Observing Iran (catch all historical thread)

[Ken White]

When I was there, I never ceased hearing from them how evil the British and the Russians (in that order) were. Yet, they did tons of business with the Russians and I noticed there were far more British expatriates than Americans working in Iran at the time. We have now replaced the British and the Russians as the great evil but given the Iranian ability at haggling and the personality conflicts of Persian Empire(s) and self deprecation, I suspect that the dislike that best serves will be that voiced. I also suspect they could and would throw in the Germans, the French, the Canadians (for their wireless technology) and / or the Bahamas if that suited...

and San Marino...

[bourbon]

Yes ladies and gentlemen, the Brits are to blame

Blaming the Brits seems to be a national pastime in Iran.

[George L. Singleton]

This time the young population of all of Iran is adamant about a new election, which they will somehow wrangle...my best guess.

A computer analysis by a London think thank this weekend of two major voting block provinces within Iran have more than 100% of eligible voters voting in this recent election.

Why am I not surprised?

I look for more violence, then for the splits in the government and in the religious hierachy to become "sharp and absolute" and at last the police and the regular military to switchsides, but the Revolutionary Guard may hand in there a while longer for the crooks benefit.

[Bob's World]

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Technol...147/story.html

As the Iranian government is faced with a growing insurgency, it is critical that they implement an effective COIN campaign immediately to restore order to the populace. This article about a Canadian firm that is using new technology to override efforts of the Iranian government to control information/communication access to the populace as a tried and true COIN TTP highlights a key theory of mine.

I contend that the only thing truly new in the world today is the speed and availablity of information, and that while this does not change the nature of warfare (hybrid, IW, global insurgency, etc) it does render obsolete many of the TTPs that have been developed for relatively successful COIN campaigns in the past.

As the government can no longer control information, I contend that the government must actually work much more diligently to identify and address the causation of the insurgency as well as the motivation triggering the current events.

Clearly the Iranians have the ability to simply crush the rebellion physically; or to take out Mousavi and attempt to quell the demonstrations; but while such actions may produce temporary success, they would likely only serve to exacerbate the true underlying causation of unrest.

I would recommend to the Iranian leadership to call for some trusted third-party organization to come in and oversee a re-count at a minimum, or an entire new election. This would address "motivation," but also show good faith in addressing "causation." I would advise them to pubicly announce a commitment to governmental review and reform under whomever is declared the ultimate winner, and to then follow-through on that promise.

Will they do this? I doubt it. Therefore a great strategem for the west would be to offer to provide such an unbiased third-party, subject to approval and acceptance by the government of Iran to serve this function.

If they say no, they look even worse to their own populace and grow even more vulnerable to popular change (without some commitment of western support to back the rebellion).

If they say yes, then that is good too; as at the end of the day we merely want to enable a peaceful evolution toward a better relationship between the government and the populace of Iran; and therefore form a better relationship with both as well.

[Steve Blair]

When I was there, I never ceased hearing from them how evil the British and the Russians (in that order) were. Yet, they did tons of business with the Russians and I noticed there were far more British expatriates than Americans working in Iran at the time. We have now replaced the British and the Russians as the great evil but given the Iranian ability at haggling and the personality conflicts of Persian Empire(s) and self deprecation, I suspect that the dislike that best serves will be that voiced. I also suspect they could and would throw in the Germans, the French, the Canadians (for their wireless technology) and / or the Bahamas if that suited...

and San Marino...

But...but...what about Andorra? I hear they're the root of all eevviilll these days....

[davidbfpo]

Perhaps in response to the Iranian claims, Boris Johnson, London's Mayor, has in his usual style penned a response: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/c...d-Britain.html

davidbfpo

[Surferbeetle]

...should be nearby and at the ready when reading Spengler of Asia Times, but his latest is interesting nonetheless:

By assigning 64% of the popular vote to incumbent President Mahmud Ahmadinejad in last weekend's elections, Iran's reigning mullahs, if there was indeed rigging, made a statement - but to whom? The trumpet which dare not sound an uncertain note was a call to Tehran's Shi'ite constituency, as well as to a fifth of Pakistani Muslims. Religious establishments by their nature are conservative, and they engage in radical acts only in need.

Tehran is tugged forward by the puppies of war: Hezbollah in Lebanon and its co-sectarians in Pakistan. With a population of 170 million, Pakistan has 20 million men of military age, as many as Iran and Turkey combined; by 2035 it will have half again as many. It also has nuclear weapons. And it is in danger of disintegration.

[Cavguy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/20..._clashes.shtml

Iranian riot police run away from protesters in the above BBC video (@ 2:20). Pretty amazing.

