Page 12 of 13 FirstFirst ... 210111213 LastLast
Results 221 to 240 of 257

Thread: Observing Iran (catch all historical thread)

  1. #221
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    8,060

    Default The Iraniha have a love-hate realtionship with many nations.

    When I was there, I never ceased hearing from them how evil the British and the Russians (in that order) were. Yet, they did tons of business with the Russians and I noticed there were far more British expatriates than Americans working in Iran at the time. We have now replaced the British and the Russians as the great evil but given the Iranian ability at haggling and the personality conflicts of Persian Empire(s) and self deprecation, I suspect that the dislike that best serves will be that voiced. I also suspect they could and would throw in the Germans, the French, the Canadians (for their wireless technology) and / or the Bahamas if that suited...

    and San Marino...

  2. #222
    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Posts
    903

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Odom View Post
    Yes ladies and gentlemen, the Brits are to blame
    Blaming the Brits seems to be a national pastime in Iran.

  3. #223
    Former Member George L. Singleton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    South of Mason Dixon Line
    Posts
    497

    Default The blame game won't work this time

    This time the young population of all of Iran is adamant about a new election, which they will somehow wrangle...my best guess.

    A computer analysis by a London think thank this weekend of two major voting block provinces within Iran have more than 100% of eligible voters voting in this recent election.

    Why am I not surprised?

    I look for more violence, then for the splits in the government and in the religious hierachy to become "sharp and absolute" and at last the police and the regular military to switchsides, but the Revolutionary Guard may hand in there a while longer for the crooks benefit.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-22-2009 at 11:46 AM. Reason: Replace Republican with Revolutionary.

  4. #224
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    2,706

    Default

    http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Technol...147/story.html

    As the Iranian government is faced with a growing insurgency, it is critical that they implement an effective COIN campaign immediately to restore order to the populace. This article about a Canadian firm that is using new technology to override efforts of the Iranian government to control information/communication access to the populace as a tried and true COIN TTP highlights a key theory of mine.

    I contend that the only thing truly new in the world today is the speed and availablity of information, and that while this does not change the nature of warfare (hybrid, IW, global insurgency, etc) it does render obsolete many of the TTPs that have been developed for relatively successful COIN campaigns in the past.

    As the government can no longer control information, I contend that the government must actually work much more diligently to identify and address the causation of the insurgency as well as the motivation triggering the current events.

    Clearly the Iranians have the ability to simply crush the rebellion physically; or to take out Mousavi and attempt to quell the demonstrations; but while such actions may produce temporary success, they would likely only serve to exacerbate the true underlying causation of unrest.

    I would recommend to the Iranian leadership to call for some trusted third-party organization to come in and oversee a re-count at a minimum, or an entire new election. This would address "motivation," but also show good faith in addressing "causation." I would advise them to pubicly announce a commitment to governmental review and reform under whomever is declared the ultimate winner, and to then follow-through on that promise.

    Will they do this? I doubt it. Therefore a great strategem for the west would be to offer to provide such an unbiased third-party, subject to approval and acceptance by the government of Iran to serve this function.

    If they say no, they look even worse to their own populace and grow even more vulnerable to popular change (without some commitment of western support to back the rebellion).

    If they say yes, then that is good too; as at the end of the day we merely want to enable a peaceful evolution toward a better relationship between the government and the populace of Iran; and therefore form a better relationship with both as well.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  5. #225
    Moderator Steve Blair's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Montana
    Posts
    3,195

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    When I was there, I never ceased hearing from them how evil the British and the Russians (in that order) were. Yet, they did tons of business with the Russians and I noticed there were far more British expatriates than Americans working in Iran at the time. We have now replaced the British and the Russians as the great evil but given the Iranian ability at haggling and the personality conflicts of Persian Empire(s) and self deprecation, I suspect that the dislike that best serves will be that voiced. I also suspect they could and would throw in the Germans, the French, the Canadians (for their wireless technology) and / or the Bahamas if that suited...

    and San Marino...
    But...but...what about Andorra? I hear they're the root of all eevviilll these days....
    "On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
    T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War

  6. #226
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,346

    Default Boris on Iran

    Perhaps in response to the Iranian claims, Boris Johnson, London's Mayor, has in his usual style penned a response: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/c...d-Britain.html

    davidbfpo

  7. #227
    Council Member Surferbeetle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    1,111

    Default Large grains of salt...

