The Illusion of Control

[MikeF]

Below is my first draft on explaining the theory that I'm working on. I've solved it mathematically, but I'm having trouble articulating my findings....Attached is a super-cool photo of Point Lobos that speaks more than I could ever type. If you have a moment, please contribute....

v/r

Mike Few


The Illusion of Control:
Contracts, Dreams, and Democracy

Major Michael Few

Take this kiss upon the brow!
And, in parting from you now,
Thus much let me avow-
You are not wrong, who deem
That my days have been a dream;
Yet if hope has flown away
In a night, or in a day,
In a vision, or in none,
Is it therefore the less gone?
All that we see or seem
Is but a dream within a dream.

- Edgar Allen Poe, A Dream within a Dream



Military indoctrination and training teaches and demands leaders on every level take ownership of their mission and men. The fallacy in this dogma results in an illusion of control, and it is not simply constrained to the military. Commanders assume they own their men and battlespace (Ken White), policymakers assume that one can control the hearts and minds of another nation, state, tribe, or clan, some husbands and wives feel they can 'fix' or 'train' their spouses, and some family members strive to assist in the recovery of one suffering from substance abuse. Metaphorically speaking, it is but a dream within a dream. Instead, EVERYTHING in life is but a contract. We control nothing except ourselves.

The human condition starting with one's internal contract expanding to friendships, marriage, business and social relationships, citizenship, and it ebbs and flows in peace, love, and war. It just is. The contract, vow, or commitment constantly adjust as limitations, contraints, grievances, and life experiences both real and imagined interdict. In the end, it is but a negotiation, a perpetual dance- this human condition.

The confusion, collision, complexity, hostility, dynamics, and competition are expressed in nature as a wave crashes into the shore.

This paper will explain the relationships intermixed in the human condition. If correct, this explanation may allow us to transcend from philosophy to better policy as we continue to ride the wave.

[MikeF]

Hammarabi sought
to codify constructs
became known as law
across the land.
Limitations on misuse
Still, gluttony pursues
Karl Marx right
in many ways
as it pertains
to AIG
Love, Hope, and faith
never forlorn
We still patrol
in regulation
despite Keynesian worship
the quiet professional
big stick, soft walk
once again
Contracts still
to be negoitiated
understanding
any man-made construct
bound to be flawed.

Military to implement
whatever men dream
Pray for POTUS
wisdom, righteousness and such

In understanding
we cannot hope to control
others hearts and minds.

Accidental guerillas
grievances real or perceived
drones scorched the earth
in cowardice perceived

either occupy, assist
FID or forlorn
Neither choice broached.

In arguments over merit
and tabs, ribbons, and medals
disagreements over language
as terrain to geology
to human terrain to ethonography

the human condition and dimension persist
in METT-TC.

[goesh]

The history pages show there to be any number of mystic warriors and commanders, those who took theory and tactics beyond 3 dimensional thought. I call it jumping dimensions, thinking out of the box. The last known commander from the West, IMO, who fits this bill was Patton. Had he failed as a commander and given the specific nature of some of his beliefs, he would have been labeled a Section 8 crackpot and drummed into oblivion. In some arcane quarters, General P. is regarded as a mystic - what manner of man would put anthropologists in a combat zone - but the rank and file are pretty much content to leave such matters in the hands of theologians and conventional, traditional religious explanations for our contracts with the unknown. From an anonymous Sufi poet:

All That Moves

You are the wind
that turns me into a rock
unmovable
if you bring fire
I turn to water
stop your motion
and I will turn into earth
and flowers will grow

[MikeF]

Opinions are free...a dime a dozen....I simply see everything akin to nature....

The Squirrel

Nurture, nourish back to nature we must go
Foregoing pursuit of pillage
Foregoing devious throws
Focus on the family and the village

Always alone, never alone, I simply could not see
Just as the squirrel gathers nuts from the tree
Spreading the seeds, new trees spring
The circle of life continues again

But he is only a squirrel, what purpose to serve?

[jmm99]

A good start ...

from MikeF
Instead, EVERYTHING in life is but a contract. We control nothing except ourselves.

Since Hammarabi's name is mentioned in vain, I have to get a little legal. So, lots of things in life are "contracts"; but lots of things are not. They go by the names of such as "torts", "criminal acts" - to take into account bad guys who are not very agreeable.

Not sure about control - maybe it should be "we control nothing". Period. Better to learn how to ride the wave - and be concerned not how to control it. My lesson learned from the beautiful photo.

Just some thoughts for you two poets.

PS: The purpose of being a squirrel, of course.

