COIN case: LRA Lords Resistance Army

[Michael F]

Might sound crazy (600 miles from Uganda) but the guy is and :
* It's safe of SPLA, CAR, FARDC, UPDF forces (and US allies),
* The NCP is present in Southern Darfur and can provide a secure environement,
* The LRA forces may stay spread between Western Bahr El Ghazal, CAR and DRC (300 miles) while Kony is safe north in Darfur.
* There is little chance the NCP will hand Kony over to anyone.
* UNAMIS and UNAMID are not present in those regions.


LRA moving north - S. Sudan army official
Friday 18 September 2009 05:00. Printer-Friendly version Comments...

By Manyang Mayom
September 17, 2009 (JUBA) – Southern Sudan Military Intelligence have determined that the Lord’s Resistance Army leader is moving toward Chad, according to the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) Spokesperson Major General Kuol Diem Kuol. He further affirmed that the LRA has now become powerless.

LRA troops march towards an the assembly point in Owiny Ki Bul, 160km (100 miles) south of Juba, Sudan September 20, 2006 (Reuters)
Maj. Gen. Kuol announced this on Wednesday night, claiming that Joseph Kony and his deputy are moving toward Darfur and that an attack is expected in Western Bahr El Ghazal.
Over 80,000 people have fled from their homes in Western Equatoria and Central Equatoria this year, according to a report released this month by the World Health Organization. The LRA guerrillas are implicated in a recent wave of massacres and killings in DRC, Sudan and CAR, with upwards of 1,000 killed since December 2008.
Ugandan army forces are pursuing LRA in the Central African Republic, according to recent media reports.
Kuol noted that particularly in Tumburia County of Western Equatoria on September 11, 2009, SPLA military intelligence found fresh footprints of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) from Central African Republic heading toward Raja County of Western Bahr-El-Ghazal state. "According to the intelligence we have, LRA leader Joseph Kony and his deputy Okot Ozimo, they are heading toward Darfur; some of his forces will remain in DRC and some of the troops’ lives have become difficult for Kony to operate in Southern Sudan."
He went on to insinuate that paramilitary forces aligned with the Government of Sudan would orchestrate a military action or threat that would allow Kony to escape: "For Mr. Kony to move away from South Sudan, the National Congress Party (NCP) in Darfur are now threatening our forces in the North of Raja County in such a places like Timza, Karita, and Kitkit … – there is a big threat that Murahileen militias are threatening our forces of SPLA and the objective of NCP behind this threat is to let Joseph Kony with his deputy move freely to reach Darfur and then to Chad without facing a military offensive."
"All our forces in Raja area… are now put on maximum alert," affirmed Kuol. "I want to make use of your Sudan Tribune media to inform our civilians not to be surprised by this notorious LRA attack," he concluded.

[M-A Lagrange]

As far as I know, this is not confirmed.
Does not mean it is false.
But what about what is going on in DRC?

[M-A Lagrange]

Ugandan rebels have reportedly killed about two dozen villagers in an attack in the Democratic Republic of Congo's troubled northeast Orientale Province.
On Tuesday, the AFP news agency quoted a local association as saying that the deadly attack was carried out on September 25th in an area where no Congolese military force is present. "The inhabitants were surprised in the morning by about 40 members of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) from neighboring Uganda. Twenty-two people were killed with machetes and knives," said the chairman of the Dungu Diocesan Justice and Peace Commission, Father Benoit Kilalegu.
http://www.indymedia-letzebuerg.net/...2155&Itemid=28

Khony is may be no more in South Sudan but they’re still killing…

[M-A Lagrange]

I found that on the net. The figures are quiete impressive but could be real. Does someone have more details on it?

On 6 October, Uganda's Daily Monitor quoted Congolese officials reporting that some 3000 LRA soldiers, wearing new uniforms and carrying new weapons, have crossed from CAR into northern Congo and are now advancing towards Sudan. Father Benoit Kilalegu reported from Congo that the LRA attacked Digba on 25 September, killing 22 people with machetes.

http://www.assistnews.net/Stories/2009/s09100045.htm

I know Uganda's Daily monitor is not the best source and FARDC even worst. And the net source... But still, even 10 times less would be a major pb.

[Michael F]

http://petereichstaedt.blogspot.com/

After predicting more than a year ago that the now rebels-for-hire of the Lord's Resistance Army, led by their maniacal leader, Joseph Kony, eventually could be used against Darfur rebels, it appears to be coming a reality.

