Iran & USA allies in Afghanistan:stranger than reality

[Merv Benson]

Iran has been at war with the US since 1979. Her proxies have caused the death of more Americans than anyone besides al Qaeda, since that time. It is something the regimes admits in private and occasionally in public. While it has been clandestine, Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons could make that war even more deadly.

Iran's current activity appears to be that of helping our enemies with logistical support. Attacking that logistical support has resulted in the capture of some Iranians in Iraq and may do so in Afghanistan. Iran has responded to that capture with a bogus hostage try against the Brits and the current arrest of Americans visiting Iran.

The only reason Iran has not used more effective means in its war with the US is it fears a US response. I'm not sure why they fear such a response since we seem to be going out of our way to even acknowledge Iranian responsibility for the logistical assistance to our enemies. I guess both sides fear the consequences that might flow from that acknowledgment. We have come along way from the original announcement of the Bush doctrine on states that support terrorism.

[goesh]

Iran's nervousness can only increase as they strive to obtain nuclear weapons, because if upon obtaining that capability they are ever militarily punished for their proxy actions, they run a risk of total obliteration should they use a nuke(s) in retaliation. Should they ever respond in a non-nuke way to any punitive attacks for their proxy actions, they know they will lose their nuke facilities as a precautionary measure in the second round of retaliation. The only logical thing to do is slip a few billion under the table to Israel and have them take out Iran's nuclear capability now. After all, Israel is already the villain over there and that is exactly what villains do.

[Granite_State]

Iran's nervousness can only increase as they strive to obtain nuclear weapons, because if upon obtaining that capability they are ever militarily punished for their proxy actions, they run a risk of total obliteration should they use a nuke(s) in retaliation. Should they ever respond in a non-nuke way to any punitive attacks for their proxy actions, they know they will lose their nuke facilities as a precautionary measure in the second round of retaliation. The only logical thing to do is slip a few billion under the table to Israel and have them take out Iran's nuclear capability now. After all, Israel is already the villain over there and that is exactly what villains do.

That's if we're making the assumption that Israel CAN take out Iran's nuclear capability now.

[Mooks]

Just to add a bit of colour on the debate, here's an blogging heads video with Jeremy Shapiro of the Brookings Institute on the situation in Afghanistan. About 3/4ths of the way through he starts discussing Iran's influence after traveling to Herat. He suggest that some in NATO believe it more to be more akin to large scale smuggling, than a direct attempt by the Iranian government to destabilize the situation.

Normally I'd be a bit suspicious about this single argument, but there has been a bit of evidence lately that Tehran is in the grips of a minipower struggle, with different elements pushing different policies. Steve Clemons of the Washington Note had this interesting article about what happened behind the scenes with the 15 British Sailors. Given the convoluted power structure that currently exists, it might be possible that some elements of the Iranian government might be turning a blind eye to shipments.

Moreover its somewhat difficult to believe that on one hand Iran is embracing the Taliban, while making very disquieting noises about the Baluch issue in Pakistan.

[Armchairguy]

I wonder if the political will exists to take on the Iranians. I can see it now the media will be asking if the proof of Iranian involvement is similar to the Iraqi WMD proof and the public will lap it up, followed by the inevitable "I told you it's all about oil" from the left. It doesn't help when Hamid Karzai says Iran is Afghanistans good friend and wouldn't do such a thing. The consequences militarily suck pretty badly as well. I'm sure we have enough bombs to make life miserable in Iran, but can we handle another war at this point? Seems we're stretched pretty thin already and the Iranians know it.