[MikeF]

A good start ...



Since Hammarabi's name is mentioned in vain, I have to get a little legal. So, lots of things in life are "contracts"; but lots of things are not. They go by the names of such as "torts", "criminal acts" - to take into account bad guys who are not very agreeable.

Not sure about control - maybe it should be "we control nothing". Period. Better to learn how to ride the wave - and be concerned not how to control it. My lesson learned from the beautiful photo.

Just some thoughts for you two poets.

PS: The purpose of being a squirrel, of course.

thanks jmm...i'm just sorting through thoughts at this point...Hopefully, the thoughts will merge lest someone contradicts

I believe that I'm on to something...Running towards not away that is....

[slapout9]

Hmmmm so riddle me this. How did Hitler recover his country after the ruinous inflation created by the privately owned and run banking system? As far as control is there something to learn from this? Can such an evil person provide good insight into how to run an economy and honest banking system?

[MikeF]

Hmmmm so riddle me this. How did Hitler recover his country after the ruinous inflation created by the privately owned and run banking system? As far as control is there something to learn from this? Can such an evil person provide good insight into how to run an economy and honest banking system?

Good points slap...

Emotions and logic intertwined...Fear overcame greed and Adam Smith rolled in his grave.

Plus, german language is construed in such a manner that the world evolves and reacts not around them but to them...

It's how they think in a victim role...I do not pretend to understand that...maybe Marc can explain....

v/r

mike

[MikeF]

Since Hammarabi's name is mentioned in vain, I have to get a little legal. So, lots of things in life are "contracts"; but lots of things are not. They go by the names of such as "torts", "criminal acts" - to take into account bad guys who are not very agreeable.

Not sure about control - maybe it should be "we control nothing". Period. Better to learn how to ride the wave - and be concerned not how to control it.

The trial analogy is spot on. I simply have not had time to address your original issue. Torts and "criminal acts" are merely breeches in the contracts- similar to divorce and such....

Thank you for your input JMM. As I said initially, I'm sorting through thoughts to put together collectively.

v/r

mike

[jmm99]

from MikeF
Torts and "criminal acts" are merely breeches in the contracts- similar to divorce and such....

you might consider this.

With divorce, you can find an actual contract between two people - in some countries (e.g., France - or in US pre-nups), a formal written contract; but, in any event, the exchange of vows and also the many understandings that a couple have about their future life together. But, in a no fault divorce jurisdiction, for example, breach of contract is irrelevant to the divorce itself (a pre-nup is relevant to the property settlement). Looking at the larger picture, society (either through customs or explicit laws) develops certain rules for formation and dissolution of marriages.

In the case of torts and criminal acts, the presence of a contract between the perpetrator and the victim is strictly accidental. Of course, one might speak of such things as the "Social Contract" or the "Contract Between Generations", but those are simply metaphors for what a group of people decides it wants to do. Again, society develops certain rules and the penalties for breaking them.

To look at most (much less all) legal rules and situations as "contracts", would in fact violate your power point #6:

6. You cannot wire-diagram 25 million people.

[MikeF]

for your input.

JMM- the lawyer analogy was much better than the emergency room surgeon analogy used in FM 3-24 COIN.

Ken- you're correct. At least we know have a manual on the tactics of COIN. My fear is simply that young junior leaders will take it as the Gospel. We have not yet learn to distinguish between COIN and occupation.

As time allows, I will merge all of these thoughts into a paper. I appreciate the help.

I think points 6 and 8 are off a bit. As I learned today by some wicked smart mathematicians, apparently you can wire-diagram 25 million people. I'm just curious as to the feasibility and cost of it. AND, the interdiction statement came from a discussion that I was having on the possibility of using nukes in the FATA area in Pakistan as a means to end this conflict- just a discussion no oplan.

Thanks again.

And remember, sometimes you have to give up control to regain control

Mike

[William F. Owen]

Military indoctrination and training teaches and demands leaders on every level take ownership of their mission and men. The fallacy in this dogma results in an illusion of control, and it is not simply constrained to the military. Commanders assume they own their men and battlespace (Ken White), policymakers assume that one can control the hearts and minds of another nation, state, tribe, or clan, some husbands and wives feel they can 'fix' or 'train' their spouses, and some family members strive to assist in the recovery of one suffering from substance abuse. Metaphorically speaking, it is but a dream within a dream. Instead, EVERYTHING in life is but a contract. We control nothing except ourselves.

I can only quote a good friend of mine who I met at the Infantry School at Brecon, where he was the Senior Division Sgt Major, who says

"Work with the chaos, not against it."

