Winning the War in Afghanistan

[Steve the Planner]

The immortal words of Winnie the Pooh when confronted with endless honey pot problems: "Think, think, think!"

LA Times carried a really insightful article (The Afghanistan Problem) by Carnegie Endowment's visiting scholar Gilles Dorronsoro.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/...,2650413.story

"I was in Afghanistan during the summer, as 20,000 coalition troops tried to retake Helmand province, one of 11 provinces now under de facto Taliban control. But over three months, during which they sustained significant casualties, the troops failed to take control of even a third of the area. The coalition had built an archipelago of small outposts, leaving much of the territory between unsecured. As one Afghan told me in Kandahar, "The Americans control what they see." Imagine how many troops -- and how many casualties -- it would take to secure every one of those provinces, even under the most promising circumstances."

He goes on to describe many of the unique practical and cultural limitations of any strategy in Afghanistan, with rich allusions to his background in Afghanistan and its' history and peoples. He particularly draws the distinction between urban areas, where cooperation and aid strategies can work, and why they do not work in the unique, and highly independent atmosphere of a Pashtun village:

"History is not encouraging. In two centuries, the Pashtuns have never once tolerated a permanent presence of armed foreigners. Defending families and villages is a cultural duty of local men, and the presence of outsiders is generally perceived as a threat, especially when they are non-Muslim. Historical memories are long in this part of the world. Some Afghans still say prayers for mujahedin who fought against the British -- in the 19th century."

At the end, he concludes that the best available course is to focus on the cities, where some stability is possible, while building up a capable Afghan force.

My enjoyment in reading this and other work by Dorronsoro is that the breadth of his insights is remarkable, and often overlooked.

Steve