It's the Tribes (merged thread)

[Steve the Planner]

Tribe guy:

You can ready His Excellency Ambassador Sumaida'ie's bio at www.iraqembassy.us/Ambassador.htm

He is also a subject written about in Linda Robinson's Petreaus book.

If you want to wrap him in your worldview of noble tribes, I can't change that, but I watched him sit across from Linda as she gave a speech in which she said the tribe thing was overplayed in Iraq, and he shook his head in agreement.

Maybe there are other dimensions???

Steve

[Surferbeetle]

From today's BBC Dramatic plane arrest of ex-Iraq minister

Iraq's former trade minister has been arrested at Baghdad airport on corruption charges as he was trying to leave the country.

Officials said Abdul Falah Sudani had been on a flight to the United Arab Emirates which was asked to turn back to Baghdad so he could be arrested.

Mr Sudani resigned as minister earlier this month amid claims officials in his department had embezzled large sums.

He denies wrongdoing. Investigators had already arrested one of his brothers.

Sabah Mohammed Sudani was held on suspicion of corruption at a checkpoint in the south of the country on 9 May.

[tribeguy]

Overplayed in some cases - yes. The Tribal Awakening is certainly overplayed at his point in time.

Overplayed in accordance with our understanding of tribes yes. But there is something about the tribal system that we don't get -that something is where tribe and sect meet.

The underlying story of the insurgency, and much of Iraqi history has to do with struggles of groups of people over who should rule the Caliphate. Tribe and sect meet at this juncture.

Which are the tribes from which the ruler of the Caliphate should come? This is a body of knowledge that you don't find in western books, and further puts UBL and middle eastern political Islam in a light that is much more understandable, and gives more predictive power than trying to interpret events on the ground in terms of who we westerners think about the tribes.

The Tribal Awakening, from a certain perspective, has been overplayed.

The analysis of tribes with respect to actually figuring out "why" the insurgency happened, and why those conditions still exist today speaks to the center of COIN.

The noble tribes are most certainly a part of this answer. I certainly don't mean to downplay the efforts of those with "real responsibility" in that area, however, I am also certain that nobody is talking about the noble tribes and their dispositions with respect to the current GOI. The divergence of interest between Sunni Noble tribes and their Shi'ite counterparts explains an awful lot about why the insurgency wasn't a united front against US forces, and why they were fighting each other.

True, I am withholding some information - but I am doing so so that you all can be the ones who discover this on your own. The subject falls squarely in the field of our anthropologist friends. They are the ones that should be able to answer the questions regarding the noble tribes with great specificity with respect to Iraq. Their theories and analytical models, if applied most directly to events on the ground in Iraq, will show what I am talking about with respect to the noble tribes.

Do a cursory review of all of the AUAB's except for the ((Al-Mujama'i)) that is in custody right now (he's an imposter - a tool in an information operation against AQ). Find out whether or not they are from noble tribes.

Then, do a cursory review of the tribal affiliations of Iraqi Shi'ite Imams (not ((Al-Sistani)), he's Irani).

So what? I think you will find that all of the AUAB's are from Sunni noble tribes, and the majority of the major Iraqi Shi'ite Imams are from noble tribes as well.

The previous speaker of the house was Mahmud ((Al-Mashhadani)), the future one will be a ((Al-Samara'i)). Both are Sunni noble tribes. Both speakers, in sucesssion. All the AUAB's - in succession, and most if not all of the Shi'ite Iraqi Imams, in succession are from noble tribes.

Both sides claim to be the direct descendants of Muhammad, the prophet. Both sides tacitly believe that they have a right to at least candidacy for Caliph.

The argument over the Caliphate is ongoing, even while the current Iraqi governmnet is in power. The noble tribes are at the center of that, and thus at the center of the insurgency (on both sides of the sectarian fence).

And yes, the noble tribes have been ignored. It's a sensitive subject for our Iraqi friends. However, 'Ali Al-Wardi discusses these issues with great frankness from a historical perspective in his book "Lamahat Ijtima'iya," which alas has not been translated into English. The names of the noble tribes have shown up over and over again throughout Iraqi history - but without knowing the context of why they are noble and why this has been and is still an important driver from a cultural perspective has and does inhibit us from understanding why certain phenomena such as insurgencies and sectarian violence occur. There is a depth to this that isn't applied by our huminters and our analysts across the board.

As Galula states in his books - it is best to listen to all members of your units, even measly former buck sergeants like me. I appreciate Jedburgh's rebuke - but just because I was a buck sergeant doesn't mean that I wasn't in a position of real responsibilty, and nor does it define anything about me except to those who can't think outside of the box.

