In the military world, we call this METT-TC. If you look at a state as a homeostatic system, then you may be able forecast how that system will change when you introduce "new" energy or external forces into it.
Wilf- this understanding is intuitive to you, Ken, etc, but it is not intuitive to most. Science can provide another lens to help explain it.
For example, Iraq circa 2002 was stable in Iraqi terms. They had a nice dictator, and things worked. There were no suicide bombers (i think). The radical Islamist plotting to ovethrow the government in places like Turki Village were marginalized, etc.
We decided that we should overthrow the natural order of thngs. We ASSUMED that after we took over, we coulld hold elections, and little americans would emerge from the ashes. We assumed that we could undertake such a venture with minimal force and cost. We were wrong. Our planning was based off ideology, not reason and historical fact.
I think we can do better in the future, but we have to apply the physical sciences along with the social sciences.
Gurley may be an opportunist, but I'm developing theories along similar lines that may help us to better plan and prosecute future interventions.
Larry's analogy to the displacement of energy has merit if you apply it to societies. Not sure about the OODA loop thing though.
v/r
Mike
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