Sorry about that. New link is as follows:

http://sites.google.com/site/djonrob...attredirects=0

Taking just the Pashtun half of Astan, my question is how many hamlets and villages are there ? The answer would give at least a ballpark estimate of the required force structure and personnel requirements.
The unsatisfying answer is that we don't really know. One of my team members proposed simply taking the population of each province, not counting major population centers (Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar, etc. etc.), and dividing that by a rough average of the population of a village...say 750 (NB, this is a complete WAG). Figure that one standard-sized dismounted infantry company can maybe cover two villages at most...and scale that up for the total force level you need.

But the ultimate question that I think JMM is asking is whether we could apply the Strategic Hamlet program to Afghanistan. What made that program work in Malaya was that it did two things: it isolated elements of the population that were most susceptible to CT radicalization, while at the same time giving those elements a long-term stake in the viability of the Malayan state. How do we do that in a country where primary loyalties are to clan and tribe? There is a vague concept of an Afghan national idea, but it's still vague, and I'm willing to bet that concept isn't the same across all the various ethnic groups. Malaya had a history of colonial governance and something approaching central administration that Afghanistan doesn't.

So for that reason, I don't think the Strategic Hamlet concept is really transferrable. You might get a short-term dropoff in violence, if your security forces are competent enough to keep the hamlets secure. But unless that initiative is accompanied by political reform that gives the hamlets' populations some kind of a stake in the success of their government, all you're going to end up doing is creating a political underclass that will have even more reason not to like you.

Basically, I think what it comes down to is that the hamlets are already there. Treat each village as its own hamlet, dispense reconstruction/political aid on that level, and get the ISAF forces out into the villages. These people have lived on the land they're on for a very long time...uprooting them and transplating them somewhere else is not likely to be helpful.