-Tribeguy

[jcustis]

Overplayed in some cases - yes. The Tribal Awakening is certainly overplayed at his point in time.

Overplayed in accordance with our understanding of tribes yes. But there is something about the tribal system that we don't get -that something is where tribe and sect meet.

The underlying story of the insurgency, and much of Iraqi history has to do with struggles of groups of people over who should rule the Caliphate. Tribe and sect meet at this juncture.

Which are the tribes from which the ruler of the Caliphate should come? This is a body of knowledge that you don't find in western books, and further puts UBL and middle eastern political Islam in a light that is much more understandable, and gives more predictive power than trying to interpret events on the ground in terms of who we westerners think about the tribes.

-Tribeguy

This sounds like the thesis to your book, which is what folks like me wanted to hear from your first post on the subject, rather than just the broad-brush claim that we don't pay enough attention to tribes. Now that wan't hard was it?

And please, please do not bristle at criticism. It doesn't get anybody anywhere around these parts. YOU brought up the topic of being a buck sergeant, as if Ted was attacking you over that fact. Maybe I am incorrect in this perception, but if you feel that passionately about what you have to say, you also need to remember that you will always have many detractors, both real and imagined.

Best of luck, but keep pushing the premise of your thesis to us. That will help me understand better why you think you have methodoligies that exceed the standard, or are going to allow us to understand aspects of tribes in ways that can benefit our warfighting efforts.

One particular question I have that I do not believe I asked well the first time is this: If we are attempting to end even our supporting role to the Iraqi govt and military, what does a deep understanding of the tribes gain us? As we apply fewer tactical and operational resources to the issues Iraq faces, and delve further in the political and strategic, aren't we talking more along the lines of diplomacy, and not lines of operation that a RCT or BCT commander would be concerned with (assuming the counterpart Iraqi Bde Cmdr even permits the US commander to send his troops off the FOB)?

In a post-SOFA Iraqi state, what does this tribal expertise gain us, when we are not in the lead over there?

How does this insight stack up against our commitment to the central government? I'm not certain I understand whether you are advocating a closer relationship with the noble tribes, or simply pointing out realities that you believe we do not see, to our peril when it comes to analysis of the situation with the tibes, who they might be supporting, who is getting courted by AQI/ISI, and who we need to interview/interrogate next.

[tribeguy]

Yeah - it was hard - my intention was to vet council members' tribal understanding - I believe I have done that, as I still haven't gotten the answer to the question: which are the noble tribes in Iraq?

I don't bristle at criticism. Note that I am not criticizing anybody except our collective selves - and I'm in that group. If that makes anybody bristle, well, that's the sound of a mind slamming shut. Hubris is a trap for everyone, from the lowly buck sergeant to the lofty general. I understand my cognitive limits. I wonder if the rest of us do?

Further, what we see as terrorism is a cultural manifestation that is deeply rooted in Middle Eastern society. It just happens to be a negative one, amongst many that are positive, I think. Identifying tribes that are sympathetic to the extremist version of the insurgency may well (actually does) point us in the direction sub tribes that are present throughout the rest of the middle east, and even Africa - many of which are logistical sources for ACF recruitment, lethal aid, yada yada. Many Iraqi tribes do indeed have a sub tribal presence in those other AOs, and vice versa.

Also - I was there when the tribes first approached us in 2004 - many saw where things were going, and wanted to provide security for themselves. If we knew so much about tribes then, as some of those who post here claim, then why didn't we help those tribe leaders that were, at that time, most clearly expressing that their true interests were in alignment with our own.

It's because we couldn't perceive what their interests were in the first place because we were clueless about the intertribal and intratribal alliances and disputes, and we had no idea what the concept of nobility is Islam, and apparently we still don't. The best answer I've gotten to the question of which noble tribes are in Iraq was from an anthropologist with a PhD, who could only provide a general definition of what a noble tribe is, and copped out with his statement that actually knowing ARE in Iraq is "granular knowledge." Oh, well, granular knowledge saves lives. Of course, I suppose I should sit back and just accept that - but if that is the best that anthropology can do for us in support of the GWOT, then I'm going to be looking elsewhere for answers. Middle Eastern scholarship is where it's at - with all of its warts, its still more reliable than somebody that worships at the altar of anthropological theories - or those that claim to be masters thereof but can't produce anything better than a cop-out answer. I've had the duty of applying what I learned on the job in Iraq.