    ...should be nearby and at the ready when reading Spengler of Asia Times, but his latest is interesting nonetheless:

    By assigning 64% of the popular vote to incumbent President Mahmud Ahmadinejad in last weekend's elections, Iran's reigning mullahs, if there was indeed rigging, made a statement - but to whom? The trumpet which dare not sound an uncertain note was a call to Tehran's Shi'ite constituency, as well as to a fifth of Pakistani Muslims. Religious establishments by their nature are conservative, and they engage in radical acts only in need.

    Tehran is tugged forward by the puppies of war: Hezbollah in Lebanon and its co-sectarians in Pakistan. With a population of 170 million, Pakistan has 20 million men of military age, as many as Iran and Turkey combined; by 2035 it will have half again as many. It also has nuclear weapons. And it is in danger of disintegration.
    Last edited by Surferbeetle; 06-23-2009 at 02:18 AM.
    Sapere Aude

  8. #228
    Council Member Cavguy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Honolulu, Hawaii
    Posts
    1,127

    Default Police Run from Protesters

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/20..._clashes.shtml

    Iranian riot police run away from protesters in the above BBC video (@ 2:20). Pretty amazing.
    "A Sherman can give you a very nice... edge."- Oddball, Kelly's Heroes
    Who is Cavguy?

  9. #229
    Council Member Blackjack's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    62

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Cavguy View Post
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/20..._clashes.shtml

    Iranian riot police run away from protesters in the above BBC video (@ 2:20). Pretty amazing.
    That is rather incredible Cavguy, they got rushed really fast. A human wave tactic to say the least. The only way they could take down that crowd form the grounds is with a few of the R2-D2s with 20mm guns, well that or cluster bombs.
    See things through the eyes of your enemy and you can defeat him.

  10. #230
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Posts
    1,444

    Default

    Uskowi on Iran is a good source. Pretty objective analysis from a guy who works as an Iran analyst. Speaks Farsi - I think he may be a native speaker. He's on the SWJ blogroll and has the SWJ blog on his blogroll.

    Just a few thoughts - I think one cause of the youth frustration is that the ruling elite are hopelessly corrupt, but they cover up their activity under the guise of religion. They don't buy the religious authority of the mullahs. They see the mix of politics and religion as nothing buy hypocrisy. Even if the protesters succeed in whatever they're attempting to achieve, if anything, I don't know if this has the potential to translate into something the improves the situation or if it just results in another form of unstable government. I'm not so sure that this is a democracy movement, so much as a "cut the crap" movement.
    Last edited by Schmedlap; 06-23-2009 at 08:38 AM.

  11. #231
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,346

    Default standby

    Quote Originally Posted by Cavguy View Post
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/20..._clashes.shtml Iranian riot police run away from protesters in the above BBC video (@ 2:20). Pretty amazing.
    Cav Guy,

    I too watched the clip and noted: that the police only threw stones at the protestors, never had formed lines (OK very limited view) and no rubber or plastic bullets to keep the crowd at a distance. No vehicles, although a line can be seen behind them parked kerbside. Let alone tear gas, which has been used elsewhere.

    Riot police sometimes have to retire, even runaway and few I suspect have not.

    The other significant aspect to the clip was the crowd's size, mainly if not all males and that only some appeared to be throwing stones. Even the advance was very reluctant, but mobs have their own character.

    What would be interesting is whether the scene was in a middle class area or a working class area. I am mindful of the focus on Tinamen Square footage, when the worst scenes were in the working class districts.

    From a faraway armchair viewpoint.

    davidbfpo
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-23-2009 at 10:02 AM.

  12. #232
    Council Member
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    4,021

    Default This links to some earlier posts ....

    re: their man in Beirut - punch this.

