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Thread: Winning the War in Afghanistan

  1. #221
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Not Proven...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    For oh so many reasons, we should not confuse Afghanistan with Vietnam.
    Totally agree; two very different things and very different times. They will only become more alike if we are perceived as departing Afghanistan too quickly.
    We went to Vietnam to stop the spread of communism and to support a democratic government in the South (or that is how I have it in my head)
    Actually, the Kennedy brothers wanted to boost a stagnant economy and look tough but that's another thread.
    We went to Afghanistan to punish AQ and to deny them Afghanistan as a sanctuary by facilitating the Northern Alliance's efforts to remove them from power.
    Agreed. That was the initial impetus. That changed. You may know why, I do not.
    Often what we pass off as "moral duty" is more often an issue of "face." Not saying that face is not important, just saying that it isn't moral duty.
    Agree, as I said to WM , 'moral' for any nation is a misnomer; it's shorthand. Nations do not have morals or morally related issues.

    Duty, however, does get closer to the truth. 'Face' doesn't bother me; spend more time in the FE and you get comfortable with all the permutations. The basic issue, really is 'obligation.' It matters to one what one construes as an obligation -- however, in this case, what matters a great deal is not how you or I consider the issue but how the rest of the world will construe things.
    If "It would be embarrassing" was a legitimate rationale for not doing something that you otherwise should do or an excuse for poor or illegal behave, the world would be a very different place. Judges hear every excuse under the sun, but I would never advise a client to apply the "it would have been embarrassing" defense.
    No one has said it would be embarrassing. That's not a really great diversionary attempt...

    The issue, Counselor, is that the Client's predecessor for seven years voluntarily and publicly obligated himself and his heirs and assigns to fulfillment of a task which Client has recently affirmed. The question that arises is not the extent to which that obligation is binding or defensible before the law, nor one of potential embarrassment for failure to perform or fulfill an assumed obligation.

    The question is one of consequences which are likely to accrue from a failure of performance and oral contract fulfillment.

    Specifically, what effect will yet another abrogation have on community attitudes toward the Client? Given the known predilection of certain members of the community to seek out weaknesses and exploit them and some other members to encourage those actions provided they are not seen to be in support the potential for further attacks of suspicious provenance on said heirs and assigns would seem to be enhanced.

    If you can guarantee with or without the force of law that such activities will not occur then the issue is moot. If you cannot so guarantee, Client would be advised to continue fulfilling his commitment to some extent...

  2. #222
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    De Oppresso Liber-To Liberate The Oppressed, sounds like a moral obligation to me.

    The Ballad of The Green Berets......"Men who mean just what they say".....sounds like that moral obligation thing again.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH4-t...eature=related

  3. #223
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    Duty, however, does get closer to the truth. 'Face' doesn't bother me; spend more time in the FE and you get comfortable with all the permutations. The basic issue, really is 'obligation.' It matters to one what one construes as an obligation -- however, in this case, what matters a great deal is not how you or I consider the issue but how the rest of the world will construe things.No one has said it would be embarrassing. That's not a really great diversionary attempt...

    The issue, Counselor, is that the Client's predecessor for seven years voluntarily and publicly obligated himself and his heirs and assigns to fulfillment of a task which Client has recently affirmed. The question that arises is not the extent to which that obligation is binding or defensible before the law, nor one of potential embarrassment for failure to perform or fulfill an assumed obligation.
    Ken, I understand your take on our obligations (and I agree). A good catholic would never consider not doing his duty or even ponder divorce; however, there is always a point where it is deemed necessary- in this case, we could argue adultery on behalf of the spouse coupled with substance abuse issues. I'm just wondering at what point do we move to family court and declare "irreconciliable grievances?" What is our commitment? Moreover, how much is it going to cost us in alimony and child support?

    v/r

    Mike
    Last edited by MikeF; 09-11-2009 at 12:49 AM.

