Mathematics of War

[William F. Owen]

Now that is as clear as proverbial mud. Perhaps some systems wonk may want to try and use it as it is confusing enough to sound intelligent.

Tom

Steady on Tom! We are agreeing so much recently that you are freaking me out !

[William F. Owen]

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Sean Gourley on the mathematics of war

I'm not sure if this is a badly timed April Fool or if we are supposed to take this seriously at all.

Seriously? What has the data he gathered go to do with the output he is showing and also how is this output insightful, useful or relevant?

How does it describe the structure of the insurgency? He states it does but I don't see the proof.

I am extremely interested in an explanation.

[MikeF]

I'm not sure if this is a badly timed April Fool or if we are supposed to take this seriously at all.

Seriously? What has the data he gathered go to do with the output he is showing and also how is this output insightful, useful or relevant?

How does it describe the structure of the insurgency? He states it does but I don't see the proof.

I am extremely interested in an explanation.

I posted it b/c I want to see what others felt about it. Gurley doesn't suggest any conclusions b/c he cannot. He is a physicist, not a soldier, but he did find a trend. Moreover, he's getting people across both the academic and military worlds upset, but he's getting them to think.

I think that's a good thing- too much of our past policy was based off idealogy not reason and history. He hasn't proving anything, but he's started a discussion.

He may not have found anything, but I don't think that he should be dismissed as irrelevant. The next step is to gather more data and test it. Using econometrics(statistics on crack), one can determine if his equation is useful or simply luck.

And he has a cool accent.

I'm on my Emerson kick right now. We'll see where it leads. Here's what he says,

All science has one aim, namely, to find a theory of nature. We have theories of races and of functions, but scarcely yet a remote approach to an idea of creation. We are now so far from the road to truth, that religious leaders dispute and hate each other, and speculative men are esteemed unsound and frivolous. But to a sound judgment, the most abstract truth is the most practical. Whenever a true theory appears, it will be its own evidence. Its test is that it will explain all phenomena

In truth, undoubtedly we have no questions to ask which are unanswerable. We must trust the perfection of the creation so far, as to believe that whatever curiosity the order of things has awakened in our minds, the order of things can satisfy. Every man’s condition is a solution in hieroglyphic to those inquiries he would put. He acts it as life, before he apprehends it as truth. In like manner, nature is already, in its forms and tendencies, describing its own design. Let us interrogate the great apparition that shines so peacefully around us. Let us inquire, to what end is nature?

v/r

Mike

[MikeF]

Here's another way to look at it abstract as it is.

Time

In times of doubt
In times of fear
In times of anger
In due time

Simply a wave
in the ocean
of what we call
time

Searching
Striving
for nothing
and everything

Paradox,
but is it?
Because we simply cannot comprehend
the Creator's equation

If we would only simply listen
to what she has to say
Maybe one day
In due time

v/r

Mike

[Surferbeetle]

Mathematical modeling and simulation (war gaming) allows anybody who is willing to spend the time, effort, or resources to cost effectively examine various scenarios. From this examination one can develop probable costs, schedules, and benchmarks associated with a particular endeavor and chose the one most likely to result in success. As with any methodology, advice derived from mathematical modeling and simulation does not give a leader a magic pass to ignore common sense nor is it to be feared as voodoo magic whose use will consign our souls to the lowest circles of hell.

America as a whole understands the importance of war-gaming at a very deep level; note our world-renowned college educational system and until recently, our possession of the worlds strongest financial system. Our college system consistently explores the concepts of mathematical modeling and simulation in associate through graduate educational programs in business, engineering, finance, and manufacturing – all disciplines that are crucial to a nations ability to survive and thrive. When the immediate dust of the current financial debacle settles, I expect that we will still have the strongest financial system...however we have permanently damaged ourselves and it will take time and effort to recover.

The Economists 2009 Pocket World in Figures ranks economies by GDP in USD:
1. America 13,164 billion
2. Japan 4,368 billion
3. Germany 2,897
4. China 2,645 billion
5. United Kingdom 2,377 billion

In the US military the Air Force and Navy have taken a page from the successes of the civilian world (and of course vice versa) and worked to incorporate the use of mathematical modeling and simulation into their daily operations. We in much of the US Army still prefer to war game things in the physical world: our Combat Training Centers are heavily resourced examples of this preference. We in the Army are slowly, when compared to my civilian experiences, moving in the direction of incorporating mathematical modeling and simulation into our TTP’s. This journey will take time, have setbacks, and generally be a PITA however when balanced against the adapt or die imperative it’s an easy choice to make.