[Blackjack]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/20..._clashes.shtml

Iranian riot police run away from protesters in the above BBC video (@ 2:20). Pretty amazing.

That is rather incredible Cavguy, they got rushed really fast. A human wave tactic to say the least. The only way they could take down that crowd form the grounds is with a few of the R2-D2s with 20mm guns, well that or cluster bombs.

[Schmedlap]

Uskowi on Iran is a good source. Pretty objective analysis from a guy who works as an Iran analyst. Speaks Farsi - I think he may be a native speaker. He's on the SWJ blogroll and has the SWJ blog on his blogroll.

Just a few thoughts - I think one cause of the youth frustration is that the ruling elite are hopelessly corrupt, but they cover up their activity under the guise of religion. They don't buy the religious authority of the mullahs. They see the mix of politics and religion as nothing buy hypocrisy. Even if the protesters succeed in whatever they're attempting to achieve, if anything, I don't know if this has the potential to translate into something the improves the situation or if it just results in another form of unstable government. I'm not so sure that this is a democracy movement, so much as a "cut the crap" movement.

[davidbfpo]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/20..._clashes.shtml Iranian riot police run away from protesters in the above BBC video (@ 2:20). Pretty amazing.

Cav Guy,

I too watched the clip and noted: that the police only threw stones at the protestors, never had formed lines (OK very limited view) and no rubber or plastic bullets to keep the crowd at a distance. No vehicles, although a line can be seen behind them parked kerbside. Let alone tear gas, which has been used elsewhere.

Riot police sometimes have to retire, even runaway and few I suspect have not.

The other significant aspect to the clip was the crowd's size, mainly if not all males and that only some appeared to be throwing stones. Even the advance was very reluctant, but mobs have their own character.

What would be interesting is whether the scene was in a middle class area or a working class area. I am mindful of the focus on Tinamen Square footage, when the worst scenes were in the working class districts.

From a faraway armchair viewpoint.

davidbfpo

[jmm99]

re: their man in Beirut - punch this.

[bourbon]

re: their man in Beirut - punch this.

You would think Jeff Stein would have a subject for his next blog post from this:

Retired Adm. Lyons maintained that he could have destroyed the terrorists at a hideout U.S. intelligence had pinpointed, but he was outmaneuvered by others in the cabinet of President Ronald Reagan.

"I was going to take them apart," Lyons said, "but the secretary of defense," Caspar Weinberger, "sabotaged it."

[davidbfpo]

Worth a quick read, no idea how valid the comments are, but website is great: http://www.jihadica.com/ (currently first item).

davidbfpo

[marct]

Proving once again that there is an international language, here is some commentary from Al-Hayat Al-Jadida on the recent elections.




Once again, a big "Thank You" to MEMRI.

[Charles Martel]

PJMedia is reporting that a letter of support for the protesters signed by Commanders in the Iranian Army. The text of the report can be found at: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/military-mutiny-in-iran/

If this is true, it would explain why the QF and IRGC have been gaining influence and the Regular Army (and, I would say, Regular Navy) increasingly seem to be sidelined.

Even if the current regime in Tehran is overthrown, the opposition leaders are only slightly less radical, but it may open up some opportunity for a realistic rapprochement with the West.

[Dayuhan]

Any independent confirmation that this letter exists? Google News turns up nothing, and it would be news; one would expect it to be discussed.

[Charles Martel]

Absolutely agree. We'll see if other sources confirm.

[Dayuhan]

I noted the opening sentence:

Leading commentators and diplomats have been pondering for quite some time why the Iranian leader is not prepared to act against the revolution in a major way.

The reference to "the revolution" seemed a bit unrealistic, and I thought for a moment that the writer might be channeling Michael Ledeen.

[Tukhachevskii]

Although the Iranian Army largely paved the way for Khomeini and the "Revolution" when they "stood aside" and "recommended" that the Shah leave for "health reasons" the Iranian Army has always been rather lukewarm towards the Ayatollahs; Hence the establishment of the IRGC in the first instance. The fact that the Iranian Army is now tacitly supporting what the Western media rather fllipantly call a "revolutionary" movement elides the fact that they were also largely supportive (if not en bloc) during the tenure of Khatami and the 17th Khordad reform movement of which, and this should be remembered, the current events is an offshoot. Many of Khatami's alter kampfer (and even Rafsanjani's family) are associated with the current events. The Army, however, would never challenge the rule of the Faqih but would, as before, more than likely simply stand aside especially given the existence of the highly motivated IRGC and their adjunct, the Basij militia (a factor they didn't have to take into consideration before).