Using drones: principles, tactics and results (amended title)

[Woland]

Just to make a brief foray into the realms of hypothesising (I am J2, after all), how would the strategic - and tactical, for that matter - calculus alter if the Americans decide they would like to look at ways extending these drone strikes into the Quetta area? Could that policy co-exist with the reconciliation bribery initiative? Are the Taliban cammnders resident in Quetta more or less likely to reconcile if the threat of being killed in Quetta is real? At this stage I would think strikes would be a step too far for the Pakistanis, but I'd be surprised if it's something the Americans are not looking at.

[omarali50]

IF the US were to strike as far as Quetta, it would mean one of two things, and BOTH make actual drone targeting and tactical issues pretty much irrelevant:
1. Pakistan has agreed to such strikes. In that case, it means Pakistan has given up the "good taliban" (betrayed them?) and in that case, you dont really need drones, low paid pakistani police officers could do the job (and the surviving members of the "shura" would escape to the badlands or back into afghanistan, not stay in quetta). Individual terrorists can certainly hide in big cities, but then they are much more hidden to drones than they are to the local police.
My point is, if the Pakistani state ever decides to betray their friends, then its not a drone issue in big cities like Quetta (this is NOT the case in the tribal areas..there the pakistani state may have even less reach than the drones, so drones may be needed even if Pakistan is one hundred percent cooperative, as is maybe the case in South Waziristan?)
2. Pakistan has NOT agreed and the US has decided it doesnt care. In that case, the US has many more direct ways of making Pakistan change their mind and those would probably be much more important than hunting for a needle in haystack in a country where you dont have too much good intelligence. In other words, why look for an invisible shura in a "hostile" country when you can look for the very visible prime minister and have HIM change his mind about cooperation....
Just my amateur thoughts

[davidbfpo]

Dead Terrorists Tell No Tales:Is Barack Obama killing too many bad guys before the U.S. can interrogate them? is an article in FP: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._tell_no_tales

It is a good read and this is a 'taster':

Hold the applause. Obama's escalation of the "Predator War" comes at the very same time he has eliminated the CIA's capability to capture senior terrorist leaders alive and interrogate them for information on new attacks. The Predator has become for President Obama what the cruise missile was to President Bill Clinton -- an easy way to appear like he is taking tough action against terrorists, when he is really shying away from the hard decisions needed to protect the United States.

And ends with:

The fact that Obama's administration no longer does this when it locates senior terrorist leaders today means the president is voluntarily sacrificing intelligence that could protect the American people -- and that the U.S. homeland is at greater risk of a terrorist attack.

I trust that this aspect of CT has been fully debated inside government, although I am sceptical that any leader living in the FATA could be captured for interrogation.

Hypothetical scenario: the Nigerian bomber-to-be is id'd in a Yemeni city, shortly before he starts his journey to what we now know was Detroit. Attempt to capture or strike with high explosive?

[William F. Owen]

Hypothetical scenario: the Nigerian bomber-to-be is id'd in a Yemeni city, shortly before he starts his journey to what we now know was Detroit. Attempt to capture or strike with high explosive?

Give me the briefing pack and I'll give you an answer....
Since he'll turn up at an airport, it seems like that might be a good place to give " 'im a tug" - a phrase I'm sure David is familiar with!

[tequila]

Dead Terrorists Tell No Tales:Is Barack Obama killing too many bad guys before the U.S. can interrogate them? is an article in FP: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._tell_no_tales

It is a good read and this is a 'taster':

I disagree - the article has little value except for partisan talking points. Note that complete and utter lack of any sort of question of whether or not snatch missions are even feasible. He simply asserts that they are not being tried or even considered because the President does not value intelligence for unknown reasons.

Thiessen's expertise comes via his experience as a speechwriter rather than an intelligence professional, and the title of his book gives his perspective. He is a torture advocate, and his primary problem is that Obama has ended the practice.

[S-2]

"Plus the author and group doing the polling are not fully id'd."

You reference a survey conducted by Ms. Farhat Taj of the Univ. of Oslo and a non-profit group called AIRRA (Mod's note their webpage is:http://www.airra.org/home/). Ms. Taj is an pashtun womens rights specialist and researcher from FATAville whose work is rapidly morphing into a crusade for the use of drones. I've had numerous e-mail conversations with her and she's done some interesting op-eds in the Pakistani dailies. Here are some of them to include the original survey-

Drone Attacks: A Survey-The NEWS March 5, 2009

Analysis: Drone Attacks-Challenging Some Fabrications NEWS Jan. 2, 2010

ANALYSIS: Drone attacks and US reputation-DAILY TIMES Feb. 6, 2010

Her cry was picked up by one op-ed columnist of whom I'm aware in Pakistan named Irfan Husain. His editorial is also worth the read-

Howling At The Moon-DAWN Irfan Husain Jan. 9, 2010

Ms. Taj contends that she's access to FATA IDPs inside camps in NWFP as well as other sources via phone. It makes for interesting reading. Still, I appreciate her perspectives and find that some of our leading voices in military academia to lack certain knowledge of target effect and populace reaction. In short, the area is highly isolated so claims of collateral damage and threats to Pakistani sovereignty strike me as fallacious and somewhat skewed.

Only the taliban know for certain who's been killed. Our intel have some idea. I doubt anybody else lacking special access has a clue.

Thanks.

[William F. Owen]

Ms. Taj contends that she's access to FATA IDPs inside camps in NWFP as well as other sources via phone. It makes for interesting reading. Still, I appreciate her perspectives and find that some of our leading voices in military academia to lack certain knowledge of target effect and populace reaction. In short, the area is highly isolated so claims of collateral damage and threats to Pakistani sovereignty strike me as fallacious and somewhat skewed.

When has ever killing the enemy ever been counter-productive?
Until serving officers and other other academics gather the collective balls to start questioning these "leading voices", about the rubbish they peddle, they frankly deserve to conned.

[S-2]

"Until serving officers and other other academics gather the collective balls to start questioning these "leading voices", about the rubbish they peddle, they frankly deserve to conned."

Well William, I've e-mail with one at U.S. Naval Post-Graduate School who's a department chair who's opposed named John Arquilla. His buddy Tom Johnson is opposed. Killcullen gave the classic testimony before Congress last April about only killing 12 HVTs and, I believe, Andrew Exum. Most seem to either fear some paktunwali-based backlash or violations of Pakistani sovereignty. The former seems overstated and the later duplicitous given the violations of Pakistani sovereignty by OBL, Haqqani, Hekmatyar, and Omar nevermind the various, chechyan, uighars, uzbeks and others scattered throughout FATAville.

Ms. Taj is embittered at the abandonment of the FATA people into the hands of these animals by the GoP. I suspect that's true. Most are aware of the devastation to the tribal maliks and I believe that represents only the tip of the iceberg there.

In anycase, I believe there is a subtle but discernable shift underway among the Pakistani polity from blatant opposition and into some more neutral ground. Most self-serving and largely a function of H. Mehsud's whacking. I spend a fair amount of time on a Pakistani defense board which caters to a rather "vibrant" crowd. We're hated but they're not often really sure why except that's the way it's supposed to be...oh, and Israel.

Thanks.