Mainly terrorism in Indonesia: catch all

[Bill Moore]

http://news.yahoo.com/asia-needs-mil...075027922.html

Indonesia military launches anti-IS operation on eastern island

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia's military has launched an anti-terrorism operation on the eastern island of Sulawesi to crack down on militants with suspected links to Islamic State, the armed forces chief said on Monday.

[WarPorcus]

It was a good interview and he didn't minimize the threat. The current numbers mean little, which is why he didn't focus on numbers. Sleeping cells can sleep, but more importantly those that return can build there their own networks in their home country much like JI did in Indonesia. The threat is serious and there is no reason it will reside in 10 years. It has already existed over 20 years. We need to find the sweet spot between over and under reacting.

First I'd like to say, I should read/hang out/post here more often. The other forum - which is still excellent - has turned a bit too vitriolic for my taste.

Back to the topic at hand:

The GoI estimates that around 5-600 Indonesians are now actively participating in the Syrian conflict. Most, if not all, of these people are affiliated with Daesh/IS, instead of the more 'professional' (to an extent) jihadi groups such as AQ or even Al-Nusra.

Recently 32 Indonesians tried to enter Syria from Turkey. 16 disappeared from a tour group (which is how most of them get to Turkey by the way), and another 16 were intercepted at the border.

So far, there is little evidence that those who do manage to return have engaged in any nefarious activities. Most just slip back into the society they left. Others returned so disillusioned that they are no longer comfortable about being associated with any jihadi movements. A small portion try to build networks.

As we do not - that I know if - have any official numbers/statistics of the activities of these returning personnel vis-a-vis the jihadi movement, could you guys give me a link with the above percentage? I'd like to see if it correlates here.

[WarPorcus]

WarPorcus,

I'm not sure what statistics you're looking for, but I'll do a search through my computer tomorrow and see what I have for foreign fighter flow from Southeast Asia. A few reports point to several foreign fighters being disillusioned by ISIL's extreme behavior, so hopefully that trend continues. As for Indonesia and the Philippines (similar but still very different), JI and ASG's initial core were foreign fighters from Afghanistan during the USSR occupation. The vast majority of fighters returning that conflict didn't engage in terrorism, but it only takes a handful to have a strategic impact.

We can't compare this to the Crusades where Christians go out and fight and return to their Christian homes, nations that were already somewhat extremist on the Christian side. Fighters today are returning to countries that don't embrace their extreme (and illegitimate) beliefs, so some seek to impose their views via violence. Indonesia from what I can gather from a few short trips there, discussions with experts, and reading is that the government is doing a relatively good job of addressing the concerns of their people (within reason in a developing country), so people aren't fighting because they're being discriminating against. They're fighting to impose their extreme and unpopular beliefs. We're talking Martin L. King freedom marches here (lol).

The Philippines is another issue altogether, since their government does discriminate against their Muslim population. The government does little to address the concerns of their Muslim population, and while President Aquino has a been light of hope, his time is getting short, and not unlike our system their Congress is corrupt and eager to undo much of the progress he has made. I project the situation will devolve for the worse in the Philippines.

Regardless of the conditions on the ground, the terrorists in these countries will reconnect, or strengthen their existing links with global terrorist networks based on foreign fighter flow to support ISIL. That points to a bigger challenge for security forces. I also think those who were repulsed by ISIL may find al-Qaeda more attractive if they're still looking a group to affiliate with. Reportedly, the jihadist websites/blogs in Indonesia contain a fierce internal debate between jihadists on whether to support ISIL or AQ.

For one, I see no reason this will go away in 10 years, but hopefully it can be contained to a manageable level.

Sorry for being unclear. I meant to ask if you have any statistics as the above for Europe, but for SE Asia.

In most cases, yes, the GoI is doing a pretty decent job staving off the IS/Daesh message. Having said that domestic politics often play up the muslim angle with predictable results. We are, by no means, a bastion for the IS in Asia, but it is gaining popularity in certain demographics.

What is truly astounding is still the lack of major attacks so far. This is mostly because the majority of the population is muslim, so there's some restraint there. Heavy intelligence/security operations also seem to keep their numbers down, although it does not change the fact that the radical/extremist view is a growing concern. Especially among high schools and college campuses.

