Mathematics of War

[Surferbeetle]

Mathematical modeling and simulation (war gaming) allows anybody who is willing to spend the time, effort, or resources to cost effectively examine various scenarios. From this examination one can develop probable costs, schedules, and benchmarks associated with a particular endeavor and chose the one most likely to result in success. As with any methodology, advice derived from mathematical modeling and simulation does not give a leader a magic pass to ignore common sense nor is it to be feared as voodoo magic whose use will consign our souls to the lowest circles of hell.

America as a whole understands the importance of war-gaming at a very deep level; note our world-renowned college educational system and until recently, our possession of the worlds strongest financial system. Our college system consistently explores the concepts of mathematical modeling and simulation in associate through graduate educational programs in business, engineering, finance, and manufacturing – all disciplines that are crucial to a nations ability to survive and thrive. When the immediate dust of the current financial debacle settles, I expect that we will still have the strongest financial system...however we have permanently damaged ourselves and it will take time and effort to recover.

The Economists 2009 Pocket World in Figures ranks economies by GDP in USD:
1. America 13,164 billion
2. Japan 4,368 billion
3. Germany 2,897
4. China 2,645 billion
5. United Kingdom 2,377 billion

In the US military the Air Force and Navy have taken a page from the successes of the civilian world (and of course vice versa) and worked to incorporate the use of mathematical modeling and simulation into their daily operations. We in much of the US Army still prefer to war game things in the physical world: our Combat Training Centers are heavily resourced examples of this preference. We in the Army are slowly, when compared to my civilian experiences, moving in the direction of incorporating mathematical modeling and simulation into our TTP’s. This journey will take time, have setbacks, and generally be a PITA however when balanced against the adapt or die imperative it’s an easy choice to make.

@ Mike F. - Thanks for starting the discussion and providing the Ted link.