COIN case: LRA Lords Resistance Army

**carl** · 10-24-2009

We have a lot of Ugandan guards here and i like to ask them about the LRA. One told me tonight that the UPDF has people continuously in the DRC, South Sudan and CAR gathering intel on the LRA. When they get a good location, UPDF forces are dispatched as a strike force to hit them. The biggest problem is, the guard says, that there are people in the UPDF who tip off the LRA because of tribal sympathies. The LRA is so foot mobile that they don't need much of a warning to be well out of the area when the strike force hits.

If true, I infer that UPDF units are not continuously on the trail of LRA groups. This is disappointing to me. I don't see how any info can stay good long enough to get a strike force there in time, especially given how fast the LRA can move. I was also surprised that tribal loyalty could play a part in this.

I don't know how much if any the guard said was true but that is what he told me.

**Michael F** · 11-03-2009

Originally Posted by carl

.... The biggest problem is, the guard says, that there are people in the UPDF who tip off the LRA because of tribal sympathies. The LRA is so foot mobile that they don't need much of a warning to be well out of the area when the strike force hits.

If true, I infer that UPDF units are not continuously on the trail of LRA groups. This is disappointing to me. I don't see how any info can stay good long enough to get a strike force there in time, especially given how fast the LRA can move. I was also surprised that tribal loyalty could play a part in this.

I don't know how much if any the guard said was true but that is what he told me.

This would be surprising to me.

Just imagine the UPDF is tipped off about the position of a group...
Where does this kind of info comes from ? Informants inside the LRA...doubtfull (because of Kony's paranoia), Witnesses...doubtfull as there is no communication network that would allow the info to be passed in a matter of a few minutes to the UPDF (CAR, GARAMBA and Southern Sudan are not "communication and IT" areas). Even so, it would take a 1 to 2 hours to move a UPDF strike force (even with their very few helicopters).
I guess INT collection is mostly done by tracking and scouting on the ground.
The same UPDF small units does both the INT collection and the strike action before the opportunity vanishes, i guess.

About sources inside the UPDF, it seems dubious. First, as explained above, with small search & destroy UPDF squads, the LRA can not have an informant in each one. Second, these sources would have little time to inform the LRA.

I do believe that exLRA troops are involved in the hunt against the LRA (In UPDF's 105th Bn). These know the LRA tactics, habits, acholli languageand the terrain better than most UPDF troops. They are perfect to track down their former kidnappers and most probably would not cooperate with them at all cost...but the very existence of this unit makes it an easy scapegoat if operations fails...("there was an acholli mole").

Only guessing...

**M-A Lagrange** · 11-04-2009

There are several problematics in the LRA hunt.
The first one is the leakage of information. One of the parameters is that Kampala is not really playing "franc jeux". Kampala does have many interests in keeping the LRA as an active threat in DRC and in South Sudan. Does not mean they do it but this could be affecting their motivation. Also, if DRC is a chaotic failed state, South Sudan is a unborn dead body. So keeping the LRA active gives a good reason to Kampala to deploy troops up to CAR. I would call that the Rwandan strategy.
The second thing is that LRA released an important number of former members. When they are not integrated into UPDF, they are sent back home or to the refugees camps in South Sudan by the UN. They receive no psychological support, no reintegration programs… Even UPDF is complaining about UNICEF Sh@@ty work.
As former LRA members cannot reintegrate, they replicate what Kony taught them for a living.

Hope this helps to understand the mess.

**davidbfpo** · 11-05-2009

Hurrah!

Senior Lord's Resistance Army commander Charles Arop, who was implicated in leading a massacre on Christmas Day that killed at least 143 Congolese, has surrendered to the Ugandan military, the army spokesman told AFP on Thursday.

"He was only left with one fighter so what choice did he have?" Lieutenant-Colonel Felix Kulayigye said, adding that Arop surrendered on Tuesday to Ugandan forces stationed in the northeast of the Democractic Republic of Congo.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091105...gorebelsunrest

davidbfpo