How Sri Lanka defeated the LTTE

[Bill Moore]

I"m posting a couple of links to LTTE and supporter websites to demonstrate how sophisticated their media operation is.

http://www.eelamweb.com/

http://www.tamilnet.com/

Also a link to an article on how the LTTE's defeat will impact the drug trade in S. Asia. I can see where the loss of the LTTE merchant ships would have a significant impact, but the drug trade is an open source business, so it will be interesting to see who fills this void.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/C...ow/4595554.cms

Thus, over the years, drug enforcement agencies in Mumbai have arrested several Sri Lankan Tamils, and charged them with smuggling narcotics. "The accused were found to be highly motivated. They were taking the risk not just for the money, but because they believed in the LTTE's cause,'' said a public prosecutor. "The LTTE started using the revenue from narcotics to finance its armed struggle ever since the conflict started in 1983,'' said intelligence expert B Raman. However, the LTTE's role in the narcotics business was different from other international gangs such as the `D' Company, which indulges in direct selling of drugs.

Prof G H Peiris, a Sri Lankan security expert who writes for the US magazine ‘Jane's Defence Weekly', believes that the LTTE's involvement in the international drug trade was largely in the form of bulk delivery of heroin and cannabis from producing areas in Asia to consuming countries. He said that there did not appear to be any extensive involvement of the LTTE in drug ‘peddling' in the retail market or participation in opium growing and refining of heroin.

Posted by tequila,

Unfortunately I think the U.S. has little leverage over Sri Lanka at the moment, which is probably much more interested in embracing the PRC, especially given the Rajapaksa brothers' personal interest such relations. The Sri Lankan media is naturally full of denunciations of the West in general for seeking to investigate human rights violations and hinder military action, which in their view did nothing but protect the Tigers.

Yep, and if you look at the LTTE websites they have links to all the articles where prominent politicians and human rights groups are calling war crime investigations. Of course you have to wonder to what end? In my opinion the character of the war has changed from a shooting war to lawfare.

Posted by Bob's World,

My assessment would be that the LTTE made a major strategic error in transitioning to phase III operations too soon and attempting to fight this as more of a civil war than as an insurgency. Essentially setting up the "weak state vs strong state" scenario which rarely ends well for the weaker.

I don't think they transitioned too soon, as this strategy worked very well for them. Remember this war has been ongoing for over 30 years, and over that time the LTTE built up a powerful para-military and military force, so they could take and hold terrain. Since Sri Lanka is an island nation, they couldn't establish needed safehavens across the border, and they needed their safehavens to facilitate recruiting, training, planning, business, practice governance, etc. It is important to note that while they didn't have a safehaven for their military, the LTTE did establish a very large and politically active global diaspora. This is now the fighting wing for the current lawfare taking place IMO.

The LTTE's biggest mistake was their failure to recognize the transformation that took place in the Sri Lanka government and military. The military was better trained, larger, better equipped, and most importantly had a political mandate to destory the LTTE. The LTTE probably should have given up land and dispersed and started over with low level insurgency and terrorist acts, but obviously that is a hard pill for anyone to swallow. Seems like that decision hits all three factors: interests (safehaven, psychological victory, etc.), pride (fight until the last man), and fear (what happens if we give up our hard earned territory?). The LTTE strategy seemed to be, survive long enough to get the the international community to intervene in their behalf, but obviously that didn't happen. Like many defeated armies they were stuck in yesterday's strategy.

Civil war versus insurgency is somewhat loaded, but in general (begining with our civil war) one side isn't interested in overhrowing the established government, but rather succeeding from the establishment. The LTTE didn't want to overthrow the government in Colombo, they wanted to establish their own homeland. It would have been a different fight altogether if they wanted to overthrow the government and establish controll over the entire nation. One that they couldn't have won.

[slapout9]

Bill you seen this? Is it accurate?


http://therealnews.com/t/

[Bill Moore]

It was a tough slog, and there were several civilian casualties, I don't think anyone really knows what the real numbers and I suspect (but do not know) that 20k civilians killed is greatly exagerated.

I don't think anyone will argue that civilians suffered terribly, but then again this is a war among the people, and there were at least two sides to this conflict and the LTTE reportedly held several thousand civilians hostage for protection. Holding their own people (Tamils) hostage in an effort to create a disaster to get the international community to intervene on the LTTE's behalf. No one should underestimate the ruthlessness of the LTTE leadership. The world didn't intervene because the LTTE are noted terrorists who have killed hundreds of innocent civilians and the world is tired of terrorists.

Slap, the short answer is I don't know, but I do know there are at least two sides to this story. I also know there is no such thing as humane war, perhaps the most humane act is to take the necessary actions to bring the conflict to an end?

[slapout9]

I also know there is no such thing as humane war, perhaps the most humane act is to take the necessary actions to bring the conflict to an end?

You want to know who also told me that.....Air Force guy...retired Colonel.....intials are JW....writes a lot about Rings

[jmm99]

from Bill
In my opinion the character of the war has changed from a shooting war to lawfare.

Interesting that you'd say this - and put it in bold.

Just quick now went through the countries not appearing on list of those who have ratified 1977 Additional Protocals I & II to the GCs. I didn't find: India, Burma, Malaysia, Indonesia and Sri Lanka. Thus, a greater freedom of action since those protocals were set up to give insurgents an edge - an example of Lawfare waged with long-term goals in mind.

What think thou of a Lawfare thread and where ?

-------------------------------
Also interesting is this:

from S2MSSI linked article
The lesson of nonstop, no-holds-barred combat -- the army even powered on during monsoons -- was complemented by better use of small, flexible "deep penetration" special forces units, many trained by their U.S. and Indian counterparts. Dressed like the rebels, they went behind enemy lines, assassinating Tigers, crippling infrastructure in rebel-held areas and reporting target locations to the army and air force.

as to which, see this thread for some legal on "pseudo-gangs".

[Bill Moore]

What think thou of a Lawfare thread and where ?

I would love to see one, probably under Small Wars Participants (military-other) or under Global and General (international politics), but you sir are the expert in this area, I'll gravitate to where ever you post.

[CWOT]

Thanks to those contributing to this thread. I have been doing some research on COIN in different conflicts, trying to evaluate what works the best. I started looking at Sri Lanka as I heard from several friends, "you should look at Sri Lanka, they defeated the LTTE!" And I like this case since it's not tied to the religious issues of AQ and the Middle East.

However, it seems from the sources, Sri Lanka really used a conventional military onslaught to defeat the LTTE.

Does anyone have any insight into what COIN techniques they tried to defeat LTTE? Did they do any of the COIN techniques that are documented in the COIN field manual?
Did they create militias, paramilitaries?
Have amnesty programs?
Increase intelligence?
I'm finding a lot of discussion about the LTTE, it's capabilities, etc, but very little about how the Sri Lankan's did COIN. Maybe they didn't?

Thanks for any suggestions you all might have.