Mainly terrorism in Indonesia: catch all

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 16 Jul 12: How Indonesian Extremists Regroup

The threat of extremist violence in Indonesia is not over, even though the last two years have seen major successes in breaking up extremist networks. One by one, men on the police most-wanted list have been tracked down, arrested, tried and imprisoned. The police have been good, but they have also been lucky. The would-be terrorists have been poorly trained, poorly disciplined and careless. The last major attack in Jakarta was in 2009, and the total number of people killed by terrorists in 2011 was five: three police and two of their own suicide bombers. A familiar sense of complacency has set in that the problem is largely over.

This report shows, however, that even with so many strikes against them, extremists have been able to regroup under pressure and plot new operations, often drawing on friends in prison. A highly-skilled leader with more patience than jihadis have shown to date might still be able to pull a group together and build it up without detection; certainly the determination to try has not faded. The report also shows how adversity has brought most jihadi groups into contact with one another, in a way that undercuts some of the progress made by the police in breaking up individual cells.

[davidbfpo]

An article by an Indian friend, on a quite different topic, has this aspect of countering terrorism CT:

It recommends the present Indonesian model of policing, which could transform from a repressive paramilitary force into an acceptable civilian police department in 13 years and where an April 2007 Gallup Poll found 81% of the public having confidence in the reformed police.

Link:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...india-pakistan

I have read that the Australian Federal Police (AFP) have played a role in supporting the reforms.

[davidbfpo]

Rarely reported, but IMHO a good sign:

A man threw a pipe bomb at the South Sulawesi governor while he was on a stage but the device packed with nails failed to explode, police said Monday after arresting the suspect and a second man. No one was injured...

The suspect, Awaluddin Nasir, 25, was beaten up by the crowd and arrested just after allegedly tossing the device.

Link:http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...mb-attack.html

[davidbfpo]

A very short review by a Singapore think tank of recent developments:

The recent killings of militants belonging to the so-called East Indonesia Mujahidin Commandos point not to the rise of a brand new militant network, but rather, yet another “mutation” of the old Darul Islam separatist movement or “super-organism.”

Link:http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/...SIS0082013.pdf

One does wonder how they reached this conclusion, first the apparent situation, followed by a frankly bizarre suggestion (edited citation):

Finally, the Indonesian police must recognise that excessive use of force actually strengthens the hand of Santoso and his ilk. Granted, the police have suffered casualties themselves at the hands of the militants in recent years. Thus some police officers apparently maintain that “the best kind of deradicalisation is through killing (such) people”. Such an attitude however is counter-productive: worryingly, human rights observers complain that heavy-handed Densus 88 tactics are “driving militancy”.

Perhaps all police units should explore more systematically the calibrated use of so-called less-lethal weaponry, such as for instance acoustic and directed energy weapons, with Western assistance.