  4. #224
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default That's really what we're discussing isn't it?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    ..I'm just wondering at what point do we move to family court and declare "irreconciliable grievances?" What is our commitment? Moreover, how much is it going to cost us in alimony and child support?
    The end will come, we all know that, the issue is when. Do we wait 'til the kids are grown or just go ahead and split the blanket. Dunno. Inadequate data at my level at this time. However, having watched the US Guvmint in peace and war for a good many decades, I could cynically advise watching late 2011 - early 2012 very carefully and I will say the next most likely time, October 2010, is probably a trifle early, I think...

    Oops, forgot the Child support. I'd say about about half Israel's or Egypt's annual stipend initially tapering to 10% at ten years as a WAG.
    Last edited by Ken White; 09-11-2009 at 12:51 AM.

  5. #225
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default Yes it is...

    I found the approriate analogy...I'm not happy with it, but it is true.
    Now, we must discuss it...

    v/r

    Mike

  6. #226
    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
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    Post It probably is a good anology to work from

    How unfortunate that it had to be one that carries with it such a large amount of emotional baggage.

    First thing all parties have to do is ensure they have proper representation by those more astutute in both the legal and especially politically correct forms of communication. As we're all aware this will mean stiff financial obligations to ensure we have the best representation(not something to be handled on the cheap)

    Second it is necessary to recognize that any prenuptual agreements that were made (inlaws included) must be reconciled in such a way as to hopefully avoid future legal and or merely spitful outtbursts.

    Third and probably most importantly be sure that any agreements on alimony
    Require an accounting of some sort so one party doesn't agree then screw up and then try coming back later saying it wasn't done right the first time.

    How's that for a starter?
    Last edited by Ron Humphrey; 09-11-2009 at 06:07 AM. Reason: cant spell
    Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours

    Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur

  7. #227
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default On this 9/11 anniversary..

    working with the marraige analogy, I'd suggest we forgive and forget...

    Pray for forgiveness to those that harmed us, stay true to our own values, and stand tall... Allow our own values shine and triumph over the nothingness of al Qaeda's caliphate.

    v/r

    Mike

  8. #228
    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
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    Thumbs up Amen to that

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    working with the marraige analogy, I'd suggest we forgive and forget...

    Pray for forgiveness to those that harmed us, stay true to our own values, and stand tall... Allow our own values shine and triumph over the nothingness of al Qaeda's caliphate.

    v/r

    Mike
    That should probably always be the goal, then again it's never as easy as it sounds.
    Any man can destroy that which is around him, The rare man is he who can find beauty even in the darkest hours

    Cogitationis poenam nemo patitur

  9. #229
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeF View Post
    I found the approriate analogy...I'm not happy with it, but it is true.
    Now, we must discuss it...

    v/r

    Mike
    Now your talking, this is the biggest and a not uncommon case of Domestic Violence I have ever seen. You have all the Brothers and Sisters and Aunts and Uncles and Friends siding off and lining up and changing their minds every 15 minutes.

    So moral obligation on our part also implies a moral responsibility on their part. If they will not help in the fight then I say we have fulfilled our moral obligation and are no longer bound by it. We used to tell DV victims in order for us (the Police) to protect you requires cooperation on your part, which could sometimes be uncomfotrable...like moving to a shelter, being a witness during the trial,etc. if you don't do that there is not much we can do.

    So here is the trial separation pending a final divorce as it relates to A'stan. Give Karzid 30 days to show dramatic improvement or we will establish an Exit point and leave.....and we want come back, but if our interest are in jepordy we will run an Air Campaign to protect our interest and we are not going to protect anyones population but ours.


    What is the jury verdict

  10. #230
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default That B*tch is crazy...

    Continuing the analogy if this thing went to trial...

    I'd hire Ken and JMM as my defense team.
    Fuchs would be her attorney.
    WILF would be my hitman if sh*t hit the fan.
    MarcT and BW would be my expert professionals to describe why the b*tch was crazy...
    Tom and Stan would serve as my bodyguards.
    After Wilf's hit, Slap would arrest me.

