Quote Originally Posted by tequila View Post
However, I think it fails to take into account the ability of the Taliban and its motives, as well as the possible reaction of Pakistan and Iran. The GoA is experiencing a crisis of legitimacy at the moment in the international arena and a slow-motion destruction of said legitimacy in the eyes of the Afghan public. The withdrawal of foreign forces will mean in reality handing on-the-ground control over entire provinces of Afghanistan over to the Taliban and its allies. It is difficult to see how the GoA can survive in such a state.

Such a GoA would likely be forced to bandwagon support from what commanders it could bribe or manhandle to its side. Iran, and more importantly, the Pakistani military establishment, would seek out similar allies to entrench their own interests. Large segments of Pakistan's military appear to believe that Pakistan's interests are best served by aligning with the Taliban, the HiG, and the Haqqanis rather than the GoA.

The examples of El Salvador, the Philippines, and Colombia lack the troublesome neighbors that Afghanistan has, as well as the centrality to the jihadi universe that Afghanistan represents. All three states were also far more advanced and able than the GoA or the Afghan Army and Police are ever likely to be, even with American assistance.
Tequila,

Excellent points; however, we're probably going to face those issues regardless of the strategy we choose. We disrupted the balance of powers in SW Asia with our invasions in Iraq and Afghanistan. As the scientists say, for every action there is an equal reaction. I imagine we will see a lot of brinksmanship, deception, and coercion as different states seek hegemony.

We cannot copy/paste the Phillipines/ El Salv/ or Colombia solution into Afghanistan. We have to use METT-TC.

Slap- I've got my homework.

v/r

Mike