Mainly terrorism in Indonesia: catch all

[Jedburgh]

From ICG: Terrorism in Indonesia: Noordin's Networks

The Indonesian police are closing in on Noordin Mohammed Top, South East Asia’s most wanted terrorist. In a dramatic pre-dawn raid on 29 April 2006 in Wonosobo, Central Java, they shot and killed two members of his inner circle and arrested two others. If and when they capture Noordin, they will have put the person most determined to attack Western targets out of commission. But the problem of Noordin’s support structure will still have to be tackled.

For four years Noordin has tapped into jihadist networks to build a following of diehard loyalists, and those same networks may be available to others. Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the region’s largest jihadist organisation, continues to provide the hard core of that following: the two killed in the Wonosobo raid were longstanding JI members, as was at least one of those arrested. But beginning in 2004, Noordin began reaching out to young men from other organisations and some with no previous organisational affiliation.

Many JI members reportedly see the group he has cobbled together – he grandly calls it al-Qaeda for the Malay Archipelago – as a deviant splinter that has done great harm to the organisation they joined in the mid-1990s. Noordin, however, reportedly sees himself as leading JI’s military wing, even though he answers to no one. He justifies his actions by citing jihadist doctrine that under emergency conditions – for example if surrounded by the enemy – a group of two or three or even a single individual can take on the enemy without instructions from an imam.

This report examines the way in which Noordin has relied on personal contacts to put his group together. It is based on interrogation depositions, court documents, and Indonesian press reports, with information crosschecked through extensive interviews with knowledgeable sources,
both official and unofficial.

[Jedburgh]

2 Jun 06 Terrorism Monitor: The Role of Kinship in Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiya

...The use of sibling relationships in jihadi recruitment is to provide further ideological support for the recruits beyond the group itself. Sometimes two or more brothers are recruited for jihad, helping each other during an operation and providing each other inspiration and reassurance. This particular type of recruitment is an effective use of kinship to ensure deeper engagement with the cause and group...

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 24 Jan 07: Jihadism in Indonesia: Poso on the Edge

...This report examines how one neighbourhood in Poso became a JI stronghold and how a small group of men managed to terrorise the city for three years before their identities became known. It looks at the links between the JI structures in Poso and Java and the local grievances and resentments driving the ongoing violence and analyses the way forward...

[Jocko54]

The TNI have demonstrated a pretty good capability in COIN ops. Their performance in Lebanon has been solid, and their efforts in places like Poso have demonstrated the type of restraint that will contribute to winning some credibility. Gen Petraeus has asked for increased Muslim participation in the coalition. What are the councils thoughts regarding Asian Muslims and the help they can provide in OIF? How can we help MNF I?

[CSC2005]

The "JI Kinship" article is a great example of how local culture impacts the structure and relationships inside a terrorist group. To often I read about terrorist theories that try to explain all terrorist groups from Yemen to Colombia. It is not rocket science to think that a terrorist groups is a by-product of its local culture, but too often this angle is overlooked in favor of nodal analysis and number crunching.

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 3 May 07: Indonesia: Jemaah Islamiyah’s Current Status

...We will have to wait for more arrests and more information from those detained in March for definitive answers to questions about JI’s current status. It is resilient but not invulnerable, and while it continues to recruit, the organisation as a whole may be shrinking. People have left for different reasons. In some cases, like Subur Sugiarto’s, it may be because a more militant wing finds JI too cautious and bureaucratic. Others, particularly released prisoners, may be co-opted, if only temporarily, by government officials hoping to infiltrate and divide the organisation. One alumnus of a JI pesantren said that he realised he had graduated with no useful skills, and the only occupation open to him, outside petty trade, was teaching in another JI school. If schools are critical to JI’s regeneration, then dissatisfaction with restrictions inside and opportunities outside may ultimately do more damage to the group than arrests....

[SWJED]

May 2007, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Where the War on Terror is Succeeding by Josh Kurlantzick.

In October 2002, Islamic radicals set off two powerful bombs on the Indonesian island of Bali. Detonated in the heart of the tourist district, they obliterated several bars and nightclubs, killing over 200 people—visiting Australians, Americans, and other foreign nationals, as well as Indonesians—and wounding still more. It was the worst terrorist attack in the country’s history. Shocked and taken aback by the carnage, the international media proclaimed the end of innocence for the tropical retreat.