    Enough seriousness...I had to have some fun with that one...

    v/r

    Mike
    Last edited by MikeF; 09-11-2009 at 06:46 AM.

  11. #231
    Council Member wm's Avatar
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    Default

    Ken,
    Thanks for the help.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    Moral obligation for any nation is IMO shorthand for 'a voluntarily assumed or inadvertently obtained commitment.' I dislike applying the world 'moral' to any action of nations because nations don't have morals, people have them. However, many people use moral as a construct for what nations do or should do, thus it gets to be an habitual if really incorrect form of reference.
    I suspect that nations, when viewed as the "artificial person," a term that Hobbes uses to describe a nation when he doesn't call it a Leviathan, do have moral obligations, but that's not the real point here. I was trying to suggest to Bob's World that he was, as you point out above, playing fast and loose with some terminology

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    I disagree that 'getting even' for 9/11 was stupid -- not done well, I agree -- but something needed to be done apart from the non-response or minimal response to a number of provocation emanating from the ME over a period of 22 years starting in November of 1979. all those failure were directly responsible for 9/11 so not only the then in power administration was guilty of hubris and misreading the ME /South Asia -- so were its four predecessors.
    We agree here. I was not suggesting that getting even was dumb, just our method for doing something to satisfy the need to respond to the continuing chain of provocative, anti-American actions that we can choose to say started with the occupation of the US embassy in Iran (your 1979 window), but I suspect probably goes back to some things that happpened as follow ups to a "partition" decision made in the 1947 time frame.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    You can fault the politicians for all that if you wish but I suggest that the actual planning AND operating was done by people in various colored suits, couple of varieties green, couple of blue...
    There's enough egg here for everyone.
    I faulted the nation's ostensible leadership--and that is not just the elected folks/politicians.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    I seem to recall that P. Villa's incursion developed a bit of over and flawed reaction. Do you suppose it's something in the water in Washington?
    I'm reminded of Governor LePetomane's meetings in Blazinng Saddles.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blazing Saddles
    Holy underwear! Sheriff murdered! Innocent women and children blown to bits! We have to protect our phoney baloney jobs here, gentlemen! We must do something about this immediately! Immediately! Immediately! Harrumph! Harrumph! Harrumph!
    Can I get a "harrumph" here?
    Vir prudens non contra ventum mingit
    The greatest educational dogma is also its greatest fallacy: the belief that what must be learned can necessarily be taught. — Sydney J. Harris

  12. #232
    Council Member wm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slapout9 View Post

    So here is the trial separation pending a final divorce as it relates to A'stan. Give Karzid 30 days to show dramatic improvement or we will establish an Exit point and leave.....
    What is the jury verdict
    30 days seems a little short of a time frame to expect results. Don't most "no-fault" divorce proceedings require a 1-year separation?
    Vir prudens non contra ventum mingit
    The greatest educational dogma is also its greatest fallacy: the belief that what must be learned can necessarily be taught. — Sydney J. Harris

  13. #233
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    Default 12 men, not 1200

    Quote Originally Posted by slapout9 View Post
    De Oppresso Liber-To Liberate The Oppressed, sounds like a moral obligation to me.

    The Ballad of The Green Berets......"Men who mean just what they say".....sounds like that moral obligation thing again.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH4-t...eature=related
    The whole idea is that we can send a few ODAs instead of a few Divisions to places like this where we have concerns that are important, but that for whatever reason are best managed with a light hand on the wheel.

    Trust me, we understand moral obligation. We just don't think one should wear it like a badge of honor to cover motivations that are in fact something very different....
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  14. #234
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    Default Begin with "Ends" to devise what one should do next.