@ Mike F. - Thanks for starting the discussion and providing the Ted link.

[MikeF]

But, I do. I believe that we are at one of those times in history where the decisions we make will effect our future. It is simply a matter on how we act or react. For your consideration. This narrative is simply one way of looking at today's world.

v/r

Mike

I think you ought to know, dear brothers, about the hard time we went through in Asia. We were really crushed and overwhelmed, and feared we would never live through it. We felt we were doomed to die and saw how powerless we were to help ourselves; but that was good, for then we put everything into the hands of God, who alone could save us, for He can even raise the dead. And He did help us, and saved us from a terrible death; yes, and we can expect him to do it again.
-Apostle Paul and Timothy's letter to Corinth

Today's world seems chaotic, confusing, and uncontrollable- terrorism, economic upheaval, flu pandemics, insurgencies, narco-insurgencies, and failed/failing states. In these times of perceived crisis, some use fear to push individual agendas while others are overcome by greed and manipulate events for pursuit of gluttony. Conversely, leaders, commanders, and statesmen have taken action during these times to push projects of progress to better serve the common good.

We are in such a time now, and we need to consider how we will act. In the big ocean that scopes and frames what we call human history, time, matter, and space, waves ebbs and flow in a perfect pattern. Every generation or two, deep within the depths of darkness along the ocean's floor, the earth shifts and quakes in a bifurcation point, and the energy produced forms a tsunami.

We are in such a time now. It is neither good nor bad, better or worse. It just is. Paradoxically, today is the same as yesterday. It is simply a matter of how we feel and think about it.

The arithematics of life I suppose. If it is possible to measure nature in math, if it is possible to send a man to the moon and beyond, then it maybe possible to develop laws of social sciences if the creator allows us to see his equations.

Today, I see opportunity, but it is more than that- I am pondering and dreaming of the world that my great-great grandchildren will inherit. Will they be conscripted in an occupational army trying to maintain the American Empire? Will they work as social entrepeneurs trying to educate the illiterate, feed the hungry, house the homeless, and employ the unemployed? Will they live in a police state as the Department of Homeland Security attempts to control thoughts in fear of a terrorist attack? Will they be studying the former United States of America in their textbooks? I wander and wonder.

"But, My son, be warned: there is no end of opinions ready to be expressed. Studying them can go on forever and become very exhausting!" (Ecclesiastes 12:12 LB).

[MikeF]

We routinely disqualify testimony that would plead for extenuation. That is, we are so persuaded of the rightness of our judgement as to invalidate evidence that does not confirm us in it. Nothing that deserves to be called truth could ever be arrived at by such means.
-Marilynne Robinson, The Death of Adam

There are times when you choose to believe something that would normally be considered absolutely irrational. It doesn't mean that it is actually irrational, but it is surely not rational. Perhaps it is suprarationality: reason beyond the normal definitions of fact or data-based logic; something that makes sense only if you can see a bigger picture of reality. Maybe that is where faith fits in. -Wm. Paul Young, The Shack

so in the middle you have a paradox...I'm still in the middle...

v/r

Mike

[William F. Owen]

I posted it b/c I want to see what others felt about it. Gurley doesn't suggest any conclusions b/c he cannot. He is a physicist, not a soldier, but he did find a trend. Moreover, he's getting people across both the academic and military worlds upset, but he's getting them to think

.
Mike, good job posting it. I think it merits attention, but having given it some I am less than impressed.

I think that's a good thing- too much of our past policy was based off idealogy not reason and history. He hasn't proving anything, but he's started a discussion.

Well the field of military data and statistics is vast. Despite what he says, I am 99% sure the Pentagon has done the same analysis, and found it generates nothing useful. The discussion is probably more about the relevance and utility of this work rather than if it tells us anything new or insightful, but I am not closed minded in such things.

I would however me more than slightly wary as to the degree of self promotion that seems to be at work.

And he has a cool accent.

He's a New Zealander!! Wait till you hear my accent.