In a story published this Saturday in The Independent, and featuring the above photo by Reuters, Africa Correspondent Daniel Howden quotes a South Sudan military man as saying that LRA has entered South Darfur.

We have confirmed that the LRA are there and they have clashed with the local population

said Major-General Kuol Deim Kuol.

South Sudanese officials are prone to saying such things based on extremely flimsy evidence. They eagerly make statements that call attention to the nefarious and always duplicitous dealings of the Sudan government in Khartoum.

That said, South Sudan knows what it's talking about since the south battled Sudan for more than 20 years. They know well that Sudan loves to use proxy militias, such as the janjaweed, to fight its bloody battles against defenseless civilian populations.

The LRA fits the Sudan ideal since it specializes in attacking, mutilating, raping and destroying the softest of civilian targets, just as it has done for 20 years in northern Uganda and for the past three years in northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, two of which were during the farcical peace talks in with Uganda, held in Juba, South Sudan.

While I remain skeptical that the LRA will be actively involved in what remains of the war in Darfur, I think the LRA is being positioned for that possibility by the Sudan government, which may again be arming and supplying the LRA.

The region south and west of Nyala, south Darfur's largest town, and extending into southeastern Chad, has been the province of Darfur rebel groups such as the Justice and Equality Movement. The JEM remains a strong threat to the Sudan government, having conducted the wild raid on Omdurman in February 2008, an attack that shocked Khartoum and revealed its glaring vulnerabilities.

With Kony's militia-for-hire in the area, Sudan has a perfect foil to conduct attacks on civilian targets in south Darfur and southeastern Chad, which is where Darfur rebels have found refuge for regrouping and resupply.

This will allow Sudan to tell the world that the war in Darfur is over, when in truth it is not.

My stronger sense is that Kony's move into the Darfur region is more for him to obtain the weaponry and supplies he will need for Sudan's likely efforts to disrupt the coming elections in South Sudan in 2010.

This will be a prelude to what could be an all-out civil war with horrendous civilian casualties as South Sudan moves to its independence vote in 2011, as called for in Sudan's 2005 peace agreement.

Sudan has used the LRA like this before, having given the LRA aid and comfort in South Sudan during the long 20-year war with Uganda. Sudan used the LRA also to fight south Sudan's army, which to the delight of Khartoum, made the region a veritable hell-on-earth where four armies fought: the LRA, the Ugandan army, the Sudan army and the South Sudan army.

Likewise, a consensus is growing that the recent fighting in the eastern South Sudan province of Jonglei is much more than bloody ethnic clashes over cows that it is portrayed to be. Rather, it is part of a calculated effort by the Sudan government to destabilize the region and prevent the development of the region's oil, which South Sudan needs desperately.

While this is speculative, it is based on well-established patterns by Sudan and the horrific history of the LRA. One can only hope that people like the U.S.'s envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, is cognizant of all of this as he flies around the world trying to negotiate a "deal" with Sudan.

The sad reality is that while the world knows all too well the death and destruction that follows that LRA wherever it goes, nothing is being done about the LRA other than a lot of deep sighing and muttering.

As the numbers of dead and mutilated and raped continue to grow and as the LRA continues to grow increasingly malignant, those among the international community, such as the Dutch, the Danes, Scandinavians, and others who supplied the LRA from 2006 to 2008, saying that it was necessary for peace, should think again about the blood of innocent people that now covers their hands.

[M-A Lagrange]

Sorry, I did a bad manip. Was looking at something else. Can someone erase the previous post?
Thanks.

Concerning LRA: DRC is facing now a problem of copycat from LRA. This shows how bad this country has fallen down. People are crazy enought to use the LRA M.O.

Also, the Human Rights special envoy in DRC relieased a report (the one I cannot find and wanted to attach) which points out the incapacity of MONUC to do its job. As an example he points out that reports on Human Rights abuse by LRA from Feb/March 2008 are still not available.

Reality, harsh reality...

[carl]

I have two questions.

The first is, has anyone heard more about the UPDF ops against the LRA in the CAR?

Second, if the LRA is or will be in Darfur, how will the terrain there affect their operations and effectiveness? I have to read more but I am under the impression the LRA does most everything afoot. In that part of the world, everything seems to be done mounted, either on a Toyota or a horse.