    When I wrote my War College paper several years ago, I looked at things like COG theory and the GWOT, and Ends-Ways-Means for the same. (For those suffering from insomnia, well worth the read)


    But my assessment then, and nothing since has convinced me to either retreat or advance from this position, is that exactly 8 years ago today the President of the United States received two clear mandates from the American populace to go to war, and that those two mandates were therefore our "Strategic Ends" for the same:

    1. To find the murdering sons of dogs who had attacked us, and to punish them for their actions. (Revenge)

    2. To make us feel as safe as we had felt on September 10th.

    The key aspect of both of these ends is that they are both intangible, subjective, and rooted in emotion. One is avenged when they feel avenged. Usually this takes a mix of action, justice, and time. One is never truly secure or safe either, but you know when you feel safe. America felt safe on 9/10, but we clearly weren't. It is the feeling that is important.

    So, based on this I argued then that the GWOT was really over, that we had met the ends and that what we were engaged in now was really something very different and we needed to either identify it as such, or begin standing it down.

    So, I ask this august group, those who feel morally compelled to hold this piece of dirt at all costs when no enemy action fixes us to it, nor does any critical interest become exposed to enemy action if we withdraw to better ground, which, exactly, of these two ends do you think we can either achieve or enhance by this plan??

    America writ large feels avenged, and by my eye-ball assessment, feels safe as well. But these are things are fleeting, requiring constant vigilence and effort.

    I don't think much about tactics these days, and focus on the big picture. And my big picture assessment is that while there are plenty of tactical victories to be had here; that the pursuit of them will weaken, rather than strengthen, our strategic posture.

    Physical Terrain in such warfare means nothing to the enemy, be it hill 875 outside Dak To; or an entire country such as Afghanistan. We need to focus on the populace. Whatever course is most likely to make the Afghan populace neutral to America, or perhaps even somewhat pro-America is what we should seek. Occupation rarely achieves that end.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  15. #235
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    Physical Terrain in such warfare means nothing to the enemy, be it hill 875 outside Dak To; or an entire country such as Afghanistan. We need to focus on the populace. Whatever course is most likely to make the Afghan populace neutral to America, or perhaps even somewhat pro-America is what we should seek. Occupation rarely achieves that end.
    Spot On. I used to wonder why Sunnis in Iraq would stare at us with disgust while we attempted to build schools. Then, I found out. They felt impotent. They used to build the schools for their children. Now, their children watched as their fathers were unemployed and powerless. David Wood addresses a similar issues here, and David Kilcullen speaks volumes about it in The Accidental Guerrilla. That's one of the paradoxes of Pop-centric COIN as practiced by GPF forces. We often hurt more than we help, and, sometimes, we don't even know it.



    v/r

    Mike

  16. #236
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Default Maybe It's Time For Some SBW

    album: Band of the Hand Soundtrack

    lyrics

    It's Hell Time Man

    Down these streets the fools rule
    There's no freedom or self respect,
    A knife's point or a trip to the joint
    Is about all you can expect.

    They kill people here who stand up for their rights, The system's just too damned corrupt
    It's always the same, the name of the game
    Is who do you know higher up well.

    It's Hell Time Man

    The blacks and the whites,
    The idiotic, the exotic,
    Wealth is a filthy rag
    So erotic so unpatriotic
    So wrapped up in the American flag.

    Witchcraft scum exploiting the dumb,
    Turning children into punks and slaves
    Whose heroes and healers are rich drug dealers Who should be put in their graves.

    It's Hell Time Man

    Listen to me Mr. Pussyman
    This might be your last night in a bed so soft. We're not pimps on the make, politicians on the take, You can't pay us off.

    We're gonna blow up your home of Voodoo
    And watch it burn without any regret
    We got the power we're the new government,
    You just don't know it yet.

    It's Hell Time Man

    For all of my brothers from Vietnam
    And my uncles from World War II,
    I'd like to say that it's countdown time now
    And we're gonna do what the law should do.

    And for you pretty baby,
    I know you've seen it all.
    I know your story is too painful to share.
    One day though you'll be talking in your sleep.And when you do, I wanna be there yeaahhh.