I asked another social scientists "Which are the noble tribes in Ninewah province." I got a laughable answer - she said it was the Yazidis.

Our founding father, George Washington said "there should even be a place in our intelligence gathering for minutiae." Well, this is no small issue. It's the 800 lb gorilla sitting in the GWOT room.


So what? Get and stay curious, that's what. Noble tribes...

So, best we dive into this stuff while we are there, for the sake of the future GWOT. Might as well use our time wisely since we allegedly aren't in the lead, at least on the conventional side things. Iraqi tribes don't exist in a vacuum. Those stupid lines in the sand mean exactly @#$@ to a tribesmen with family members on both sides.

You said: One particular question I have that I do not believe I asked well the first time is this: If we are attempting to end even our supporting role to the Iraqi govt and military, what does a deep understanding of the tribes gain us? As we apply fewer tactical and operational resources to the issues Iraq faces, and delve further in the political and strategic, aren't we talking more along the lines of diplomacy, and not lines of operation that a RCT or BCT commander would be concerned with (assuming the counterpart Iraqi Bde Cmdr even permits the US commander to send his troops off the FOB)?

The answer to this question is easy if we stop looking at Iraq as a box, and start considering it as a vital organ in Middle Eastern Culture that is connected in a myriad of ways with all of its neighbors. What we learn there has a direct connection to how we work WITH tribal societies to fight extremists that hallucinate about the establishment of a caliphate and justify murder on that basis. An RCT or BCT commander has a very uenviable job of taking on the responsibilities of maintaining operations while deployed in Iraq, but has to be cognizant that this is just one phase of GWOT, and once we learn how to use the cultural tools that are at our disposal in Iraq and Afghanistan, we will have a much easier time getting ahead of the power curve in areas such as the FATA, HOA, et al. Hopefully, commanders with real experience in Iraq doing these things will find themselves in other areas, but this time thrice armed with a knowledge of the tribal system and the organic structures' importance in the fight against our enemy, and in the enemy's fight against us.

Yes, now we have an Iraqi government complete with diplomats so we can interface our governments in a way that seems best to us. As soon as all Iraqi insurgents quit, I suppose I'll stop studying the tribes and their connections to things that threaten to destabilize the state. I have at least 10 more years of this, as far as I can tell.

I don't bring any methodologies that are "mine" to the table. I do bring what other Iraqis call "their way of doing things" to your attention. It differs greatly from what we think we know - it's "their" methodologies, not mine. And yes, they are better than ours.

And, I'm NOT going to give away the answers to this and open myself up the "well, we already knew that" counter. If we all knew this, then I'd have my answer to which are the noble tribes in Iraq now, and happily move on to another area of study knowing that this field is in good hands. It's a good question. No good answers from the peanut gallery yet, though. Just personal attacks - but the issue remains, and I won't get distracted from driving the point home, unless of course somebody can make the point for me, which is preferable.

It's not that "I know something that you don't," its that they, the Iraqis know something that they aren't talking about, mainly because we have a tendency to ask the wrong questions about the tribes.

Case in point:

Is the tribal thing overplayed in Iraq? (obviously leading question to his excellency the noble tribesman).

Oh yes, Mrs. American writing a book about General Petraeus, the tribes are overplayed. Don't go in depth there! Nothing to see there!

I am sure that some are satisfied by such answers, especially those who were looking for that answer in the first place. As if our excellent Iraqi friend hadn't evaluated the question and decided to chose his words in such a manner that made you satisfied and served his interests in the first place. These people are far more sophisticated and savvy than you could ever imagine. Asking a question like the above is an invitation for him to warp his answer in such a way to make sure that you have no idea what is going on. Sound familiar? Well, it should! That's what Iraqis have been doing to us since 2003! What else would you expect.

Your example regarding Mr. ((Al-Samida'i)) is weak, proves nothing other than that the question was leading, and his agenda reflects that of the Da'awa party's own Nuri ((Al-Maliki)) who about 4 months ago told the American press that "the tribes are passe." The next week he was at a tribal council meeting, and shortly after that established the tribal support councils. Everything that you ever hear from any Iraqi politician is an information operation, particularly if people are taking notes.


-Tribeguy

[Ken White]

Yeah - it was hard - my intention was to vet council members' tribal understanding - I believe I have done that, as I still haven't gotten the answer to the question: which are the noble tribes in Iraq?

Not because no one here knows, probability is that someone or several someones may but aren't inclined to play games. The obvious answer to that is that you aren't playing games. If so, then you may be making the ol' bad impression. Like this:

"...If that makes anybody bristle, well, that's the sound of a mind slamming shut. Hubris is a trap for everyone, from the lowly buck sergeant to the lofty general. I understand my cognitive limits. I wonder if the rest of us do?

