Counter Terrorism (merged thread)

[davidbfpo]

A fascinating 66 minute talk by Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair's Chief of Staff, on this fraught question and ranges around the world. Notably talking on Colombia and Northern Ireland. The event was before the referendum in Colombia:http://www.britac.ac.uk/video/talking-terrorists

Precis:

Jonathan Powell discussed his ten years as Chief of Staff to the Prime Minister, Tony Blair, from 1997 – 2007 and his role as chief negotiator on the Northern Ireland peace process. Since then he has set up Inter-Mediate, a charity that promotes conflict resolution and reconciliation around the world. He will highlight the challenges of talking to terrorists around the world, most recently in Colombia.

His Wiki bio reminded me Powell had been a diplomat:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonath...abour_adviser)

[davidbfpo]

A sombre analysis by a Canadian analyst via ICCT based in Holland, after recent attacks.

A key passage:

Perhaps most importantly, the advent of cars as weapons of destruction may mean we are moving into an era of all-but-unstoppable acts of terrorism. When the commonplace becomes the tool of choice security and law enforcement agencies lose an important advantage: the ability to monitor the acquisition of guns or the manufacture of explosives.

(Later) We may in the end need to accept a certain background level of successful terrorist attacks, much like we do for other serious crimes like murder and violent assault. This is not an admission of failure nor an act of surrender: it is an acknowledgement that our security agencies, which are very professional and capable and which stop the vast majority of planned attacks, are not perfect and should not be subjected to an unreasonable standard.

Link:https://icct.nl/publication/an-era-o...ble-terrorism/

A BBC overview of recent attacks:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-40000952

I do wonder if the public, let alone politicians can resist the calls for "better security" and accept a level of such attacks.

[davidbfpo]

The BBC has broadcast a half hour documentary in London, a regional programmme oddly; it is not on YouTube, but will appear on BBC World News see:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/n3ct1kws

The reporter is Raffaello Pantucci, of RUSI and he has written a summary on his website. It ends with, lightly edited, this and IMHO applies beyond the UK:

Clearly radical material disseminated online will fan the flames of ideas, and mean that groups like Isil will be able to maintain their notoriety and draw people to themselves. But it is the online manipulation that is turning these long-distance online relationships into terrorist attacks, and individuals like Junaid are able to manipulate people into launching attacks that are difficult to prevent in western capitals.

And while government can spend more money on staff and surveillance, when the style of attack is so individual, basic and diffuse, it becomes very difficult to maintain complete control.

Link:https://raffaellopantucci.com/2017/0...error-by-text/

[davidbfpo]

Brain Jenkins @ RAND is always sensible and this short article reviews the current furore, 'Vehicular Terrorism: Weighting the Benefits and Worth, of Prevention.

A "taster":

This latest in a string of such attacks has added urgency to discussions of what can be done to prevent terrorists from using vehicles as weapons. In the lexicon of the security world, these ideas come under the heading of “hostile vehicle mitigation measures,” and they include a broad range of possibilities. Mitigation, not prevention, is the operative word here—cities are filled with pedestrians and vehicles, in some cases, separated by mere inches. Many of the measures would be disruptive and costly and could easily be circumvented, which leads to an uncomfortable question: Do they represent a good investment?

Link:https://www.rand.org/blog/2017/09/ve...and-worth.html

[davidbfpo]

Four other threads in this arena have been merged in after a review; adding nearly 30k views.

[davidbfpo]

From an Australian think tank and their explanation:

This is the fifth edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI). The report provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last 17 years in covering the period from the beginning of 2000 to the end of 2016. The GTI is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) and is based on data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Data for the GTD is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START); a Department of Homeland Security Centre of Excellence led by the University of Maryland. The GTD is considered to be the most comprehensive global dataset on terrorist activity and has now codified over 170,000 terrorist incidents

It is a large report, so take what you need.
Link:http://visionofhumanity.org/app/uplo...Index-2017.pdf

[davidbfpo]

Catching up I found this article by Scott Atran, sub-titled:

The atrocities in Sri Lanka are part of a spiral of violence that poses profound questions for liberal societies

Later:

The spread of this transnational terrorism, whether Islamist revivalism or resurgent ethno-nationalism, is fragmenting the social and political consensus globally. That is precisely its aim: to create the void that will usher in a new world, with no room for innocents on the other side, and no “grey zone” in between.

Link:https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ight-sri-lanka

Then today Jason Burke asks:

Are there lessons we can learn from last week’s atrocities in Sri Lanka?

He has this key passage on being radicalised:

Crucially, someone vulnerable to radicalisation at one moment in their life may be much less so just months later. A key element in the explanations of former terrorists for their own actions – as well as in accounts given by Nazi mass killers and others – is that their acts are necessary to head off a catastrophic outcome for their community, that they are an obligation for any rational individual. Combine this with the total dehumanisation of the victims – another product of groupthink, separation and propaganda – and you are already a long way to mass murder, whether in a death camp, through an artificial famine, by a mob armed with knives and axes, or a multiple suicide bombing.

Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ombings-terror

Both have a global outlook, so will be copied to the general CT thread.