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Thread: SECDEF's DoD Budget Proposals

  1. #1
    Council Member Cavguy's Avatar
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    Default SECDEF's DoD Budget Proposals

    All,

    Fascinating press conference. In summary:

    Recommended Termination:

    F-22 (stopped @ 187)
    FCS vehicles (all - unsure of NLOS-C)
    DDG-1000
    Further C-17 Buys
    Army BCT's halted @ 45 vice 48 to increase available manning, no change in endstrength increase though.
    Presidential Helo
    Next-Gen bomber (pending QDR)
    JIEDDO and other ad-hoc organizations
    TSAT cancelled
    Winners:

    F-35 increase
    F-18 increase
    UAV Increase
    TF Odin-like increase
    More $$ for helos - crews and airframes (?)
    More SF support
    DDG-51 restart
    LCS increase
    No change/limited info:

    JTLV
    EFV
    Carriers (10)
    FCS "Spinouts"

    Gates told Congress basically to "do the right thing". That I will be interested to see.

    Can't wait for Congress' and the defense lobby's reaction ....
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    Well, good luck to him, I don't think Congress is going to play ball, but we can always hope.

    Did he give any estimates on how much this would reduce the defense budget? Also, what about a reset for the Army and Marines?

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    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default Gates Fights Last War

    Gates Fights Last War

    Kori Schake
    Foreign Policy

    http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/post...t_the_last_war

    Gates is setting a course to focus on counterinsurgency that will likely come at the expense of other military capabilities when budget trade-offs need to be made. The wars we are fighting do not refute transformation. Much of what Rumsfeld identified as the central advantages and central weaknesses of our military actually have been validated: our space infrastructure is too weak for the increasing demands we place on it; integrating battlefield information with long-distance precision strike allows U.S. forces to react with a dominating speed; and persistent surveillance is revolutionizing our operations.

    Gates's emphasis on institutionalizing counterinsurgency sounds remarkably like fighting the last war, and too little effort has been directed toward redressing those vulnerabilities in U.S. military power most likely to produce losses in future wars. The United States is already reasonably good at counterinsurgency, as a result of the Iraq war, and the equipment has adapted relatively quickly despite a balky Pentagon bureaucracy. Gates is adopting a conservative approach that will make other, harder adaptations -- like handling cyber attacks -- more difficult in the future.
    And so it begins...

    v/r

    Mike

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    Two major surprises. Halting growth of BCT's at 45 in order for the manning levels to catch up is one of them, but in reality it's only two less (minus the EBCT at Bliss and since FCS is on the way out, there's no reason for this BCT to stick around). The other is the JIEDDO and organizations like that (ad-hoc). I wonder what the other organizations are - AWG?
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    This makes me cry inside:

    Second, we will terminate the Air Force Combat Search and Rescue X (CSAR-X) helicopter program. This program has a troubled acquisition history and raises the fundamental question of whether this important mission can only be accomplished by yet another single-service solution with single-purpose aircraft. We will take a fresh look at the requirement behind this program and develop a more sustainable approach.
    Say goodbye to Air Force rotary wing aviation and the only dedicated personnel recovery force in DoD.

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    Council Member Danny's Avatar
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    Default I too noticed ...

    That the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle survived. I'm rather surprised, actually. So be it. They'd better get it right, and soon, without the cost overruns and system failures that have plagued it.

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    i pwnd ur ooda loop selil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    Gates is adopting a conservative approach that will make other, harder adaptations -- like handling cyber attacks -- more difficult in the future.
    Kori Schake
    Foreign Policy
    Let me just express in a few words my thoughts that a conservative approach based on fighting insurgencies will impact handling cyber attacks. Since cyber attacks most closely align with low intensity conflict. Since never has a cyber attack manifested as a high intensity conflict. While large militaries may be capable of fighting on multiple fronts they have little in the way of capability of fighting cyber. Large unwieldily forces with strict hierarchies have absolutely no place in cyber. Boo hisss. Throwing cyber out as a lost capability is not only wrong it impeaches the writer.
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    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
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    Question Actually I may have gotten a different take on that one

    Quote Originally Posted by selil View Post
    Let me just express in a few words my thoughts that a conservative approach based on fighting insurgencies will impact handling cyber attacks. Since cyber attacks most closely align with low intensity conflict. Since never has a cyber attack manifested as a high intensity conflict. While large militaries may be capable of fighting on multiple fronts they have little in the way of capability of fighting cyber. Large unwieldy forces with strict hierarchies have absolutely no place in cyber. Boo hisss. Throwing cyber out as a lost capability is not only wrong it impeaches the writer.
    What I heard was intelligence and related fields tool sets expanded and a push upward in the number of those who are training to be cyber focused with the overall impression of agility in thought action and aquisition related to such.

    May be wrong but I think it may be more of what your looking for and less behemoth then many might have expected.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
    Did he give any estimates on how much this would reduce the defense budget? Also, what about a reset for the Army and Marines?
    That is what I am curious about - at some point in the not too distant future, the ground combat vehicle fleet is going to need to be recapitalized. Is there any provision for this? Most of what we have is 80s vintage and has been at war for years now. How much life can reset eke out of the existing fleet and will it continue to be funded?
    He cloaked himself in a veil of impenetrable terminology.

