Studies on radicalization & comments

[Ken White]

Jihad existed long before the West had colonies, and the root cause was their religion, which is political... It is tricky business for us to determine what is legitimate and what isn’t.

...If we didn’t respond, they would have hit us again...There is a certain beauty to punitive military operations, and that IMO is what we should have done in Afghanistan, go in hard and leave. If they come back we go back. You may find that amusing, but is it more amusing than what we’re doing now?

I don't find it amusing -- it's one of the most sensible things that's been posted on this board in a while. I know the ancient Chinese (and I think Bob's World) put a lot of stock in threes. Been my observation that most persistent pests are stopped by three hard smackdowns. Hard, not light (as we have tried to do three times now; Viet Nam, Afghanistan and Iraq. hopefully we smacked ourselves hard enough to not try it again...). Gotta be hard (and that will cost less and harm fewer people in the long run) and you have to be able and prepared to deliver three...

...Are we going to withdraw from the Middle East completely after we install Islamist regimes?

Heh. This reality trash needs to cease.

It's frustrating, but I'm confident we'll still triumph in the end. Agree with Bob's World that our current strategy is still off track, but we'll eventually get right (probably out of necessity).

I agree with all that...

[omarali50]

I agree with most of what Bill Moore is saying. btw, some days i have the feeling that people are OVERESTIMATING the "insurgency". What if super taliban is not as super as everyone seems to think? What if Pakistan completely switched sides? Where will Mullah Omar and friends go? It might be easier than many people think...

[Bob's World]

Bill: Totally agree that a strong raid into Afghanistan to punish the living crap out of AQ and then leave was the way to go. Tell the Taliban stay out of this, it isn't about you, do our business and then go home. Instead we took out the Taliban, installed a new government, and then took on the role of protector....

But to clarify some key points in my root causes argument, because AQ is a symptom of the problem, not the problem itself.

1. Illegitimate governments: I am very clear that the definition is through the eyes of the populace being governed, not some external party. That when the populace of a nation (or even some autonomous region that isn't really a state in western terms) does not recognize the legitimacy of the governance over them, you have a prime, strategic, causal factor for insurgency.

2. I never said we need to attack or reform these illegitimate governments, I said that we need to stop protecting and supporting them in the suppression of their own populaces. The second prime strategic causal factor for insurgency is the lack of a trusted, certain process that a populace can employ to affect governance legally and peacefully. I don't care what that process is. I don't think we need to force western values, democracy or voting on anyone. I do think we need to hold a hard line with this entire crop of autocratic despots whose populaces are filling the ranks of AQ on the road, and insurgent movements at home to devise and implement such processes. This will either lead to new governments that those respective populaces recognize the legitimacy of, or will bestow new popular legitimacy on the existing government. It will allow the populaces of these nations to enact their OWN reforms. Hubris indeed to attempt to shape in our image.

3. Everyone jumps from "We must support despotic dictators" to "we must abandon our influence in the Middle East." Is there really no middle ground? I refuse to believe that. We live in an era of Lazy Diplomacy. We are bigger and stronger so we either demand that others do as we wish them to under threat of economic or military violence; or if they refuse, we label them "rogue" and either ostracize them or attack them. We have become selfish bullies. Do what I say or I'll take my ball and go home, or kick your ass, depending on how I feel, and if I think you can hurt me or not (i.e., have nuclear weapons). We must find a middle ground in the Middle East. In another thread they talked about having as powerful as possible military, and then using it as rarely as possible. I agree. So long as everyone knows you also possess the will to use it quickly and judiciously when necessary. We have gotten lazy and now lead with the military option.

For Ken:

4. No question major mayhem has been wrought in the name of Communism and Islam. But there is also no question that major mayhem has been wrought in the name of Democracy, Christianity, etc, etc etc. It isn't the ideology one uses to motivate their populace to action that is to be feared, it is the underlying causal factors that promote the violence itself. Colonialism is a big problem today. The residue of Western imperialism will shape conflicts for years to come. Just as the residue of Greek imperialism shaped conflicts from the Balkans to India for hundreds of years. Just as the residue of Roman imperialism shaped conflicts for hundreds of years from the Levant to Great Britain. To fear and attack the ideology of those who rise up to throw off illegitimate or oppressive control measures is to fear the wrong thing. It is to fear the loud noise of a gun going off rather than the bullet headed for your brain. It is to counter the noise rather than to address why you are being shot at in the first place.


No, I stand firm on my two points of strategic COIN:

1. First ensure that the populace recognizes the legitimacy of its governance on their terms.

2. Second, ensure that the populace has legal, peaceful, trusted and certain measures in place to effect changes of governance.