[Bill Moore]

A few links that may be helpful.

http://file.understandingconflict.or...n_Conflict.pdf

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...s-goes-to-asia

In 2012, ISIS’ appeal started to grow among Indonesian and Malaysian civil society groups that had mobilized in response to Syria’s humanitarian crisis by creating local awareness and fundraising. Within a year, several Islamic preachers in Indonesia had pledged allegiance to ISIS’ caliphate, and about half a dozen graduates from Indonesia’s Ngruki Islamic boarding school, previously a hotbed of Jemaah Islamiyah membership ideology and recruitment, are believed to have left to join the jihad in Syria (often with funding from Jemaah Islamiyah and other affiliated extremist groups).

Later in the article it explains that unlike returning fighters from Afghanistan in the early 90s, the current fighters have lost the advantage of surprise. Security forces will be monitoring the problem much more closely.

http://khabarsoutheastasia.com/en_GB.../07/feature-02

Not stats, but interesting nonetheless.

"

I am sending this message to you, Moeldoko, the National Police, and Densus 88, as well as Banser," Abu Jandal states, referring to NU's security wing.

"We are awaiting your arrival here (in Syria)… If you're not coming, we will come to you. We will return to Indonesia to enforce Sharia Islam. For those who are against us, we will slaughter each of you one by one".

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2...s-se-asia.html

ISIS posts footage of boy-trainees from SE Asia

The footage depicts a group of at least 20 boys studying, praying, eating and undergoing defence and weapons lessons in territory held by the terrorist group.

There has been a surge in Indonesian- and Malay-language material posted by ISIS online," Jasminder Singh, a research analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told The Straits Times.

http://www.mei.edu/content/map/how-i...sian-militants

The Islamic State’s (ISIS) media wing, Al-Hayat Media Center, recently released a video entitled “Join the Ranks” that features a group of Indonesian foreign fighters in Syria. In the video, the charismatic Indonesian militant Bahrumsyah calls on his fellow Indonesian Muslims to migrate to the land of the “caliphate.”[1] It is estimated that 100 to 300 Indonesian militants have gone to fight in Syria.[2] While some are spread across al-Qa‘ida (AQ)-affiliated groups such as Ahrar Sham, this essay focuses specifically on links between Indonesian militants and ISIS. Indonesians and Malaysians fighting for ISIS appear to have formed their own military unit, the Katibah Nusantara.[3] Meanwhile, 2,000 people across the Indonesian archipelago pledged allegiance to ISIS earlier this year.[4]

http://www.establishmentpost.com/ase...outheast-asia/

Asean is the fourth largest exporting region in the world. It is the most diverse and fast-moving competitive region in the world. All this would be lost if the region was riddled with terror attacks and violence.

ISIS presence in Southeast Asia
Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the largest Muslim rebel group in the Philippines, has condemned extremist jihadists in Iraq and Syria, and vowed to stop the spread of their “virus” into the Southeast Asian nation.
Another Philippine rebel group Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) claims Sunni preachers have been conducting recruitment for ISIS members.
Al-Qaeda affiliate Abu Sayyaf pledges allegiance to ISIS.

Much more in the article . . .

[WarPorcus]

Apparently DI cells in Indonesia is starting to go active.

Last month, a DI cell in Depok - a suburb of the capital - attempted to activate a chlorine laced IED.

Jakarta. Indonesian militants believed to have returned from fighting with the Islamic State group in Syria are suspected of being behind an attempted chlorine bomb attack in a shopping mall last month, police said on Wednesday.

The homemade device — made up of several bottles and a detonator — was discovered in the ITC Depok mall south of Jakarta after it failed to go off properly. Police said it was the first such attack ever attempted in Indonesia.

Insp. Gen. Tito Karnavian of the National Police said the use of the chlorine resembled tactics employed by IS jihadists, who have taken over a vast swathe of territory in Syria and Iraq.

“It really surprised us,” said the former commander of the police’s elite counter-terror unit Densus 88. “This is a signature of ISIS,” he added, referring to the jihadists by an alternative name. “It is connected to a group likely already returned from Syria.”

He said police were pursuing “very good leads” into the bomb attempt but would not reveal further details. Exposure to chlorine gas causes intense irritation to the eyes, skin and airways, and can be deadly.

