The Islamic Revolution took years to build up to the point of ousting the Shah. While I don't think it will take the 20+ years before something happens, it will probably take some more time. I want to wait and see what happens around that day and then I'll revise. Until then, I'm cautiously optimistic and here's why.

1. My sources on the ground who were alive during the Islamic Revolution say there is a similar electricity in the air. More graffiti opposing the Supreme Leader has been appearing as of late. Considering not too long ago that would be unthinkable, I'd say a significant paradigm shift has happened.

2. The administration admitted abuses were going on and closed Kahrizak. When this happened it shattered a whole lot of myths in the process. The notion that an Islamic Republic is some how immune to such abuses because each servant to the State would be the most pious was a big one. The Shah's forces committed similar abuses prior to be ousted and it's one of the angles the opposition, especially the Islamic ones, ran with to bolster popular support. The fact that an 'Islamic' government is resorting to the same tactics as the 'Atheists' pissed a lot of people off.

3. People are dying at each protest. Unfortunate, yes, but they become icons for the opposition. The administration is either refusing proper Islamic burial, moving bodies around, or desecrating graves. Such practices are patently un-Islamic, and the Opposition knows it. People who were on the fence during the election are annoyed with how the administration has handled everything. Personally, I can't wait to see what happens June 20 when Neda's one year anniversary rolls around.

4. This has lasted longer than the summer and shows no signs of slowing down.

5. The government can turn off the net and cell phones all it wants, they usually don't do it fast enough to stop information being spread or people gathering. Even if they do turn all of it off all the time, the information will spread the good old fashioned way.