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    Council Member 82redleg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ski View Post
    Two major surprises. Halting growth of BCT's at 45 in order for the manning levels to catch up is one of them, but in reality it's only two less (minus the EBCT at Bliss and since FCS is on the way out, there's no reason for this BCT to stick around). The other is the JIEDDO and organizations like that (ad-hoc). I wonder what the other organizations are - AWG?
    Actually, the EBCT made 49 BCTs- the goal was 48 deployable BCTs- 10 DIVs x 4 BCTs, plus 5 separates (173, 2 ACR, 3 ACR, 170 HBCT, 172 HBCT) and 5/3 ID, 5/4 ID and 6/1AD (the EBCT is 5/1AD).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Entropy View Post
    Say goodbye to Air Force rotary wing aviation and the only dedicated personnel recovery force in DoD.
    I don't know how closely you've followed this fiasco, but if they hadn't scrapped it, it would probably have resulted in folks getting sacked, or worse. It's a very sorry story when studied in detail.
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    No real loss in my opinion anyway it's sliced. I was never a big fan of the FCS concept, even more so after the costs ballooned by 200%.


    Quote Originally Posted by 82redleg View Post
    Actually, the EBCT made 49 BCTs- the goal was 48 deployable BCTs- 10 DIVs x 4 BCTs, plus 5 separates (173, 2 ACR, 3 ACR, 170 HBCT, 172 HBCT) and 5/3 ID, 5/4 ID and 6/1AD (the EBCT is 5/1AD).
    "Speak English! said the Eaglet. "I don't know the meaning of half those long words, and what's more, I don't believe you do either!"

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    Default Cost Savings

    As for cost savings... they declined to comment based on the fact that they didn't discuss classified programs... Although Mr Gates made a distinct effort to clarify that the program recommendations were NOT based on a real or perceived budget top line... In his words (paraphrased) this was about doing the right thing...

    As for FCS, and Army vehicle recapitalization, Mr Gates was specific in discussing the need to recapitalize the Army fleet, and that there was a cost in $ and time by cutting FCS vehicles, but that it was in his mind the right thing to do... so I think they have probably placed a wedge in for recapitalizing the fleet without really knowing what shape that recapitalization will take...

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    Council Member J Wolfsberger's Avatar
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    Default Kori Schake

    Hoover Research Fellow

    "Expertise: national security strategy, the effective use of military force, European politics"

    If the quality of thought in her article is representative of a Hoover Institute expert, they've fallen on hard times.
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    i pwnd ur ooda loop selil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Humphrey View Post
    What I heard was intelligence and related fields tool sets expanded and a push upward in the number of those who are training to be cyber focused with the overall impression of agility in thought action and aquisition related to such.

    May be wrong but I think it may be more of what your looking for and less behemoth then many might have expected.
    I think you're responding to the secdef comments and I'm responding to the catch all at the end of the article written by Kori Schake. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

    Shake closed her article with

    Gates is adopting a conservative approach that will make other, harder adaptations -- like handling cyber attacks -- more difficult in the future.
    I can't agree with that sentiment. Though I'm always willing to listen it just seems way off base.
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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by J Wolfsberger View Post
    Hoover Research Fellow

    "Expertise: national security strategy, the effective use of military force, European politics"

    If the quality of thought in her article is representative of a Hoover Institute expert, they've fallen on hard times.
    Wow... I was just musing posting on just this topic but considered it a little bit "bad form," ... but since you say it, I must concur.

    I was underwhelmed as to both the assertions and the evidence or even reasons to support them. May be a smart chap, but it did not shine through in the article.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Default True

    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    Wow... I was just musing posting on just this topic but considered it a little bit "bad form," ... but since you say it, I must concur.

    I was underwhelmed as to both the assertions and the evidence or even reasons to support them. May be a smart chap, but it did not shine through in the article.
    I watched the NCAA championship last night. I'm a huge Carolina fan. Does that make me an expert on basketball? I can hardly make a free throw.

    v/r

    Mike

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    Council Member J Wolfsberger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stevely View Post
    That is what I am curious about - at some point in the not too distant future, the ground combat vehicle fleet is going to need to be recapitalized. Is there any provision for this? Most of what we have is 80s vintage and has been at war for years now. How much life can reset eke out of the existing fleet and will it continue to be funded?
    Gates said: "But it is important to remember that every Defense dollar spent to overinsure against a remote or diminishing risk or, in effect, to run up the score in capability where the United States is already dominant is a dollar not available to take care of our people, reset the force, win the wars we are in, and improve capabilities in areas where we are underinvested and potentially vulnerable." (Emphasis added.) I assume (yes, I know ) that he's referring to recapitalizing the current ground force vehicle fleet.
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    Default Back to begging for paper and staples....

    Just from my foxhole, it looks like a lot of this is targeted at incorporating things that were born in supplemental into the "regular" budget.

    Obviously the writing is on the wall – we can't continue to fund transformation, expansions of Special Operations and good ideas for GWOT one supplement at a time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    I don't know how closely you've followed this fiasco, but if they hadn't scrapped it, it would probably have resulted in folks getting sacked, or worse. It's a very sorry story when studied in detail.
    Yeah I have. There's no question the Air Force completely screwed up the competition for the HH-60 replacement - I just hope this isn't throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

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