Observing Iran (catch all historical thread)

[tequila]

Lynch is certainly not saying that everything is hunky dory. What he is saying is that American-allied Sunni Arab states in the Gulf, as well as Egypt, are seriously rethinking their options about how to accomodate the bulking Iranian presence in the region. Outright opposition to Iran through a tighter American alliance, the preferred position of this Administration and perhaps the next whether Republican or Democratic, may not be in the cards.

[SSG Rock]

An interesting tidbit of information here my friends. I can't vouch for the accuracy of the reporting. I was alerted to this article by my gold broker who seems to have his eye on absolutely anything that could impact the US economy. Be that as it may, I wonder how far along Iran really is in their nuclear weapons program? And, if they actually launch a vehicle into space, do you think that should be a green light for military action of any kind of any scope?

[marct]

An interesting tidbit of information here my friends. I can't vouch for the accuracy of the reporting. I was alerted to this article by my gold broker who seems to have his eye on absolutely anything that could impact the US economy. Be that as it may, I wonder how far along Iran really is in their nuclear weapons program? And, if they actually launch a vehicle into space, do you think that should be a green light for military action of any kind of any scope?

Hi SSG Rock. I'm getting a "server not found" error. Can you check the URL? Thanks,
Marc

[SSG Rock]

I just checked the link and it worked for me, at any rate.

Here is the text:

Last update - 19:27 26/01/2007


Report: Iran almost ready to launch spy satellite into space

By Reuters

Iran has converted a 30-ton ballistic missile into a satellite launch vehicle that will soon be used to send a reconaissance satellite into space, a move that could have wide security implications, Aviation Week & Space Technology magazine reported on its Web site on Thursday.

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, spoke about the upcoming launch to religious students and clerics in Qom, the industry trade publication said.

The launcher is a version of the Shahab-3 missile that has a range of 800 to 1,000 miles (1,285-1,600 kilometers), the magazine said, citing unidentified U.S. agencies. A missile of its kind could reach Saudi Arabia and as far west as Turkey, the report said.

Additionally, improvements in space launches could help Iran build an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of almost 2,500 miles (4,000 kilometers), according to the magazine.

Iran's satellite launch will likely increase Western concern over its strategic capabilities and intentions, the magazine said.

The former head of the Israel Missile Defense Organization, Uzi Rubin, said that, "ultimately, [Iran's] space program aims to orbit reconnaissance satellites like Israel's 'Ofek,' using an Iranian satellite launcher from Iranian territory."

He added, "a reconnaissance satellite of reasonable performance should weigh about 300 kg. [660 lb.] Once Iran learns how to put 300 kg. into earth orbit, it could adapt the satellite launcher into an ICBM that could drop more than 300 kg anywhere in the world."

Iran has long been at odds with the United States and Europe, pushing ahead with plans to enrich uranium as part of what Tehran calls a peaceful energy program. The West has feared that Iran instead is trying to develop nuclear weapons.

Another article from a more well known periodical: Aviation Week & Space Technology

[marct]

It must have been a blip with my server <sigh>. I could get it now, although a couple of minutes ago I couldn't (I HATE Bell!!!!). Thanks for posting the full article.


Honestly, I wouldn't be worried about ICBMs. They are pretty passe in all too many ways. A dirty nuke or an EMP bomb over a selected target field, however...

Marc

[bismark17]

When I logged into Stratfor.com it had an article on the emerging Iranian satellite program.

[kaur]

In the "Intelligence" section there was talk about Austrian made cal .50 rifles, that were sold to Iran and ended in Iraqi insurgents hands.

There is talk about new deal that helps to produce hard cash to Iran.

State radio estimated the total value of the deal at $18 billion but other Iranian media did not mention any figures.

http://jp.reuters.com/news/articlene...C2_worldNews-4

[tequila]

Anyone know for sure about the .50-cal. Steyrs which were supposedly captured in Iraq? Any idea why those were not produced in the latest presentations?

[kaur]

tequila, good question! Has anyone really seen those rifles in Iraq or is this some kind of propaganda war against old Europe? If you consider fact that insurgents like to play with gadgets in front of cameras, then youtube should be full of this info

[Stan]

Well, some seem to think so !

http://medienkritik.typepad.com/blog...wered_aus.html

Just another reason for the Americans to thank the European "friends" in the Austrian government. High-powered 50 caliber rifles sold to Iran "to fight drug smugglers" by the Austrian firm Steyr-Mannlicher are now killing US troops in Iraq, and the Austrian government expressly approved the sale in 2005 despite U.S. protests, describing the deal as "unimpeachable":

Just more evidence of the non-violent superiority of the European way-of-life. Trade anything to anyone. Who cares if they are genocidal thugs or out to build a nuke or wipe Israel off the map? Who cares if they use the rifles to kill Americans? This keeps Austria's unemployment down. Don't you just love pacifism?

[tequila]

Stan, all I've been able to find are similar links from nutbag right-wing blogs linking to the same damned Telegraph story, which has so far not been substantiated by anything from CENTCOM. Do we have reports of troops or vehicles actually being hit with .50-cal. sniper rounds?