Finally, to bring this home: As I watched the inaugural of President Obama, I found it very interesting how the media went on and on about how America was electing its first Black President; I also found it interesting how fired up about this fact the African American populace was (I had thought that insurgency was resolved, but no, it requires more work and constant nurturing). But what I found the most interesting was what no one was talking about. The most powerful man in the world, the leader of the most powerful nation in the world, was handing over that mantle to another man peacefully, as a matter of course, because the people had chosen a new leader and it was time to transfer in accordance with the laws of the land and with will of the people. And no one noticed.

In America this is as natural as breathing. No one notices oxygen when it is all around you. In many lands around the world there is no such "political oxygen." There are few things more noticeable than the lack of oxygen. When we support despotic, illegitimate leaders, it is Uncle Sam's hand that is on the knob of the oxygen tank. When the populaces of those countries seek to throw of those illegitimate, despotic governments, it is only natural that they seek first to take our hand off of that knob. We don't need to take our hand off the knob (i.e., pack up and go home), we just need to turn the damn oxygen on.

[Ken White]

...But there is also no question that major mayhem has been wrought in the name of Democracy, Christianity, etc, etc etc... Colonialism is a big problem today. To fear and attack the ideology of those who rise up to throw off illegitimate or oppressive control measures is to fear the wrong thing.

True on the fact that 'democracy' and colonialism have their own failures that have left fear and resentment in many places. Yet, most people I've talked to around the world over the years acknowledged that 'our' crimes were and are slight compared to at least one of the two you cited -- and the other is rapidly gaining, even among its own devotees, an equally bad reputation. A lot of folks overseas "hate the US" but most of them also want to emigrate and come here...

While there are undoubtedly some who fear the ideology instead of what said ideologies can do, I think they're relatively few in number and are rarely in a position to affect policy. I think you're seeing 'what they can do' attacked in a not very effective way partly due to poor information and knowledge and partly to lack of some effective tools to do it another way. An example is the punitve strategic raid -- those things have been done for centureis -- but we do not do them for a variety of reasons. I believe that is large measure due to a lack of political will in the corridors of power of the US. I agree with much you say but your ideas are not going to work unless you fix that.

No, I stand firm on my two points of strategic COIN:

1. First ensure that the populace recognizes the legitimacy of its governance on their terms.

2. Second, ensure that the populace has legal, peaceful, trusted and certain measures in place to effect changes of governance.

Yes, you do indeed stand firm on those two items and have for many months -- you also have yet to tell us how to realistically implement those ideas.

Finally, to bring this home: As I watched the inaugural of President Obama...And no one noticed.

I don't think that's correct; most of the rest of the world noticed but our flaccid media doesn't report foreign news at all well -- it doesn't even report US news at all well -- so you might have missed it. As a cruiser of worldwide English language news on the internet, I saw a lot of comment on that aspect. Many wondering why their transitions were not as assured. Interestingly, there were people here who did not believe that relatively smooth transition would occur, rumors of coups and other things abounded inside the US.

When we support despotic, illegitimate leaders, it is Uncle Sam's hand that is on the knob of the oxygen tank. When the populaces of those countries seek to throw of those illegitimate, despotic governments, it is only natural that they seek first to take our hand off of that knob. We don't need to take our hand off the knob (i.e., pack up and go home), we just need to turn the damn oxygen on.

Sorry, do not agree at all. Some of those regimes are despotic; many more are just not as nice a some would like -- though the bulk of the populace is content. A lot of those 'populaces' you frequently are in fact merely segments of a populace with axes to grind and / or agendas that point in other directions. A few of those axes are reflexively anti-American simply because we're big, arrogant and clumsy. All those failings are due to our governmental system and real change means changing that system. Good luck with that...

We also need to satay away from other folks' oxygen...

You have an amazingly benign view of people for a former Prosecutor. My Daughter in Law in the Seattle area has a Sister who is a prosecutor and has been for about 20 years. Same region of the country, same basic demographics -- and she's more cynical about people than I am...

We can agree philosophically but practically, probably not. People are as a collective are prone to be unduly selfish which leads them to follow demagogues and do strange and illegal things (including being rebels without a cause...). People will tolerate poor governance and the USA is a major example of that (proof is in your daily news, just check the Early Bird). You tend to gloss over that little failing...

The world is not a nice place and some of your suggestions are unlikely to be implemented because the ebb and flow of international relations mitigates against it. All those other nations have a say in what happens and many of them do not wish us well and they will look for any chink to do some minor or major harm as they believe they can succeed. This:

we label them "rogue" and either ostracize them or attack them. We have become selfish bullies. Do what I say or I'll take my ball and go home, or kick your ass, depending on how I feel, and if I think you can hurt me or not (i.e., have nuclear weapons).

is one result of that. US desires are not the sole reason we appear to do what you say, other nations including some 'friends' nudge and fiddle to take us down a peg, sometimes successfully, sometimes not. We respond to many things the way we do primarily due to having a dysfunctional (by design) government.