    It's Hell Time Man
    It's Hell Time Man
    Band of The Hand

    Sorry forgot the music. Bob Dylan-Band of The Hand-(It's Hell Time Man) from the Movie "Band of The Hand" 1986 I think?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JLoO...om=PL&index=42
    Last edited by slapout9; 09-11-2009 at 04:59 PM. Reason: add the music

  17. #237
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    Default Hi Michael,

    You injected more humor in your post #230 than you could ever know. I've never been counsel of record in a divorce ! I guess I'd rely on Ken for guidance.

    OTOH, when Wilf and you are indicted for conspiracy and murder one, I would feel comfortable handling that case - even though it would be prosecuted by one Robert Jones, with Slap as the witness in chief. See you on cross, Slap.

    Thirty days does seem a bit quick, until you remember that Slap is used to judicial continuences, where 30 days is followed by another 30 days, etc. I've a complicated case (my last piece of litigation ?[*]) which was settled on the record a year ago - which is still waiting for the exact terms of the judgment to be finalized.

    I actually have some serious comments re: both Ken and BW, but thought I'd get this gem out of the way.

    -------------------
    [*] A problem I've had over the last 10 years is the need to refer out litigation. Have another lawyer coming in (starting next week) who will be handling general litigation and municipal law as his focus. His military service was in a branch of MI and spent about 20 years in municipal operations as an engineer before going to law school. Tried to get Ken, but he couldn't stand the winters.

  18. #238
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Default

    Whatever course is most likely to make the Afghan populace neutral to America, or perhaps even somewhat pro-America is what we should seek. Occupation rarely achieves that end.
    Occupation rarely brings popularity, but the other strategy, that of withdrawal followed by a period of "repetitive raiding" as Kilcullen calls it from the sky and SOF seems unlikely to do so either.

    The results of such a Krulak-like campaign can be seen in the current situation in the FATA. Abandonment of ground (by the Pakistani Army, the FC, and government) combined with repetitive raiding (by Predators and Pak Air Force) has created enormous hatred of the U.S. even in the parts of Pakistan that aren't targeted. I can't imagine we're much more popular in the FATA itself.

    Moreover, after eight years of such a strategy, the Pakistani Taliban has mestasized from nowhere in 2001 to the most serious threat to the Pakistani state in 2009.

    As for the threat to the U.S., I will only recall that most of the serious terror plots in the West, both successful and unsuccessful, of the past decade can be laid at the door of AQ planners and trainers in the NWFP and FATA. Noticeably not from Afghanistan, where such high-level people cannot operate safely.

  19. #239
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default Not a zero-sum game...

    Quote Originally Posted by tequila View Post
    Occupation rarely brings popularity, but the other strategy, that of withdrawal followed by a period of "repetitive raiding" as Kilcullen calls it from the sky and SOF seems unlikely to do so either.
    This debate on strategy in Afghanistan is NOT an either/or of Occupy with Pop-Centric COIN versus simply leaving and only conducting limited CT.

    What BW is describing (I think), is a softer, lighter footprint and indirect approach. Instead of masses of foreign soldiers conducting COIN and SFA, we go back to the traditional SF role of FID as seen in the Phillipines and Colombia where civilian and military advisors quietly advise the HN government. It takes a lot longer to do, but it is more effective. Simultaneously, we allow the other SOF elements to stalk the enemy at night.

    v/r

    Mike

  20. #240
    Council Member MikeF's Avatar
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    Default Hi Mike

    Glad I could offer some humor to this otherwise serious debate. Eventually, I'm going to do a dissertation on this topic, game theory, and international relations using marraige, divorce, and arbitration.

    BW is finishing up his plan which is pretty good from what I understand. Now, I'm ready for some SBW.

    Slap- since you're taking a systems-based approach, I would suggest that you brush up on Mintzberg (the godfather of systems) and check out Dr. Jon Arquilla's work on the enemy as a social network- a more organic, open system. Besides that, you caught my attention with the Band of the Hand or paragraph one alpha- enemy situation.

    Standing by for class.

    v/r

    Mike

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