This is, to my mind exactly correct. Most concepts of C2 look to impose order on the chaos, where as the ones that actually work, function within the chaos because they are not dependant on the precision, and procedures that operational conditions will make impossible.

[goesh]

We contract with the unknown and call it faith or hope all the while wanting some control over our destiny.

[MikeF]

We contract with the unknown and call it faith or hope all the while wanting some control over our destiny.

"It is not the facts but the relation of things that results in the universal harmony." Robert Persig

This ties in with my current thoughts...

As a young cadet, tank platoon leader in Baghdad, staff officer with CJSOTF-AP, and recon commany commander in Diyala, I would have applauded and absorbed FM 3-24.2 Tactics in COIN.

As a young major, I am frustrated. Our current writing is at least 3 years behind the curve in our tactics, doctrine and strategy. Particularly when you consider the current dillemas in Iraq, Af-Pak, India, and Africa. This observation is not to take away from the boys working hard on doctrine. I'm just trying to state fact as I observe it. They should be applauded for their efforts (it should have been written years ago).

When I was in the breach, I was no better than anyone else. Tonight, I vent.

1. Reconnaissance is everything. Recon is hand-waved in the FM. The enemy has the information advantage- he can see you, but you cannot see him. Period. To overcome this, one must recon. That means sneaking in at night under the cover of darkness and watching- no technology, no ISR, nothing- just eyes and ears. During the day, you talk to the people. What is most important is what is left unsaid.

2. There is no Human Terrain. There are people.

3. There is no AOR. There is no control. One is merely riding a wave. If you are really good, then you may influence. If not, then you simply get in the way.

4. When you get frustrated, go back to recon- own the night. You will be suprised at what happens when people don't think you're around.

5. We must learn to talk and coordinate with PRTs, NGOs, social entrepeneurs, and relief groups.

6. You cannot wire-diagram 25 million people.

7. Timing is everything. There is a time to kill and a time to heal.

8. Interdiction can only occur after an insurgency enters Mao's Phase III.

More to follow as I collect my thoughts...If I'm off a bit, please feel free to to let me know.

v/r

Mike

[jmm99]

your 8 power points from a military standpoint. If I fooled around with, and changed, some terminology, they generally would apply to trial work.

One metaphor ...

3. There is no AOR. There is no control. One is merely riding a wave. If you are really good, then you may influence. If not, then you simply get in the way.

I can discuss - again with reference to its context in my little world.

In a litigated case (for simplicity, we'll have two clients and two lawyers, a judge and a jury panel), you have a number of key factors:

1. Facts (witnesses & exhibits)

2. Law

3. Judge

4. Jury

5. Clients

6. Lawyers

Interestingly enough, all of these factors are objectively fixed - at least within the context of the trial. Some may be subjectively unknown or uncertain (e.g., the perceptions of the jury and judge). Some may conflict (the clients and lawyers certainly do - otherwise there would be no trial).

Those factors make up my wave - and one I have to ride (unless I reject the case).

Does the skill of the lawyer make any difference ? Back in the day, the American Jury (1966) was studied by every trial lawyer with any brains. That was a large project with many sub-branches. One experiment was to match average lawyers and top-notch trial specialists.

The lawyers were given a set of facts (including witnesses, exhibits), a given set of laws (the jury instructions), the judge (unknown to the lawyers), and the jury (also unknown to the lawyers). They then made closing arguments to the jury. The top-notch pros won only about 5% more of the same cases than the average lawyers.

This result is somewhat along the lines of your:

If you are really good, then you may influence. If not, then you simply get in the way.

and should have influenced JMM to do some other things in life - since what real difference would JMM make. Know many lawyers who took that course.

But, that wasn't me. So, what was missing in the experiment ? The missing element is the lawyer's skill in shaping the case - which might be considered by some to be controlling the case. Actually, it's not that; but it is gaining as complete knowledge as you can of the factors that make up the wave you will ride into that courtroom.

In short, learn all the facts that are favorable, unfavorable and that can be developed. Same for the law. Learn everything you can about the opposing client and lawyer, the judge and jury array (the 50-100 folks from whom the 6- or 12-person jury will be selected). Also, the same for your client and yourself (critique your successes more than your defeats - errors in the latter will be obvious). In short, explore the wave horizontally and vertically - and from all angles. And, expect to spend by orders of magnitude more time in preparation vs time spent in the courtroom.

By the time you've done all that, the AO (in your jargon) is well-defined to you - not by artificial lines drawn by theory, but by knowledge of the actual environment in which you have to perform. The paradox is that while you have no control of the wave, you have a very good idea of which way it will break. When during the trial the wave began breaking in that direction, I felt in control - knowledge is king.