  13. #233
    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Posts
    903

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    re: their man in Beirut - punch this.
    You would think Jeff Stein would have a subject for his next blog post from this:
    Retired Adm. Lyons maintained that he could have destroyed the terrorists at a hideout U.S. intelligence had pinpointed, but he was outmaneuvered by others in the cabinet of President Ronald Reagan.

    "I was going to take them apart," Lyons said, "but the secretary of defense," Caspar Weinberger, "sabotaged it."

  14. #234
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,346

    Default Jihadist writer on Iran

    Worth a quick read, no idea how valid the comments are, but website is great: http://www.jihadica.com/ (currently first item).

    davidbfpo

  15. #235
    Council Member marct's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Ottawa, Canada
    Posts
    3,682

    Default Some interesting commentary...

    Proving once again that there is an international language, here is some commentary from Al-Hayat Al-Jadida on the recent elections.




    Once again, a big "Thank You" to MEMRI.
    Sic Bisquitus Disintegrat...
    Marc W.D. Tyrrell, Ph.D.
    Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies,
    Senior Research Fellow,
    The Canadian Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, NPSIA
    Carleton University
    http://marctyrrell.com/

  16. #236
    Council Member Charles Martel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Between deployments?
    Posts
    22

    Default Iranian Mutiny?

    PJMedia is reporting that a letter of support for the protesters signed by Commanders in the Iranian Army. The text of the report can be found at: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/military-mutiny-in-iran/

    If this is true, it would explain why the QF and IRGC have been gaining influence and the Regular Army (and, I would say, Regular Navy) increasingly seem to be sidelined.

    Even if the current regime in Tehran is overthrown, the opposition leaders are only slightly less radical, but it may open up some opportunity for a realistic rapprochement with the West.

  17. #237
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Latitude 17 5' 11N, Longitude 120 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
    Posts
    3,137

    Default

    Any independent confirmation that this letter exists? Google News turns up nothing, and it would be news; one would expect it to be discussed.

  18. #238
    Council Member Charles Martel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Between deployments?
    Posts
    22

    Default Need confirmation

    Absolutely agree. We'll see if other sources confirm.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-13-2009 at 12:27 PM. Reason: Thread moved to regional thread as more fitting

  19. #239
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Latitude 17 5' 11N, Longitude 120 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
    Posts
    3,137

    Default

    I noted the opening sentence:

    Leading commentators and diplomats have been pondering for quite some time why the Iranian leader is not prepared to act against the revolution in a major way.
    The reference to "the revolution" seemed a bit unrealistic, and I thought for a moment that the writer might be channeling Michael Ledeen.

  20. #240
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    589

    Default Thoughts on the Iranian Army and the Revolution

    Although the Iranian Army largely paved the way for Khomeini and the "Revolution" when they "stood aside" and "recommended" that the Shah leave for "health reasons" the Iranian Army has always been rather lukewarm towards the Ayatollahs; Hence the establishment of the IRGC in the first instance. The fact that the Iranian Army is now tacitly supporting what the Western media rather fllipantly call a "revolutionary" movement elides the fact that they were also largely supportive (if not en bloc) during the tenure of Khatami and the 17th Khordad reform movement of which, and this should be remembered, the current events is an offshoot. Many of Khatami's alter kampfer (and even Rafsanjani's family) are associated with the current events. The Army, however, would never challenge the rule of the Faqih but would, as before, more than likely simply stand aside especially given the existence of the highly motivated IRGC and their adjunct, the Basij militia (a factor they didn't have to take into consideration before).
    Last edited by Tukhachevskii; 12-14-2009 at 10:36 AM.

Similar Threads

  1. Sudan Watch (to July 2012)
    By SWJED in forum Africa
    Replies: 124
    Last Post: 07-06-2012, 03:18 PM
  2. Economic Warfare
    By slapout9 in forum Futurists & Theorists
    Replies: 244
    Last Post: 01-11-2012, 02:13 AM
  3. Yemen - a catch all thread for 2007-2011
    By SWJED in forum Middle East
    Replies: 84
    Last Post: 03-21-2011, 11:46 AM
  4. Replies: 164
    Last Post: 05-10-2010, 11:40 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •