OSINT Assessment of the Afghan War

[Cavguy]

Not a success in SVN; and even a less likelihood in Astan.

Your concern was security for villagers who decide to co-operate. Marine CAP in Nam was the closest thing I thought of (absent an effective police force) to provide that security, bringing together a regular mainforce unit and a locally-recruited militia force.

I'm not suggesting CAP as the Holy Grail. First, it was a pilot program (some 800 villages and hamlets were "capped" - the highest number at any one time was just over 100 - a very small % of SVN's villages and hamlets); and a good pilot program does not mean a successful macro program. Second, its "success metrics" varied, depending on whether the ville was anti-VC, neutral or pro-VC, and the motivation of both Marine and village leadership. Third, not everyone is cut out to be a CAPer - so, recruitment was a problem.

Agree on the math problem - IF you put a CAP-like org in each hamlet. But each village/hamlet doesn't need its own CAP - only key ones as identified in your analysis of the area. Clear, Hold, Build, and move on - but sustain the ones left behind.

The personnel embedded don't necessarily have to be coalition either.

Niel

[jmm99]

from Cav
The personnel embedded don't necessarily have to be coalition either.

Could be indigenous mainforce (army or gendarmerie) + local militia Puffs - assuming that the mainforce is competent to do CAPing. ARVN wasn't in SVN; on Astan forces, that's a conclusion to be reached by you and others.

Also, more or less agree (how's that for a lawyerly line ) with this:

from Cav
But each village/hamlet doesn't need its own CAP - only key ones as identified in your analysis of the area.

I'll buy this if you (using "you" generically for a competent field officer) make the analysis for your TAOR. I'd be afraid that "political action" would start calling the shots either at a higher military level (to shift personnel to their higher priorities; e.g., Westmoreland in SVN - "the military professionalism of the Marines falls short.." - p.3); or at a still higher civilian level for any number of reasons inconsistent with sound military tactics.

Hmm...

from Cav
Clear, Hold, Build, and move on - but sustain the ones left behind.

CAP wasn't a "Build" operation. When CAP left and ARVN took over, the ville was subject to the same VCI pressures. So, agreed that "build" and "sustain" are essential unless a permanent CAP-like garrison is the plan.

If IIRC, your company accomplished that essential in your 2nd OIF tour - after you gained a barracks PhD in counter-insurgency tactics. Good job.
Has the "sustain" held up there ? - if you can say.

Still, in the long run, "sustain" requires political action and good governance by the incumbant nation outside of the scope of direct military actions. Not in SVN; perhaps, in Astan ?

These questions could be getting nearer to OpSec issues than we should go.

[Cavguy]

Could be indigenous mainforce (army or gendarmerie) + local militia Puffs - assuming that the mainforce is competent to do CAPing. ARVN wasn't in SVN; on Astan forces, that's a conclusion to be reached by you and others.

I'll buy this if you (using "you" generically for a competent field officer) make the analysis for your TAOR. I'd be afraid that "political action" would start calling the shots either at a higher military level (to shift personnel to their higher priorities; e.g., Westmoreland in SVN - "the military professionalism of the Marines falls short.." - p.3); or at a still higher civilian level for any number of reasons inconsistent with sound military tactics.

Hmm...

Certainly and always a risk. I would argue (as did my BN CO at the time) that we withdrew from Tal Afar far too quickly in late 2006. In the context of the time (wheels coming off the bus), you couldn't justify keeping an entire BCT (Feb-May), and then a heavy BN (May 06 -Oct 06) comitted to an area with only .2 violent incidents daily when you had other cities (like Ramadi) in flames.

We knew that the civil governance and HN security forces weren't fully prepared to assume full responsibility for the AO, but were sent south anyway, and risk was accepted. 3-4 CAV (a light div cav sqdn) replaced 2-37 AR in October and subsequently withdrew outside the city to FOB Sykes - this small organization was responsible for all of west Ninewah (a sizeable chunk of land).

Fortunately, things have held together there, the local government and security forces have maintained order despite a few hiccups. I would offer we were more lucky than good in some respects. However, it would not have succeeded if not for the efforts described by our BN S5 in this article.

I would also submit the MNC-I leadership at the time just had a bad set of choices all around, and made a decision to accept risk of re-failure in Tal Afar in order to attempt to stabilize other, more critical locations.

On the analysis comment, once you understand what is unique about COIN and read FM 3-24, you can use systems like ASCOPE to analyze your environment, it becomes much easier to do proper "Clear, Hold, Build". Of course, this requires a good understanding of the nature of insurgencies and some good leadership. (sorry, promo for some classes I use in the COIN Knowledge Center under OPD/NCOPD)

CAP wasn't a "Build" operation. When CAP left and ARVN took over, the ville was subject to the same VCI pressures. So, agreed that "build" and "sustain" are essential unless a permanent CAP-like garrison is the plan.

Exactly.

