing world wide tactical info.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  8. #28
    Council Member J Wolfsberger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    806

    Default Bob,

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    “A key distinction is that the Cold War-era use of systems engineering to solve problems no longer works. In order to effectively deal with the increased levels of complexity that we are now faced with today, we need to adopt a more robust method for understanding our environment, with all the inherent relationships, tensions and barriers to security, so to develop well thought out, adaptive solutions to the complex problems that we face.”


    BG (Retired)
    Huba Wass de Czege
    June 18, 2008
    Would you know anything about where this quote came from? My initial response is extremely negative, but I'd like to know the full context and all the reasoning before I comment.
    John Wolfsberger, Jr.

    An unruffled person with some useful skills.

  9. #29
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    4,818

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by J Wolfsberger View Post
    Would you know anything about where this quote came from? My initial response is extremely negative, but I'd like to know the full context and all the reasoning before I comment.

    Jay it is in this months issue of Military Review which has a couple of articles on design. You can link to it through SWJ rsearch links. but you probably already new that

  10. #30
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Default J Wolfsberger is a good man and a

    logical thinker. He hesitates to criticize the quote until he has full knowledge of the context. Admirable trait that. Seriously.

    I, OTOH, read that and thought: "That systems engineering jazz never worked during the Cold War no matter how hard some tried to push it. Plus, the problems we face today are not more complex, they're just different."

    I'd add we'd be much better off with some bright, intuitive solutions than with the well thought out adaptive solutions from a lot of really smart people that we've tried thus far...

  11. #31
    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Kansas
    Posts
    1,099

    Thumbs up As usual you gent's are on it dogonit

    Considering the good BG(retired) is one of my favorites I usually find what he says pretty informative and thus I'm keepin hope alive that somebody talks him into taking the the new chair at the college.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post

    I'd add we'd be much better off with some bright, intuitive solutions than with the well thought out adaptive solutions from a lot of really smart people that we've tried thus far...
    I have actually heard that same thing from quite a few so at least there's hope that maybe it'll stick.
    Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours

    Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur

  12. #32
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    2,706

    Default

    Huba is a great American. You don't need to agree with everything he says, but you're a fool if you don't listen. I think I gave the poor guy an ulcer during the week he tried to mentor me when I was tasked to lead a group in a SOD course.

    I understood the concept, because it is basically how I think about things anyway; but the SOD material was so convaluted and complex in the way it was presented I was struggling to lead a team to do something "right" that none of us could figure out from the half day presentation we were given prior to being told to apply it. Huba is a patient man.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  13. #33
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    The State of Partachia, at the eastern end of the Mediterranean
    Posts
    3,947

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    "That systems engineering jazz never worked during the Cold War no matter how hard some tried to push it. Plus, the problems we face today are not more complex, they're just different."
    Right! The COIN avant-garde seem to keep using the word "complex" to cover for "ignorance". Nothing we see today is new. We just haven't seen it for a while , or we haven't seen it around "here".

    To paraphrase a senior civilian instructor at the IDF staff collage "we need less systems theory and more military history."

    I'd add we'd be much better off with some bright, intuitive solutions than with the well thought out adaptive solutions from a lot of really smart people that we've tried thus far...
    I am very much for the bright intuitive stuff if it stands up to examination. A lot of the really smart stuff is falling apart faster than chocolate breech blocks, once the shooting starts.

    EG: As much as I like and respect Frank Hoffman, I still can't see why "Hybrid" is deemed useful or even an accurate description of the phenomena it seeks to describe.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

  14. #34
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    The State of Partachia, at the eastern end of the Mediterranean
    Posts
    3,947

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    Huba is a great American. You don't need to agree with everything he says, but you're a fool if you don't listen.
    Shaken his hand, and talked with him for 10 mins in a taxi queue, but the one time I heard him speak publicly, he lost me.