Lastly, you have never addressed how you intend to get the US political class and system to operate as you desire; how you're going to get around that designed, Constitutional, illogical and flawed functionality -- even though I have repeatedly asked you to do so. You can blow me off and not answer but to then keep saying the same things over and over without addressing the issues raised is not IMO helpful to your position. YMMV but I think changing the US approach is a far bigger impediment to Bob's World than the other two factors combined.

[Bob's World]

Better we strive hard to change ourselves, than to demand that everyone else change to suit our out of date expectations.

OK, a few "Hows"

1. Declare and end to the war on terrorism. Running around the world declaring that we are a nation at war makes us sound like Chicken Little.

2. Officially announce that the State Department is once again lead (now that the war is over) for foreign policy and direct two things of them:
a. Change your name from State Department to something along the lines of "Foreign Office", that better recognizes that not every organization we must work with is a "State."
b. Conduct a top down review of all foreign policies and relationships shaped over the course of the Cold War and following period; and assess for relevance. Come back in 8 weeks with initial misison analysis for how to conduct foreign polciy in the current globalized world, highlighting any place where a "Cold Warism" was either retained or rejected and explain why.
(1) Specifically address an alternative position on Taiwan and Iran that are more relevant to the modern security concerns of our nation and that are apt to allow the devopment of healthier relationships with two of the most important nations (China and Iran) in the emerging world order.
(2) Also specficially address any nation considered an "Ally" or receiveing U.S foreign aid that is also listed as a major human rights violater and is possessed of a populace that is a major provider of AQ foreign fighters / terrorists. Include a plan that cuts aid to each of those countries by 50% per year until such time as they open negotiations with their own populaces to identify and address concerns; as well as to create mechanisms, logical and acceptable to them, to provide a reasonable and certain procedure for the populace to affect changes of governance short of insurgency.

3. I would immediately put all surge of forces to Afghanistan on hold and publically congratulate Mr. Karzai on his announcements about holding a Loya Jirga to address the legitimacy issues that his govenrment has; and then privately tell him we are packing up and gone by the end of the year unless he has a true, wide open, Loya Jirga with all Afghan stake holders appropriately represented. Then publicly offer our assurances of safetey of those who attend, and commit to working with whatever government emerges from this uniquely Afghan vehichle of government legitmacy.


Oh, and as to this:

"A lot of those 'populaces' you frequently are in fact merely segments of a populace with axes to grind and / or agendas that point in other directions. A few of those axes are reflexively anti-American (British) simply because we're big, arrogant and clumsy. All those failings are due to our governmental system and real change means changing that system. "

That could be a direct lift from the transcripts of British Parliment back in 1775...I suspect that is where you either first heard or used the line!

[Ken White]

-- those aren't 'hows,' they're really 'whats.' My question was HOW you get the US government and specifically, the Congress, to do those what thingys you have often suggested...

Better we strive hard to change ourselves, than to demand that everyone else change to suit our out of date expectations.

Well said and I agree but that's pie in the sky...

1. Declare and end to the war on terrorism.

That's been done. In theory anyway.

...Running around the world declaring that we are a nation at war makes us sound like Chicken Little.

I totally agree, a lot of folks in Congress and the country will or do also agree -- unfortunately, there are probably more that do or will not for various reasons including turf protection -- what do you propose to do about them? I'm sure you recall that hope is not a plan...

I agree with your other numbered items but am unsure how you propose to get there and frankly, quite strongly doubt that it is possible.

Oh, and as to this:

That could be a direct lift from the transcripts of British Parliment back in 1775...I suspect that is where you either first heard or used the line!

Actually I first heard it on the border of Nubia even longer ago. It was true then, true in Gaul in 300 BC, true in 1775 AD and is still true today. Passing it off does not make it one bit less true; ignoring that reality by a strategic thinker is umm, surprising...

And you still have not proffered one single idea for HOW you plan to make that change occur...

Backwards Observer. Simply stop looking at your fourth point of contact, look ahead and you too can and will become cynical. It's absoutely painless -- and it keeps you alive.

You can say I'm old because I "unnerstan" that I am. Generally when I look about today, I'm pretty thankful that I am..

[Backwards Observer]

Backwards Observer. Simply stop looking at your fourth point of contact, look ahead and you too can and will become cynical. It's absoutely painless -- and it keeps you alive.

I try to face up and be a good cynic, but this world is so unusually interesting that I reckon it's nigh on a miracle that there are any good folks at all. Maybe it's some Isaiah 11:6 thing I'm trying to get over.

Isaiah 11:6 (King James Version)

6The wolf also shall dwell with the lamb, and the leopard shall lie down with the kid; and the calf and the young lion and the fatling together; and a little child shall lead them.

I guess in this world the little child is probably holding an rpg...whoa, I think I'm starting to see the light!

[Backwards Observer]

-- and she's more cynical about people than I am...

Gee willikers, Mr. White, Old Soldiers like yourself are one of the reasons I'm not cynical! Although I'm not sayin' you're old, y'unnerstan'...