IS has been accused of using chlorine, notably in a Jan. 23 car bomb attack on Kurdish forces in Iraq. The Syrian regime has also been accused of carrying out chlorine gas attacks.

A police source told BeritaSatu earlier this month that all the chemicals used to manufacture the bomb were relatively easily available, and that the perpetrators of the failed attack in Depok may have attempted to produce the nerve agent sarin.

Indonesia, a hotbed of extremist violence in the past, has largely dismantled the Islamic militant networks responsible for a string of deadly attacks throughout the country in the early 2000s.

But the rise of IS poses a new threat, with nearly 160 Indonesians confirmed by police as having left to join IS, and authorities worried about the potential for radicals to revive extremist groups on their return.

Indonesian anti-terror police this week arrested five men who allegedly arranged for a group of mostly women and children to try and enter Syria to join IS.

[Bill Moore]

Apparently DI cells in Indonesia is starting to go active.

Last month, a DI cell in Depok - a suburb of the capital - attempted to activate a chlorine laced IED.

This certainly has the potential to go viral, or at least viral enough to set back the progress Indonesia has made in recent years. I tend to look at Indonesia (like other countries) as a kaleidoscope, and with a small twist of the scope the picture can change radically. If you only view Indonesia through the eyes of a counterterrorist you see jihadists behind every bush, if you only view Indonesia through the eyes of democratic reformer, you only see hope behind every bush, and if you only view Indonesia as a businessman, you see opportunity behind every bush. Few people are that narrow minded, and most realize that reality rests upon shifting sands that can shift with great suddenness for the better or the worse.

[Jedburgh]

CSIS, 30 Jun 09: Conflict, Community, and Criminality in Southeast Asia and Australia: Assessments From the Field

A collection of essays with a foreword by Marc Sageman.

....In Southeast Asia, as in the rest of the world, it would be naïve to believe that terrorism can be defeated. It is and will remain a tactic of the weak against their government, and Southeast Asia has seen its share throughout modern history. However, the appeal of Islam is fading in some theaters but gaining strength in a few others due to local reasons. In the future, terrorism in Southeast Asia may still be waged in the name of new concepts. The key to holding it in check is to not overreact, punish only the criminals directly involved in violence, and encourage young people that might be attracted to violent ideology to pursue their political activism in a more effective and lawful way.

Essays include:

• Radical Islam in the Middle East and Southeast Asia: A Comparison

• The Middle East, Islamism, and Indonesia: Pull versus Push Factors

• Jemaah Islamiyah and New Splinter Groups

• Can Indonesian Democracy Tame Radical Islamism?

• The Role of Radical Madrasahs in Terrorism: The Indonesian Case

• Communal Violence in Indonesia and the Role of Foreign and Domestic Networks

• Radical Islam in Malaysia

• Governmental Responses to Extremism in Southeast Asia: “Hard” versus “Soft” Approaches

• The Malayu Insurgency in Thailand’s Southern Border Provinces

• “A Carnival of Crime”: The Enigma of the Abu Sayyaf

• Will the Conflict in Mindanao Look Like the Insurgency in Southern Thailand?

• Little-known Muslim Communities and Concerns in Cambodia, Burma, and Northern Thailand

• Assessment of Criminal Threats Emanating from Burma

• The Extremist Threat in Australia

• Muslim Alienation in Australia: Europe Down Under?

• Jihadi Ideology: An Overview

[Jedburgh]

CTC, 22 Jul 09: Radical Islamist Ideology in Southeast Asia

....The 17 July 2009 terrorist attacks on two hotels in Jakarta, Indonesia were a vivid reminder of the breadth of the battle space and the importance of constant vigilance. This break in Indonesia’s four-year calm might be a one-time event or an indication of a resurgent regional terror threat. With crude weapons and little logistical support, a small group of people were capable of carrying out an attack that received global media attention. The focus on the perpetrators of this attack may also veil the importance of ideologies other than global jihadism to political violence in the region, such as various strands of ethno-nationalism. As this report highlights, global jihadism is not the only ideology animating terrorist violence, and ethno-nationalism is still a prevalent force in Southeast Asia.