    I understood the concept, because it is basically how I think about things anyway; but the SOD material was so convaluted and complex in the way it was presented I was struggling to lead a team to do something "right" that none of us could figure out from the half day presentation we were given prior to being told to apply it. Huba is a patient man.
    SOD is flawed. It briefs well, but it doesn't stand up to real world conditions. In war on the simple survives! - and SOD is, as you point out, bizarrely complex.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

  15. #35
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    2,706

    Default Goal is to find a "simple" level of understanding

    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    SOD is flawed. It briefs well, but it doesn't stand up to real world conditions. In war on the simple survives! - and SOD is, as you point out, bizarrely complex.
    I suspect that Einstein began with a much more complex eqauation, and certainly an overvwhelming amount of raw information, before he identified what was really important and boiled it down to "E=MC2"

    Similarly in any environment like Iraq (and yes this was and is much more complex than any homogenous COIN where there is only one cause and one rebel group to address) you have some base theories and an overwhelming amount of information to sort through. Insurgent forces from a dozen states experiencing poor governance that see the US as the source of legitimacy of those poor governances so they take their show on the road to try to break US support (foreign fighters). States and non-states conducting UW to incite and facilitate insurgency (Iran and AQN), and multiple local insurgents working for all three brands of insurgency (some separatist, some revolutionary, and some resistance).

    To simply walk into a mess like that with a copy of "how the British did it in Malaysia" or "how the French did it in Algeria"; or even the US COIN manual under your arm; and you are likely doomed to flounder.

    What SOD is intended to do is to identify all of the various actors in the drama, their inter-relationships, motivations, etc. It is a journey to work out what info is important and then to understand that which is important in ways that derive or support development of solution sets aimed at root causes. Otherwise you simply follow the intel guys assessment of who the threat is ( here's your deck of cards) to execute the mission that you were originally given.

    I will say this though. I don't follow SOD or CACD in my work. It is all commonsense driven free flow (think Jazz with Chord changes, not sheet music) with an eclectic team of guys. The three senior guys are a Navy Sub driver, a Marine F-18 jock, and an SF guy who was conducting jury trials in Portland on 9/11.

    So, don't try to memorize and overly apply any of these processes. But do take the time to try to truly understand what the problem is before you rush off to try to solve it. My opinion, SOD will fade away simply because Nave is such a proud father that he refuses to compromise the intellectual purity of his product. Ok, that's his right; but too bad, because understanding and applying the basic logic of this is critical to take planning to the next level.
    Last edited by Bob's World; 04-01-2009 at 03:39 PM.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  16. #36
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Thumbs up I agree

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    Huba is a great American. You don't need to agree with everything he says, but you're a fool if you don't listen...
    He says a lot I agree with and I always listen -- but I have no problem telling the world when I do not agree with him or anyone else if there is or seems to me to be a reason to do so.

    In this case, I'm pointing out that I was a participant as we tried a number of systems engineering ideas in the 1949-95 era with virtually no success.

    Further, I am stating that in my opinion none of the 'problems' we face today are more complex or dangerous than were many of our earlier 'problems' though they are undeniably different.

    I made the comment because I'm firmly convinced based on observation in peace and war that our many efforts to make all commanders, leaders and managers equal through 'systems engineering' do not work and can give a false sense of security. Such a sense is dangerous and inimical to a smoothly functioning and competent armed force. It also prolongs an unsustainable quest for total fairness in promotions and assignments which cannot happen and which puts many wrong people in the wrong position at the wrong time. I can name and have named persons who are examples of that.

    I also wanted to point out that complexity of problems is in the eye of the beholder and that belief that one's problems are unique is an invitation to the strategic miscalculation you often mention here. As you have said, history is a broad guide and we ignore it at some peril. I know Huba is aware of that and I also know that he writes for a mass audience -- unfortunately, in doing that he can inadvertently write things he does not mean to be taken literally and without context some statements can be misconstrued (Hat Tip to J. Wolfsberger). Thus I was just providing my own 'context' to his statement on 'problems.'

    We've been in worse shape, economically, politically, geostrategically, militarily and even educationally. Maybe not in media competence or domestic automobile quality, tho'...