To anyone who had been paying attention to political developments in Southeast Asia over the previous decade, however, the surprise was misplaced. Well before the Bali bombing, Islamists had turned the region as a whole into a front in their global jihad. In the Philippines, the radical group Abu Sayyaf, which received funding from the brother-in-law of Osama bin Laden, had built itself into a powerfully lethal force. In Indonesia, an even deadlier terror group, Jemaah Islamiah (JI), had also expanded, bombing churches and ultimately putting in motion the Bali plot...

Today, less than five years after the attack on Bali, the situation in Southeast Asia has changed dramatically. Across the region, jihadist groups like Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiah are struggling to survive, Islamist parties seem to be weakening, and the region’s newest leaders openly wage war on terror. Moreover, the United States has played a leading role in these successes, and it has done so without creating much in the way of an anti-American reaction. Indeed, Southeast Asia is proving to be a model for the “long war” against Islamist terror. The lessons of its recent progress deserve to be studied closely...

[wm]

I wonder how much of this can be attributed to the good guys providing some pretty wonderful tsunami relief to the region while the bad actors did nothing to help the stricken.
It would be interesting to see how things stand with terrorist organizations in
Thailand , Malaysia, and Myanmar these days as well.

[SWJED]

15 June AP - 2 Terror Leaders Arrested in Indonesia by Robin McDowell.

The head of Southeast Asia's most feared terrorist group was arrested along with his military chief, police said Friday, claiming a breakthrough in the fight against extremists in the world's most populous Muslim nation.

Authorities warned, however, that Jemaah Islamiyah - blamed for the 2002 Bali bombings and other attacks - and breakaway factions could still carry out strikes against Western and Christian interests...

[Jedburgh]

Counterterrorism Blog, 17 Jun 07:

Major Changes within Jemaah Islamiyah Alleged

Based on initial interrogations of top Jemaah Islamiyah members who were captured over the past week, the Indonesian police are now painting a picture of a terrorist organization attempting to consolidate in the face of heavy attrition.

According to the police, JI has now done away with its earlier region-wide mantiqi ("regional command") structure. Previously, JI had four mantiqi covering large portions of Southeast Asia and Australia. At its peak (prior to late 2002), each mantiqi consisted of up to a dozen wakilah, and each wakilah were comprised of several fiah, or cells. Overseeing all this was a markaz, a small headquarters consisting of top JI members.

It is now understood that JI still recognizes a markaz. But under the markaz, JI now divides itself into four ishoba which only cover the Indonesian island of Java. These ishoba are named after historical figures in Islam....

[SWJED]

18 June NY Times - Indonesian Terror Group Limits Attacks by Seth Mydans.

Long before the arrests of two of its top militants last week, the region’s major terrorist group had been moving away from the tactic of large-scale attacks, experts said Sunday.

This is a time of religious and social ferment, as Indonesia’s tradition of moderation and inclusiveness is tested by a rise in conservatism and an increased focus on Islam as a religion and a moral code.

Islamist violence is only one factor, and there is division and debate among militants as well as among the population at large...

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Focus, 19 Jun 07:

Indonesia Neutralizes JI as Immediate Threat

...It is evident that the number of first-generation, al-Qaeda trained operatives is dwindling, which will have important ramifications for the strategies that JI embarks on in the coming years. A lesser-known cadre of leaders should be expected to emerge out of the more traditional Darul Islam wings who will be more engaged in fomenting sectarian violence as well as in social welfare and dawa activities to rebuild JI's depleted ranks. Two of its four wings focus on recruitment. Assassinations and kidnappings by fringe groups may also increase. In the short-term, however, Indonesian counter-terrorism police unit Densus-88 deserves inordinate credit for neutralizing JI as an immediate threat.

[Jedburgh]

Time, 9 Aug 07: How Indonesia is Winning its War on Terror

....Since the first Bali bombings five years ago, Indonesia has transformed itself from a country riddled with radical Islamist movements and terror threats — Indonesians once called autumn "the bombing season" because attacks had become so regular — to one of the world's few triumphs in fighting terrorism. Even better, Jakarta has succeeded without resorting to the draconian antiterror tactics increasingly preferred by governments from Sri Lanka to Iraq.

In recent years, Indonesian authorities have arrested or killed some 300 alleged militants. Indonesia has won removal from the Financial Action Task Force's list of nations not complying with global standards on fighting money laundering and terror, and earned praise from the U.S. State Department, which lauds its "new urgency on counterterrorism." The International Crisis Group's Southeast Asia project director, Sidney Jones, probably the world's leading expert on Indonesian terror, agrees, concluding that J.I. is "certainly much weaker" today than ever before.....