The inherent difficulty of tactical defense makes it ever more important to address the broader ideological and strategic aspects of the terror threat in the hopes of identifying important trends. This volume examines the salience and content of jihadi ideology across Southeast Asia in an attempt to gain a better understanding of the types of threats and susceptibility to global jihadist violence in the region.....

Essays Include:

• The Landscape of Jihadism in Southeast Asia

• The Current and Emerging Extremist Threat in Malaysia

• The historical development of Jihadi Islamist thought in Indonesia

• The Influence of Transnational Jihadist Ideology on Islamic Extremist Groups in the Philippines: The Cases of the Abu Sayyaf Group and the Rajah Solaiman Movement

• Ideology, Religion, and Mobilization in the Southern Thai Conflict

• A Survey of Southeast Asian Global Jihadist Websites

[Bill Moore]

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-...n-u.s-embassy/

He said the suspects belonged to a new group called the Harakah Sunni for Indonesian Society, or HASMI.

"From evidence found at the scene, we believe that this group was well prepared for serious terror attacks," Alius said.

Sticking with the theme of trends, what we seem to be seeing in Indonesia is the result of effective security operations that forces an enduring threat to continuously morph into new terrorist cells and organizations. Defeat of the idea and the strategic logic of terrorism is no where in sight. The terrorists like most adversaries have a political objective that won't be countered by population centric operations that focus on economic development and the rule of law. It may be we just have to accept this as the new norm until their is (if there is) an evolution in their underlying ideology and political goals. I think that means our security forces (the US and all its partners) need to focus our main effort on intelligence and disruption from a security aspect. Individual governments will have to wage the political competition within in their own borders.

Last month, police arrested 10 Islamist militants and seized a dozen homemade bombs from a group suspected of planning suicide attacks against security forces and plotting to blow up the Parliament building. The alleged bomb maker turned himself in to police while wearing an empty suicide vest.

Recent terror attacks in the country have been carried out by individuals or small groups and have targeted security forces and local "infidels" instead of Westerners, with less deadly results. The arrests announced Saturday appear to be the first in recent years to involve a group that allegedly planned to target foreign facilities.

Different groups experimenting with different approaches to achieve a common political objective.

[Dayuhan]

Sticking with the theme of trends, what we seem to be seeing in Indonesia is the result of effective security operations that forces an enduring threat to continuously morph into new terrorist cells and organizations. Defeat of the idea and the strategic logic of terrorism is no where in sight. The terrorists like most adversaries have a political objective that won't be countered by population centric operations that focus on economic development and the rule of law. It may be we just have to accept this as the new norm until their is (if there is) an evolution in their underlying ideology and political goals. I think that means our security forces (the US and all its partners) need to focus our main effort on intelligence and disruption from a security aspect. Individual governments will have to wage the political competition within in their own borders.

Actually the idea and the strategic logic of terrorism have been significantly challenged, mainly through continued success in avoiding further sectarian conflict in Sulawesi, Maluku, etc. Those conflicts have long been the motivator that links the radical core to a broader audience and gives them recruits and credibility. That core is still there, and probably will be for some time, but without local sectarian conflict they become increasingly isolated from the community and have a harder time attracting recruits and resources. The radical narrative coming out of the Middle East doesn't have a broad enough appeal in Indonesia to generate much active public support, they need local issues, and increasingly they haven't got them.

[Bill Moore]

Posted by Dayuhan,

Actually the idea and the strategic logic of terrorism have been significantly challenged, mainly through continued success in avoiding further sectarian conflict in Sulawesi, Maluku, etc. Those conflicts have long been the motivator that links the radical core to a broader audience and gives them recruits and credibility. That core is still there, and probably will be for some time, but without local sectarian conflict they become increasingly isolated from the community and have a harder time attracting recruits and resources. The radical narrative coming out of the Middle East doesn't have a broad enough appeal in Indonesia to generate much active public support, they need local issues, and increasingly they haven't got them.

What I wrote is the defeat of the idea and the strategic logic of terrorism is no where in sight. That argument stands, just because they're not gaining traction doesn't mean "their" strategic logic is going to change, they will continue to use the tactic to pursue their strategic ends. I agree one of their goals is to foment ethnic strife, which they were successful doing in the past. Hopefully their society remains resilient to those provocations, but regardless a significant core of true believers are not going to stop using terrorism among other tactics. I agree they have a much hard path to go down than extremists in S. Asia and the Middle East.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.boston.com/news/world/asi...VfP/story.html

Indonesian police kill alleged militant in raid

National police spokesman Brig. Gen. Boy Rafli Amar said the two suspects were among fugitives wanted for the assassination of two police officers who were killed last month while investigating terrorist activities in the area.

The two men resisted arrest by throwing homemade bombs toward security forces during the raid at a house in Kayamaya village in Poso district, Amar said.

They fight with the same tenacity their brothers in the ME do, so much for the argument they're not as susceptible to radicalization.

Poso was a flashpoint for violence between Christians and Muslims that left more than 1,000 people dead in 2001 and 2002. Authorities believe the district is now a terrorist hotbed.

They have no qualms about killing those from other ethnic groups, and creating communal strife is still part of their strategy, this wasn't a flash in the pan.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/public...273537D1775%7D

Authorities early Sept discovered new Islamist militant group in Jakarta, with mission to attack potential targets including police stations, govt officials and Buddhists, the latter over Myanmar’s treatment of Muslim Rohingya people: 8 Sept blast injured 6 including 1 militant in Depok near Jakarta; 1 accomplice surrendered 9 Sept, 2 suspects arrested. Police 22-23 Sept arrested 10 suspected terrorists in Solo for planning attack on parliament, 1 Sept arrested member of group behind Aug attacks on police. Following Aug attacks by Sunni mob on Shiites in Madura, E Java, Shiite organisations rejected govt’s plan to relocate Shiite community to avoid further sectarian violence; Religious Affairs Minister Suryadharma Ali 6 Sept proposed Sunni-Shiite dialogue. Demonstrations against anti-Islam film 17 Sept turned violent in front of U.S. embassy; protests in Medan led U.S. to temporarily shut down consulate. In Papua police 2-3 Sept arrested some 25 Free Papua Movement (OPM) members including leader Danny Kogoya for alleged involvement in Aug 2011, May 2012 shootings.

The extremists are persistently seeking opportunities to exploit, the latest being the Burmese attacks on the Rohingya people. This will be used as justification to attack Buddhists in yet another attempt to mobilize Muslims to arms. I do agree that the vast majority of Indonesian muslims do not support this, but Indonesia is the world's largest Muslim nation but the 3-7% that are estimated to support these radical views still equates to tens of thousands. Of those a much smaller percentage will be motivated to participate in violent acts, but is still signficant.

[RotzKhan]

Interesting report from ICG on changes in Indonesian terrorism. Notes 2011 suicide bombings links to vigilante actions not directly tied to more traditional established groups connected with international jihad:

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/region...n-cirebon.aspx

The opening paragraph:

Anti-vice raids and actions against non-Muslim minorities are becoming a path to more violent jihadism in Indonesia. The 2011 suicide bombings of a police mosque in Cirebon, West Java and an evangelical church in Solo, Central Java were carried out by men who moved from using sticks and stones in the name of upholding morality and curbing “deviance” to using bombs and guns. They show how ideological and tactical lines within the radical community have blurred, meaning that counter-terrorism programs that operate on the assumption that “terrorists” are a clearly definable group distinguishable from hardline activists and religious vigilantes are bound to fail. They also mean that the government must develop a strategy, consistent with democratic values, for countering clerics who use no violence themselves but preach that it is permissible to shed the blood of infidels (kafir) or oppressors (thaghut), meaning government officials and particularly the police.

[Bill Moore]

http://file.understandingconflict.or...n_Conflict.pdf

INDONESIANS AND THE SYRIAN CONFLICT
30 January 2014
IPAC Report

This is a very insightful report that should also probably be posted under one of the Al-Qaeda threads, but since the geographic focus is the impact of jihad in Syria on Indonesia I opted for this thread with the very relevant title of the evolving terrorist threat in Southeast Asia.

You need to read all 13 pages of the report to capture of the full scope of the analysis. If you read the first two pages, you can confuse it with being overly alarming that Indonesians are sending fighters to Syria to support Al-Qaeda, but it is much more nuanced as you progress and points to the various divisions within the Indonesian jihadist community on whether to support ISIS, Al-Nusra, local groups, or even Assad. More importantly if read with an open mind it help readers make a shift from the tactical (focused on cells committing terrorist acts) to the strategic and gain an appreciation of what they're trying to achieve and the plan for doing so. It also validates what many already appreciate, which is politics are not just local affairs, but local issues have global implications, especially with nations/identity groups that don't appreciate state borders.

The Syrian conflict is also attractive to Indonesian extremists because it enables them to apply the so-called “two-arm strategy”, the title of a book that has become a runaway hit in the jihadi community.

The two army strategy is explained in detail in the report, in short it was written my an Al-Qaeda strategist. Much of it is similar to "The Management of Strategy," another jihadist strategy, but this one is focused on how to exploit the Arab Spring. The author notes,

the restoration of the caliphate cannot start in what he calls “politically dead” areas like Sudan and Mauritania that are of little importance to the Islamic street. Instead it must start in an area of vital interest, near to areas of religious influence, with natural barriers for defence and secure bases. The two places that have these qualities are Syria and Yemen.

The conflict in Syria has impacted the jihadist movement in Indonesia (and I'm sure many other countries) in ways that can't be fully appreciated yet. Most significantly it has given the jihadist movement a voice again which can breath new life into what was a dying movement in Indonesia. A number of Islamist leaders and their websites are leveraging it in different ways, one I found most interesting was,

The Syrian conflict has already had an impact in Indonesia by convincing many extremists that their local jihad should be set aside for now to devote energy to the more important one abroad.

JI’s Abu Rusydan expressed a widely held view when he said: Why should we expend so much energy by thinking small and undertaking a local jihad experiment as we’ve done up till now?

He went on to say that history showed that the local jihads only end in defeat, because the enemy will be as strong or stronger than any force trying to destroy them. He used as an example the state set up by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the 1990s that eventually collapsed after the Americans invaded. He also pointed to Darul Islam, defeated by the TNI in the 1960s. He said it was time for Indonesians to join the global jihad – a war undertaken collectively by jihadi forces from different countries in an area where victory was assured in prophecies. Indonesians would find the victory that up till now has been elusive: the establishment of an Islamic caliphate.

The conclusion seems reasonable, but elsewhere in the article the author notes is the political situation in Indonesia changes, then the potential for a revived jihadist movement will exist.

Without local grievances to build on, no mujahid coming back from Syria or Yemen or anywhere else can build much of a movement, and without community support, as Abu Rusydan has repeatedly argued, no movement can succeed. Indonesia’s great strengths are its own political stability and relatively peaceful regional environment. It is nonetheless worth keeping an eye on Syria.

[Dayuhan]

They fight with the same tenacity their brothers in the ME do, so much for the argument they're not as susceptible to radicalization.

Yes, they fight hard, and there are radicals. As in most places, the inner circle will not de-radicalize and they will not change. They will eventually have to be killed or imprisoned. What can be done, however, is to isolate that radical core from the broader societal base to the greatest possible extent, which makes it harder for the radicals to hide and to recruit replacements for those arrested of killed. In Indonesia the reduction in domestic sectarian conflict has not eliminated the radical core, but it has succeeded to some extent in isolating it from the broader population.

They have no qualms about killing those from other ethnic groups, and creating communal strife is still part of their strategy, this wasn't a flash in the pan.

Clearly they want to re-ignite the sectarian fighting, but so far they are not succeeding. 12-15 years ago an incident like that would have generated an instant flare-up. That of course is what the radicals want. Hopefully they won't get it.

I do agree that the vast majority of Indonesian muslims do not support this, but Indonesia is the world's largest Muslim nation but the 3-7% that are estimated to support these radical views still equates to tens of thousands. Of those a much smaller percentage will be motivated to participate in violent acts, but is still signficant.

3-7% of Indonesia is a lot of people. How many of those will actually give support up to the point of embracing terrorism remains to be seen, though. My guess is that a focus on Syria will prove to be a poor tactical move, as Syria is a long way from Indonesia and not a matter of immediate concern to most Indonesian Muslims... but as always, we will see. Not much to be done about it anyway, beyond keeping an eye on who goes and who comes back. That's the job of the Indonesians, and they are able to do it, though I'd assume that the US and other players will feed them any intel they can on movements of their nationals.