  17. #37
    Council Member Surferbeetle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    1,111

    Default Human Nature?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    I made the comment because I'm firmly convinced based on observation in peace and war that our many efforts to make all commanders, leaders and managers equal through 'systems engineering' do not work and can give a false sense of security. Such a sense is dangerous and inimical to a smoothly functioning and competent armed force.
    Ken,

    CT Lab has Antoine Bousquet's comments on his book The Scientific Way of Warfare:

    Finally, I would like to briefly comment on what progressively emerged from my study as a central dynamic at the heart of both military practice and scientific theory and did eventually structure much of my thinking: the relationship between order and chaos. The human psyche, the organisation of human society, and the production of knowledge all strive for order and regularity and to keep at bay what threatens to bring disruption and meaninglessness into them. However, not only does chaos inevitably resurface with the capacity to upset the most stable and established of arrangements but it seems to be in fact a necessary condition of creativity and even order itself. Science has recurrently needed to concede to chaos and indeterminacy to permit the development of its understanding of the natural world, notably through the introduction of probabilities or non-linear dynamics. Throughout the development of the sciences I have charted, this tension between their drive for predictability and the limits they consistently encounter has been a perennial constant, even if the ways in which these tensions are navigated are never quite the same. What one might characterise as an on-going dialectic between chaos and order (I tend to privilege Edgar Morin’s notion of dialogic understood as the simultaneous competition, antagonism and complementarity of distinct logics and for which there exists no possible higher synthesis that might resolve this tension) is echoed in the forms taken by the organisation of military force. Indeed, all attempts to bring complete control and predictability prove to be inherently self-defeating while a tolerance for (and capacity to profit from) chaos and contingency seems an enduring necessity.
    Regards,

    Steve
    Last edited by Surferbeetle; 04-05-2009 at 05:34 AM.
    Sapere Aude

  18. #38
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Default Mostly. Not much excuse for it, IMO...

    This is human nature:
    "The human psyche, the organisation of human society, and the production of knowledge all strive for order and regularity and to keep at bay what threatens to bring disruption and meaninglessness into them."
    This, OTOH, is history:
    Indeed, all attempts to bring complete control and predictability prove to be inherently self-defeating while a tolerance for (and capacity to profit from) chaos and contingency seems an enduring necessity.
    and should allow us to over come the natural inclination...

    Intuitive leaders and commanders versus metrication...

  19. #39
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Newport News, VA
    Posts
    150

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    This is human nature:This, OTOH, is history:and should allow us to over come the natural inclination...

    Intuitive leaders and commanders versus metrication...
    Unfortunately Ken I believe that of all societies in human history, we are the most obsessed with quantification (metrication - great word). Every last redoubt of the intuitive in the end gets overwhelmed by the statisticians, the analysts, and the systematizers. Experience rarely ever triumphs over the numbers, unfortunately.
    He cloaked himself in a veil of impenetrable terminology.

  20. #40
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Default I know but my wife thinks gray hair is cool so I try to make

    mine even more gray by wanting things I cannot have...

    Still, I have faith -- some day, some way, we'll figure out how to measure talent and competence, fine tune ego and ambition and achieve military perfection.

    Briefly. Then Congress will change the rules.

Similar Threads

  1. Urban / City Warfare (merged thread)
    By DDilegge in forum Futurists & Theorists
    Replies: 201
    Last Post: 05-21-2020, 11:24 AM
  2. Nation-Building Elevated
    By SWJED in forum Government Agencies & Officials
    Replies: 97
    Last Post: 01-30-2010, 01:35 AM
  3. Replies: 27
    Last Post: 06-12-2008, 06:21 PM
  4. MCOs and SSOs in the 2008 edition of FM 3-0 Operations
    By Norfolk in forum Doctrine & TTPs
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 03-17-2008, 12:15 AM
  5. Disarming the Local Population
    By CSC2005 in forum Doctrine & TTPs
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 08-08-2006, 01:10 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •