COIN case: LRA Lords Resistance Army

[carl]

You can find the last ICG report on LRA there: http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/region...-end-game.aspx

M-A: I read this report last week and it seemed to conclude that the hunt for the LRA has slowed because Uganda, South Sudan, Congo and the CAR are just not that interested anymore. There is no real political payoff in getting the LRA. The only people hurt are locals in out of the way areas and nobody cares much about them. That seemed to be the situation the report concluded.

My question is this, will the US effort actually motivate those four countries or will they just string us along as long as possible until the money stops? One reason I ask this may be is that on another site a guy insisted that the LRA was still active in Uganda. He said he was there recently in an official capacity and that is what the Ugandan army told him. That is contrary to everything I've read over the past few years so I wondered if the Ugandans told him that so more of the money would be spent in Uganda rather than where the LRA actually is.

In other words, do think we are going to be had in this deal?

[M-A Lagrange]

Hello Carl and David,

Sorry I did not see your questions before, was little busy.

Carl,
I would say that I am extremely cautious about LRA presence in Uganda. I am even more cautious if the intel is coming from the Ugandan Army. My personal opinion on that is that Uganda is worried about the oil fields in the western part of the country. DRC elections have already triggered some reactions from ADF and Mayi-Mayi near Beni and Museveny is worried about how far this could go. Also South Sudan mess is to be watched and is a good justification to serve the old LRA threat story.

David,
Let’s be clear: LRA is not a priority for any of the government involved. LRA are killing people and not threatening economical interest… Therefore the LRA hunt will goes on until an unlucky guy catches Khony…
Basically catching Khony would be a financial loss for Uganda. Catching Khony will take time, basically my bet is is that it will take as long as US are willing to fund that “adventure”. But delaying it is a mistake according to me as it will allow LRA to regain a territory and therefore a real problem. I do not think that keeping LRA at non vital threat level is a good option. But, as said previously in the post, keeping LRA active is usefull for Kampala.

[carl]

Here is link that goes to the LRA Crisis Tracker 2011 report.

http://www.lracrisistracker.com/medi...ity-brief-2011

LRA activities are down, especially recently, thank God.

They say their reporting is much better as of late because of distribution of HF radios to towns and villages in the threatened areas.

[M-A Lagrange]

ESO Hunts Ugandan Rebels In Diaspora
Uganda’s External Security Organisation (ESO) has started the hunt for suspected combatants and sponsors of exiled rebel group Uganda People's Front/Uganda People's Army (UPF/UPA), Chimpreports.com can reveal.
The hunt was launched following the recent arrest of former US marine-turned fugitive Nix Bongomin in Northern Uganda where he was recruiting rebels to overthrow the government of President Yoweri Museveni.
...
The trio has reportedly been active UPF members, a rebel group which had started putting in place bases in Western Uganda in 2008.

http://www.chimpreports.com/index.ph...-diaspora.html

As long as some one is hunting Kony for real… All the rest of US and Uganda services can chase wild goose in the dark...

[M-A Lagrange]

As AFRICOM is communicating its difficulties in hunting down Kony but also highlight the supposed effect of this hunt on LRA activity capacities:

US Defends Ongoing LRA Mission Amid Criticism
The top U.S. special operations commander for Africa, Brian Losey, said U.S. officials are already seeing a decrease of what he calls the “lethality of LRA activities.”
At a recent event in Washington, top State Department official Karl Wycoff echoed those remarks.
“In the last several months, scores of people have defected, escaped or been released from the LRA’s ranks. This is a welcome development,” said Wycoff.
Wycoff also made clear why President Barack Obama decided last year to send about 100 U.S. troops to help African countries battle the LRA.
“It is intrinsically an organization that needs to be removed, eliminated, reduced, so that it is no longer a threat to regional security and human security,” said Wycoff.

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/...140395413.html

Critics of UPDF are rising from all over:

Uganda: UPDF in Kony Hunt Accused of Rape, Looting
A new report accuses UPDF of massive plunder of resources like diamonds and timber in the tiny and war-wracked Central African Republic (CAR) where the army is pursuing bands of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA).
The dossier, titled 'The Lord's Resistance Army in the Central African Republic' and authored by the New York-based Social Science Research Council (SSRC) in December 2011, alleges that some Ugandan soldiers operated a prostitution ring, raped and infected Congolese refugee girls in CAR, with the deadly HIV.
However, army spokesman Col Felix Kulayigye, on Thursday described the report as the usual banter from self-seeking organisations attempting to account for money from donors.
"That report is unfortunate. It's from masqueraders who are trying to earn bread from our blood and sweat. The UPDF is one of the most disciplined forces in Africa and we are pro-people. Anyone can check our record", Kulayigye said.
In November 2011, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group also accused the UPDF of plundering timber, gold and diamond not only in CAR but also in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

http://www.observer.ug/index.php?opt...ies&Itemid=116
(I highly recommend to read the whole article)

And here is a link to a short video to remind us why and how US are involved.
STOP KONY:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4MnpzG5Sqc

[carl]

That video on the LRA has had over 11 million, that's million, hits in just the last few days I believe. My 14 year old nephew heard about it on Facebook and now is interested.

It is quite a phenomena. It is good if it helps thing along but it disturbs me a little. The attitude of the video is something along the lines that this has gone on long enough and we are going to do something about it now. And what they are going to do is wear bracelets and go viral and speak out without fear. The object of all that is to make "them" get Kony this year. It seems like the makers of the video are as interested in patting themselves on the back as doing something about Kony.

It is an interesting happening.

[Dayuhan]

It seems like the makers of the video are as interested in patting themselves on the back as doing something about Kony.

The makers of the video are of course not in a position to do something about Kony... drawing attention and building awareness is all they can do. If that involves a bit of patting themselves, so it goes... human nature.

One wonders, though, if they realize what's likely to be involved in getting Kony. If it were all that easy it would have been done already.