Winning the War in Afghanistan

[slapout9]

I think he fully believes it. I felt that he aimed well when trying to tell the Karzai govt. that it is now living on borrowed time.

JC, I saw a body language expert on CNN today(named Patti Woods) she doesn't think he believes it either. This is based upon his unusual head movements during the speech. If I can find the clip I woll post it.

[jcustis]

JC, I saw a body language expert on CNN today(named Patti Woods) she doesn't think he believes it either. This is based upon his unusual head movements during the speech. If I can find the clip I woll post it.

Body language expert? What will the media think of next?

[slapout9]

Body language expert? What will the media think of next?

This is the lady can't find the clip from last night though.
http://www.pattiwood.net/

[davidbfpo]

Stephen Tankel's measured analysis is worth reading: http://icsr.info/blog/First-Impressions

His last sentence I expect reflects the views of many in and outside Afghanistan:

The U.S. is gambling a lot on the ability to build an Afghan army and Afghan police force in the next 18 months. What happens if [or when, depending on your degree of pessimism] this does not come together?

Or the Australian CT analyst's comments:http://allthingsct.wordpress.com/200...obamas-speech/ She cites and qualifies the comments after her experience in Indonesia:

And there is NO way the Afghan forces will be up to scratch anytime soon. I’m no military trainer or expert but I was involved in counter terrorism capacity building efforts in my former life. This is a much easier job and even in Indonesia it took a long long time to do. And they have a functioning state.

[davidbfpo]

From RUSI, a Whitehall think tank (I'm a member):http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...4B177FBEE2288/

At present rates, some 400,000 ANSF personnel could be through the training programmes by 2013.They would need a year of operational support, so it might be regarded as effective from 2014, the earliest realistic date when the Coalition's 140,000 might begin seriously drawing down.....The final, unspoken, variable is the loyalty of trained and equipped ANSF personnel as they go out to work in the new Afghanistan.