We probably do understand ours and we collectively tend to avoid slamming minds shut and raise an eyebrow at anyone callow enough to suggest such things. To follow that with this:

... No good answers from the peanut gallery yet, though. Just personal attacks - but the issue remains, and I won't get distracted from driving the point home, unless of course somebody can make the point for me, which is preferable.

Seems sort of a pot-kettle thing and as though you're looking for rejection and think you've found it.

But I believe you've only found skepticism. Nobody on this board rejects Privates who post here -- or high school or college students. A Sergeant with four years down range has beaucoup cred unless he shreds it by trying to be too slick and tap dance on the head of a pin and impress the locals with his smarts and savoir faire. That approach will get you some sharply worded questions and if the answer is "I have the holy grail" the intensity of scrutiny will increase because most of us hard headed old b@$!^&ds have heard that before and found out there was no pot of gold there. All that was there was another hill to climb and no water or resupply...

Don't think anyone here disputes that the Tribes are important, that you may have some fresh insights or that those tribes will strongly influence events in Iraq and nearby nations. I think the issue may not be closed minds here but a misperception on your part -- and that got started when you barged in and flooded the zone with excessively glib sales pitches and teasers. Most here don't do or play the academic mind game thing. FWIW, challenges to this crowd will generally get a reaction and if one isn't careful, it may not be the reaction one wants. Seems to me you can either modify your approach or chalk this crowd off as whatever you wish to call them / us and save everyone some time and effort.

That said, I do strongly agree with you on this: "Everything that you ever hear from any Iraqi politician is an information operation, particularly if people are taking notes. I'll add that if you check the Arabic notes and the English notes, there'll be a difference -- and those remarks apply throughout the Middle East and South Asia. Nothing there is as it seems, it's the area of the old Persian Empires; those who taught the area most of what they know. I'll also add that you may want to look at the impact of the Parthian and Sassanid Empires on the tribes if you haven't already done so.

[Steve the Planner]

Ken's on the right track.

Last month I took a GIS analytical course with an ESRI master, and he pointed out that nobody knows everything about it. The software guys know what it could do, but the users know what it needs to do. But even there, the military GIS folks don't know a lot about the civilian/socio-economic/engineering side, anymore than vice versa.

The issues in Iraq have always been that way--- a multi-dimensional thing that sometimes looks very different depending on where you are playing it and when. Even if one of us thought we had the whole picture (including at the top), reality has proven a very tough task master.

Like with GIS, I know, perhaps five levels of a 25 level game, and have found, through this board, other folks who know a heck of a lot about their five levels. But nobody sees the whole picture, and we all still have to wait until the historians can gradually piece it all together (along with, as Tom Ricks reminds us, some of the big parts that haven't even happened yet) in 2029.

There are not a whole lot of people involved in matters in the Middle East that think there is a magic bullet, or that the pronouncements of a politician, even the Prime Minister, may be as quixotic as to be different for each audience he meets with in a given day. Nothing new in that...

But the Iraq puzzle is still in progress, and I doubt that the final answer lies in any of the one or two layers you have discussed than in the layers I know about. Comparing notes helps, but all of us are gifted with only partial knowledge.

Maybe the real answers to the next roll of the history dice are in events in Egypt, a whole new set of issues that will arise over the Kuwaiti positions in the UN negotiations over the sanctions extension, the upcoming Iraqi SOFA vote (the requirements for which came from Grand Ayatollah Sistani's sphere), or a domestic revolution against widespread corruption and governmental ineffectiveness. I won't hold my breathe for the noble tribes to re-establish the Caliphate any time soon.

Steve

[jmm99]

with its title "It's the Tribes, Stupid" (paraphrasing James Carville is not a good idea to create any sort of civilized discourse) - and hasn't improved since.

Too bad, because the subject matter area could be of interest to me. I.e., Iraqi national law was and is Euro-Code based with some modifications. The tribal setup might suggest a parallel system or sytems of tribal law of equal or greater importance.

[Tom Odom]

Not because no one here knows, probability is that someone or several someones may but aren't inclined to play games. The obvious answer to that is that you aren't playing games. If so, then you may be making the ol' bad impression. Like this:We probably do understand ours and we collectively tend to avoid slamming minds shut and raise an eyebrow at anyone callow enough to suggest such things. To follow that with this:Seems sort of a pot-kettle thing and as though you're looking for rejection and think you've found it.