If IIRC, your company accomplished that essential in your 2nd OIF tour - after you gained a barracks PhD in counter-insurgency tactics. Good job.
Has the "sustain" held up there ? - if you can say.

As far as I know it has. I do know that when I left in Feb 07, there had been zero enemy SIGACTs in Sa'ad since May 06.

Still, in the long run, "sustain" requires political action and good governance by the incumbant nation outside of the scope of direct military actions. Not in SVN; perhaps, in Astan ?

Absolutely. You point out the RVN was not capable of this. Neither were the IP's or IA when we began operations in Tal Afar or Ramadi. By the time we left, they were very far along, and in the lead in most cases. As I described in my "Sisyphus" article, we had to partner completely with HN to achieve success.

You've given me a great idea for another article.

[jmm99]

from Cav
You've given me a great idea for another article

but I'd modify that to - I gave you another idea for a great article. A little bit of sucking up, but you do write well.

I'll take a look at your "promo" stuff at home - have to use another computer. This one does not do Powerpoint.

[jmm99]

here and at home, where I read your reading assignment.

Your dynamic ball and stick molecular model (forget which .ppt) of how insurgency and counter-insurgency worked fascinated me. Probably because I slogged through an engineering school as a Chem major.

So, what did happen on Market Street with its home-grown Stan the C-4 Man ?

Also kept getting a trailer for John Milius' Red Dawn - NRA infiltration ?

I should mention I probably used the wrong word ("competence") about ARVN, which you logically enough translated to "capable". I should have used "disinclined" (or some such), because of many political, economic, family and personal factors. Besides knowing the language and culture, some of their officers (usually long-serving & down the totem pole) were former VM in the very early days.

[BJohnC]

I co-authored the above article.

I apologise for being so slow in my response here. I have been out of the country for work.

After reading the above comments I decided that because my knowledge of this facet of counter insurgency is less than complete that I ought to ask someone with first hand experience for their input. As I am fairly sure this was done under Chatham House Rules i cannot identify said individual, although it would be fair to say that he is an expert on the strategic considerations in Afghanistan and one of the UK's top serving military officers.

Specifically, I asked for his thoughts on a Strategic Hamlets type programme albeit modified for the Afghan situation, bearing in mind the platoon houses disaster...

So for what its worth here is a summary of his (informal) response ...

Summary of Officer A's Thoughts on Platoon Houses:
When the Brits took over from the Americans in 05-06 it represented a massive increase in forces in the Lashkar Gar area from 130ish to over 4000. Because of the low number of Americans present previously, they had not ventured out much. As the Brits moved out, they over extended themselves and moved up to the three platoon houses where a protracted engagement between the Paras and Taliban commenced. Incidentally, the Uk fired more rounds in 2nd half of 06 in Afghanistan than it did in either of the gulf wars. Fortunately the forces were significant enough at these platoon houses that they could just about look after themselves but eventually we were forced to pull back from those platoon houses. The platoon houses had become targets and were reducing overall security in those areas - they were a tactical mistake that came about for a variety of reasons. [Declined to go into further details as time was pressing although admitting he could talk for hours on it]

Summary of Officer A's Thoughts on Strategic Hamlets:
Essentially a redeployment of population into managed developments - protect these areas and then build out. He thought there was a logic to doing the same in Afghanistan but he would call the strategic Hamlet approach a "tactic" that would depend on what the over all strategy was. If the strategy was to secure the northern boundary (between Pashun population / Taliban Heartland and the relatively peaceful north) then it might be appropriate - essentially, Hamlets would be a tactic that he "would dine on a la carte" depending on what one had decided the strategy was. If a strategic hamlets type tactic was adopted, he would make sure it was part of the wider strategy, at the same time as "securing" the strategic hamlet he would pay equal attention to judicial reform, the police and development in those areas, with a concrete view as to how to build out. But he "wouldn't do it as we have done a lot" as a rather scatter gun thing - "like we did with home guards" with bits and pieces of them all over the place as we sort of tried to get to grips with it. In summary he thought it would be appropriate within the context of a coherent strategy; At this point his colleague interjected and pointed out how painfully awkward it was having to explain to the Afghans why you have just spent 5 years disarming them only to give them their guns back in the space of 6 months because they were now civilian defense volunteers.

Now I am not sure what you want to glean from that, I am sorry it wasn't in a more formal format but I am paraphrasing from a recorded conversation and i am currently too short on time on a Wednesday morning to rewrite the conversation as an article.

B.Cook

[davidbfpo]

At this point his colleague interjected and pointed out how painfully awkward it was having to explain to the Afghans why you have just spent 5 years disarming them only to give them their guns back in the space of 6 months because they were now civilian defense volunteers.

B.Cook,

That sentence is a real 'gem' and this failure to communicate to the locals regularly features on SWJ. How did we manage this in Malaya?

Thanks for the update.

davidbfpo