Kaplan- The Revenge of Geography

[Valin]

25 or so years from now, over glasses of Kentuck bourbon - to consider this:



we will see how all of our WAGs have turned out. And eventually, you and I will get together - unless we end up at different destinations.

The point is - the serious point - is what you have said more than once - impact of today's decisions cannot be measured with any accuracy tomorrow, a year from now, or even a decade. So, the third T in METT-TC also comes into play - and societies (especially those in more "primitive" countries) often change slowly, if at all, over decades.

Something I read a couple of years ago that has always stuck with me..."History's not an instant thing, it takes time."


To many people view this war like it was a TV show where in an hour (commercials included) the calvary rides to the rescue and the hero rides off into the sunset. We know it's not that way, when President Bush talked about a generational war, (IMO) he wasn't just blowing smoke.
How it will turn out? I seemed to have misplaced my crystal ball.

(aside)
During the Cold War (particularly towards the end) people were pointing to "Radical" Islam, the Salfists (whatever) as the next great threat. Not many paid any attention to them, so my question is, What are we missing now?

/rambling

[Ken White]

During the Cold War (particularly towards the end) people were pointing to "Radical" Islam, the Salfists (whatever) as the next great threat...

We knew, long ago -- and did nothing.

Check the LINK. The Commission was initially a political thing and it got mixed reviews from such policy makers as Alexander Haig (who said it was a charade which almost certainly means it was good...) but it did come up with many things -- including hijacked airplanes as weapons. It actually predicted much that was to occur and even provide ideas and items for prevention and remediation. Unfortunately, it was ignored due to domestic political concerns. Thus, you're correct, not many paid attention...

...Not many paid any attention to them, so my question is, What are we missing now?

I suppose you've seen this: LINK. It does a pretty good job, I think. Little light on South and Central America and on Trans National Gangs but overall, not bad.