But I believe you've only found skepticism. Nobody on this board rejects Privates who post here -- or high school or college students. A Sergeant with four years down range has beaucoup cred unless he shreds it by trying to be too slick and tap dance on the head of a pin and impress the locals with his smarts and savoir faire. That approach will get you some sharply worded questions and if the answer is "I have the holy grail" the intensity of scrutiny will increase because most of us hard headed old b@$!^&ds have heard that before and found out there was no pot of gold there. All that was there was another hill to climb and no water or resupply...

Don't think anyone here disputes that the Tribes are important, that you may have some fresh insights or that those tribes will strongly influence events in Iraq and nearby nations. I think the issue may not be closed minds here but a misperception on your part -- and that got started when you barged in and flooded the zone with excessively glib sales pitches and teasers. Most here don't do or play the academic mind game thing. FWIW, challenges to this crowd will generally get a reaction and if one isn't careful, it may not be the reaction one wants. Seems to me you can either modify your approach or chalk this crowd off as whatever you wish to call them / us and save everyone some time and effort.

That said, I do strongly agree with you on this: "Everything that you ever hear from any Iraqi politician is an information operation, particularly if people are taking notes. I'll add that if you check the Arabic notes and the English notes, there'll be a difference -- and those remarks apply throughout the Middle East and South Asia. Nothing there is as it seems, it's the area of the old Persian Empires; those who taught the area most of what they know. I'll also add that you may want to look at the impact of the Parthian and Sassanid Empires on the tribes if you haven't already done so.

Most excellent response.
Tom

[marct]

Hi tribeguy,

The best answer I've gotten to the question of which noble tribes are in Iraq was from an anthropologist with a PhD, who could only provide a general definition of what a noble tribe is, and copped out with his statement that actually knowing ARE in Iraq is "granular knowledge." Oh, well, granular knowledge saves lives.

And have you ever seen me claiming that I am an "expert" on the tribes in Iraq? "Granular knowledge", at least in Anthropology, is gained both by reading about something and, most importantly, by being there. You want that, maybe I should claim to be an expert on something I'm not? You're the one claiming to be an expert at the granular level, not me.

Of course, I suppose I should sit back and just accept that - but if that is the best that anthropology can do for us in support of the GWOT, then I'm going to be looking elsewhere for answers. Middle Eastern scholarship is where it's at - with all of its warts, its still more reliable than somebody that worships at the altar of anthropological theories - or those that claim to be masters thereof but can't produce anything better than a cop-out answer. I've had the duty of applying what I learned on the job in Iraq.

Well, good for you. Since you denegrate theory, I will also note that you are making a logical category error extrapolating from my own lack of granular knowledge of the tribes in Iraq to the entire Anthropological community. I hope that you didn't apply the same logic when you were in the field!

And, I'm NOT going to give away the answers to this and open myself up the "well, we already knew that" counter. If we all knew this, then I'd have my answer to which are the noble tribes in Iraq now, and happily move on to another area of study knowing that this field is in good hands.

(from Ken)I think the issue may not be closed minds here but a misperception on your part -- and that got started when you barged in and flooded the zone with excessively glib sales pitches and teasers. Most here don't do or play the academic mind game thing. FWIW, challenges to this crowd will generally get a reaction and if one isn't careful, it may not be the reaction one wants. Seems to me you can either modify your approach or chalk this crowd off as whatever you wish to call them / us and save everyone some time and effort.

Totally agree, Ken. Tribeguy, let me point out something to you - online communities operate on a reciprocity system (if you don't know what that is, then you should read some of the theory you denigrate). These communities are "voluntary" and trans-national, so several of your rhetorical assumptions are flawed. First off, this isn't an Iraq 101 course where you get to play teacher and administer tests; your status and how people react to you, is based on what you give away (try reading Marcel Mauss, The Gift or chapter 5 of Sahlins Stone Age Economics). Second, your posts point towards an assumption that the people here are all American, something you should have realized was NOT the case by the location marker under many posters names. This shows up in your assumption that we are all "duty bound" to be involved in Iraq. Really? My government and military isn't there and never has been.

Once again, you are commiting the same category error you did earlier. You assume that because Iraqi tribes are the centre of your universe, they must be the centre of everyone's universe. Could I find out who the noble tribes in Iraq are? Sure, but why should I - I am neither your student nor you employee, and the subject, while of interest to me, is not germain to most of my research. Furthermore, you claim to already know who they are, and why they are important, so why should I bother? That knowledge is what you bring to this community.