Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
In the end, assassinations can become detrimental rather than advantageous - by virtue of millions of side-effects.
Assassination is fraught with repercussions. Even more so when the assassin uses a missile that often kills others in proximity. While assassinations may be useful, if very, very carefully targeted, there are too many unknowns to warrant them on a grand scale. They also should be carried out with the precision of a rifle, not through explosives. That is where drones would be most effective, in tracking the target.

Targeting leadership can throw an organization off balance temporarily, but that is only advantageous to the assassin if boots are on the ground to take advantage of the confusion. To believe that assassinations will dissuade others from occupying leadership positions out of fear of being killed themselves ignores much of history.

Fuchs also makes a great point vis-a-vis AQ. As he notes, AQ is more idea than organization so it matters little who is in charge at HQAQ, as long as the idea stays alive, and one cannot kill ideology with Predators. Also, death is only a deterrent to those who want to live.

Taking out Castro in '59? Intriguing. Would Raul have been strong enough to step in? Or would leadership have fallen to Camilo Cienfuegos or Juan Almeida? Would the M-26-7 have accepted Che as its leader?

I’m pretty sure taking Castro out would not have allowed Batista to regain power, once he left Cuba he lost it, but the repercussions of Castro’s death are intriguing. Maybe no “Bay of Pigs” or “Cuban Missile Crises”? Maybe I could buy Cuban cigars without having to go to Canada. Hopefully that silliness ends soon.

I think a bigger impact to the revolution would have been in ’56, if he had been killed shortly after the landing at Playa Las Coloradas. Fidel was the soul of M-26-7 and it was very small then, the survivors may not have been able to rally. I think even then there probably still would have been a revolution, but later, early ‘60s perhaps.