[Bill Moore]

Article posted on the SWJ News Roundup

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la...ry.html#page=1

Meet two Indonesians who are training to join Islamic State

"I think there's some evidence that there's enough of a support base [in Indonesia] that if they got the green light from ISIS — which they haven't yet — they could quite quickly set up a structure of ISIS here," Jones said. "It would be tiny and there would be lots of opposition, but it raises concerns [that they might] follow other kinds of orders from ISIS, which could include violence."

As many readers know, over half of the world's Muslims reside in South and Southeast Asia. The potential for extremism is alarming, but unfortunately despite our claims of dedicating effort to remain left of bang, we tend to ignore this and focus on the 5 meter knife fight.

According to an Australian intelligence report obtained by news website The Intercept, two Indonesian commercial pilots have pledged devotion to Islamic State. Ridwan Agustin, a former AirAsia pilot, may have already traveled to Syria

.

It doesn't many to have a strategic impact. ISIL conducts a more or less conventional in Syria and Iraq, and an atomized global surrogate war with self-radicalized individuals of various capabilities. An airline pilot controls a potential weapon of mass destruction.

"For Muslim people, there's a quite famous proverb: Live in dignity, or die in jihad. If we die doing this, we will have won."

[davidbfpo]

An article in the free online journal Perspectives on Terrorism 'Countering the (Re-) Production of Militancy in Indonesia: between Coercion and Persuasion' by Paul Carnegie.

The Abstract:

In the early 2000s, Indonesia witnessed a proliferation of Islamist paramilitary groups and terror activity in the wake of Suharto’s downfall. Having said this, over the years since Suharto’s downfall, the dire threat predictions have largely failed to materialize at least strategically. This outcome raises some interesting questions about the ways in which Indonesian policy responded to the security threat posed by Islamist militancy. Drawing on Temby’s thesis about Darul Islam and Negara Islam Indonesia and combining this with Colombijn and Lindblad’s concept of ‘reservoirs of violence’, the following article argues that countering the conditioning factors underlying militancy and the legacy of different ‘imagined de-colonizations’ is critical for degrading militant threats (especially Islamist ones) in Indonesia. Persistent and excessive punitive action by the state is counter-productive in the long run. It runs too high a risk of antagonizing and further polarizing oppositional segments of the population. That in turn perpetuates a ‘ghettoized’ sense of enmity and alienation amongst them towards the state and wider society. By situating localized responses to the problem in historical context, the following underscores the importance of preventative persuasion measures for limiting the reproduction of militancy in Indonesia.

Link:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/...ticle/view/458

[davidbfpo]

An excellent BBC report on Indonesia the world's most populous Muslim nation, which includes how extremism is there knawing away:http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35055487

A key passage:

Archipelago Islam, or Islam Nusantara as it's known locally, was built over the centuries on Islam that arrived from several other parts of the world and was initially intertwined with Hinduism and ancient Javanese religions. In a large and diverse country stretching over 3,000 miles from east to west and composed of more than 17,000 islands, a less tolerant and inclusive interpretation of the Muslim faith may have struggled to survive. It came to be based on five principles - social justice; a just and civilised humanity; belief in one God; Indonesian unity; government by the will and consent of the people.

There is a main thread on Indonesia, mainly on terrorism:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...read.php?t=737

[omarali50]

Its a good PR effort, and who knows, it may even work. But anyone with any knowledge of history will find it hard to stay on message with a straight face. Javanese Islam is more eclectic than the rest, but at both the Eastern and Western ends, much more "traditional" Islam did indeed find it possible to survive and even thrive. The problem with this approach (to cover up actual history with platitudes like Yenni's "five principles") is that they are liable to exposure and lack depth or staying power.
On the other hand, maybe that is just because some of us (luckily, very few of us) are incorrigible pessimists and cynics or far too pedantic about history for our own good... Maybe (and I sincerely hope this is the case) a mildly hedonistic consumer culture can build a new "moderate" and tolerant national identity out of scattered bits of Javanese multicultralism and big dollops of modern state-sponsored "messaging" (aka propaganda).
I am not being facetious. I really really do hope this can work. The alternatives are all far more unpleasant.

[davidbfpo]

A developing situation after a bomb and gun attack, possibly mobile. Six dead, including three police officers.

Rolling news coverage:http://www.theguardian.com/world/liv...rolling-report and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-35309116