While I too am writing from an armchair far removed and have not served in Afghanistan, I have talked and do talk with those who have and are there now. Based on my own small knowledge of the US, its Army and the events in Afghanistan as well the words of those to whom I talk, it strikes me that this from Taabistan:
It seems to me that the military leaders are very apprehensive of a draw down of the military, even though most civilian experts (Andrew Wilder, Rory Stewart, Michael Semple and myself) have been advocating it for years. They believe they are making progress and the changes by Obama to be detrimental to that "success."
is quite likely far more indicative of the US military 'Can-Do' attitude, a reluctance to admit lack of success and concern over impending budget cuts than it is a valid military assessment -- or, far more importantly, a valid political assessment...

The sensing I get from folks on the ground is that most units are doing a little good but the bulk of contacts that achieve much real success in any measure are by the SOF elements, the rest are there, doing their best under poor circumstances. Those include but aren't limited to the short tour length, poor rotation plans, excessive force protection efforts all affected by the foolishly announced draw down and departure 'time table' and the known poor political effort that bizarrely envisioned making Afghanistan into a unitary modern state in a short time -- an effort doomed before it started.

One gets a sensing the Troops are doing what's asked of them to the best of their ability (significant training shortfalls considered) but that in far too many cases, the wrong things have been and are being asked. That means a lot of Marines and Soldiers are being frittered and misused.

To what purpose?

All that said, IMO the potential for "a reduction in foreign aid to curb corruption and promote patient re-building, and a larger civilian presence (diplomats) that will engage in negotiations and treaties with the Taliban?" is not likely to be a significant improvement. Slight, yes -- but no major change in trajectory.

"Rebuilding Afghanistan" is a great example of the dictum "be careful what you want; you may get it..."