So, the result was that, in 20 years of trial work, I lost very few cases. But, more important, to some of my clients, I was able to settle cases on favorable terms to my clients where I knew things unfavorable to my cases, but where the other lawyers failed to discover those same things. My usual pleasant and charming personality vis a vis opposing lawyers may also have been a factor.

Too long by half - maybe useful, maybe not.

[Surferbeetle]

Some selective quoting...

Actually, it's not that; but it is gaining as complete knowledge as you can of the factors that make up the wave you will ride into that courtroom.

By the time you've done all that, the AO (in your jargon) is well-defined to you - not by artificial lines drawn by theory, but by knowledge of the actual environment in which you have to perform. The paradox is that while you have no control of the wave, you have a very good idea of which way it will break. When during the trial the wave began breaking in that direction, I felt in control - knowledge is king.

My usual pleasant and charming personality vis a vis opposing lawyers may also have been a factor.

Too long by half - maybe useful, maybe not.

JMM,

Interesting, useful, and there are many similarities to methods used at other surfing spots in the big ocean of life...

Best,

Steve

[Ken White]

Still, better late and too long by far than never or too short. Even if does appear to contradict (or significantly recast) some stuff from FM 3-24 thereby to slightly confuse the Troops -- a Building 4 specialty...

This ties in with my current thoughts...

Which mostly I share or have shared...

Agree with seven of your Points. This one, too

8. Interdiction can only occur after an insurgency enters Mao's Phase III.

but I think -- this is my Clinton act -- the definition of interdiction can vary and thus, I'm reluctant to agree that the Point will apply in all cases. METT-TC and all that, to be tedious. Heh. Come to think of it, I'm probably still alive 'cause I'm tedious...

[MikeF]

I can only quote a good friend of mine who I met at the Infantry School at Brecon, where he was the Senior Division Sgt Major, who says

"Work with the chaos, not against it."

This is, to my mind exactly correct. Most concepts of C2 look to impose order on the chaos, where as the ones that actually work, function within the chaos because they are not dependant on the precision, and procedures that operational conditions will make impossible.

The Monterey Aquarium has an amazing exhibit demonstrating the 3 tiers of life sustained inside a wave.

1. Top layer- most hostile. Plants and sea creatures simply rock to and fro within the cycle of the wave.

2. Middle layer- adaptation and specialization. Plants/sea creatures constantly adapt to the ever changing conditions.

3. Bottom layer- stability. mostly unaffected by the chaos.

I suppose that's the Darwin thing. Funny, most never look below the surface to see what's going on. Some only see a wave. That's Samuel Coyne's meta-game. For COIN, that's how we determine why some Shias side with al Qaeda and some non-religious women blow themselves up.

v/r

Mike

[marct]

Plus, german language is construed in such a manner that the world evolves and reacts not around them but to them...
It's how they think in a victim role...I do not pretend to understand that...maybe Marc can explain....

Definitely are marct question

Well, I can "explain" it, but I doubt that explanation would be the "truth" .

For a start, "Germany" (more properly the Germanies) has had the snot kicked out of it for the last 1200 years or so (and the Russians thought they had it bad !). They were also ruled by the sorriest lot of idiots for most of that time - people who made Attila look like a bunnies and light nice guy. At the same time, they did have a few rulers who could find themselves without 20 servants to point the way... Frederick Barbarossa comes to mind.

If you look at Germany mythography, the image of the strong man - heroic Leader (capital L on purpose) - is very apparent, and Hitler certainly played on this mythography quite heavily. By contrast, if you look at US mythography, the "leader" motif is played out in a character who is "self made" or, if from one of the elites, has at least got his "hands dirty doing real work" (think JFK or Senator McCain on that one).

Back to Hitler for a moment....

If you read Mein Kamp, especially Book 1, Chapter 11, Hitler was drawing on a conspiracy theory explanation for why the German people had been so downtrodden. He also gave his followers a well understood scapegoat, one they were very familiar with, and wrapped that conspiracy theory in a mantel of pseudo-scientific BS (I'm not going to go into the origins of it ) that gave it a cachet of "validity" to go along with its already fitting into the cultural matrix (especially in Bavaria).

In many ways, Hitler's propaganda campaign is quite related to the takfiri junk being spewed by AQI. They are both revitalization movements; they both have an identified enemy, and they both hearken back to a "Golden Age".

[Ken White]

"...they both have an identified enemy, and they both hearken back to a "Golden Age"."

As do I...

and you say that as if there were something wrong...