[SWJED]

16 June NY Times - Strategy on Iran Stirs New Debate at White House by Helene Cooper and David Sanger.

A year after President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced a new strategy toward Iran, a behind-the-scenes debate has broken out within the administration over whether the approach has any hope of reining in Iran’s nuclear program, according to senior administration officials.

The debate has pitted Ms. Rice and her deputies, who appear to be winning so far, against the few remaining hawks inside the administration, especially those in Vice President Dick Cheney’s office who, according to some people familiar with the discussions, are pressing for greater consideration of military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.

In the year since Ms. Rice announced the new strategy for the United States to join forces with Europe, Russia and China to press Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities, Iran has installed more than a thousand centrifuges to enrich uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency predicts that 8,000 or so could be spinning by the end of the year, if Iran surmounts its technical problems...

16 June Washington Post - Iran Curtails Freedom In Throwback to 1979 by Robin Wright.

Iran is in the midst of a sweeping crackdown that both Iranians and U.S. analysts compare to a cultural revolution in its attempt to steer the oil-rich theocracy back to the rigid strictures of the 1979 revolution.

The recent detentions of Iranian American dual nationals are only a small part of a campaign that includes arrests, interrogations, intimidation and harassment of thousands of Iranians as well as purges of academics and new censorship codes for the media. Hundreds of Iranians have been detained and interrogated, including a top Iranian official, according to Iranian and international human rights groups...

[SWJED]

24 June NY Times - Iran Cracks Down on Dissent, Parading Examples in Streets by Neil MacFarquhar.

Iran is in the throes of one of its most ferocious crackdowns on dissent in years, with the government focusing on labor leaders, universities, the press, women’s rights advocates, a former nuclear negotiator and Iranian-Americans, three of whom have been in prison for more than six weeks.

The shift is occurring against the backdrop of an economy so stressed that although Iran is the world’s second-largest oil exporter, it is on the verge of rationing gasoline. At the same time, the nuclear standoff with the West threatens to bring new sanctions.

The hard-line administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, analysts say, faces rising pressure for failing to deliver on promises of greater prosperity from soaring oil revenue. It has been using American support for a change in government as well as a possible military attack as a pretext to hound his opposition and its sympathizers.

Some analysts describe it as a “cultural revolution,” an attempt to roll back the clock to the time of the 1979 revolution, when the newly formed Islamic Republic combined religious zeal and anti-imperialist rhetoric to try to assert itself as a regional leader...

[goesh]

FOXNEWS.COM HOME > WORLD

"Iran Wages War on 'Immoral' Cell Phone Messages
Monday, June 25, 2007


Iran’s state telecommunications company is offering rewards to citizens who turn in their neighbors for sending or receiving “immoral” messages on their cell phones, according to a report in The News International.

"There are rewards for those who report senders of immoral multimedia messages to the judiciary," Vafa Ghaffarain, head of Iran's telecommunications company, was quoted as saying.

News of the rewards came as the Iranian government issued a press release stating it would try to monitor and censor the MMS (multimedia messaging service) material on all phones. MMS messages contain still images, audio, and video.

The ban stems from an order issued in April by the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution that the Iranian Telecommunications Ministry must acquire technology for filtering multimedia messages, Foreign Policy magazine reported. The council reportedly said that the measure was necessary to prevent "immoral actions and social problems."

Iran already practices heavy censorship on Internet access, banning thousands of sites and blogs that contain sexual or politically controversial content, the News reports. Sites advocating women’s rights and social networking sites are also banned."

[skiguy]

Did anyone catch the editor's note on that Times article?

But the man in the photograph, according to widespread Iranian news reports, was one of more than 100 people arrested recently on charges of being part of a gang that had committed rapes, robberies, forgeries and other crimes.

Yeah..sure.

[goesh]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19457357/

"Iran fuel rations spark anger, rioting
At least two pump stations torched; motorists line up for gas for hours"

[Jedburgh]

RFE-RL, 29 Jun 07: Iran: Officials Reportedly Ban Negative Gas-Rationing Stories

Reports say Iran's Supreme National Security Council has warned journalists not to report on problems caused by gas rationing that led to great anger among some citizens who set fire to many gas stations in several cities on June 27....

...The unrest, described by some as "gasoline riots," reportedly also led to the temporary closure of the country's mobile phone text messaging network by authorities who were trying to prevent unrest and protests from spreading....

...In recent months, Iran's top security body has also put journalists under pressure not to criticize the country's nuclear policies and not to depict the Iranian government's dealings in the nuclear crisis as unsuccessful...

[tequila]

Iranian shakeup a setback for hardline leader - USATODAY, 5 Sep.

Opponents of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have assumed leadership of two of Iran's top institutions, a shakeup that reflects Western economic pressure on Iran and could lead to a less confrontational foreign policy, particularly on the nuclear issue.

On Tuesday, Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a pragmatic former president who lost to Ahmadinejad in 2005 presidential elections, was elected head of the Assembly of Experts. Under Iran's political system, the 86-member body of Shiite Muslim clerics appoints Iran's supreme leader — a religious figure who outranks the president.

On Saturday, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei replaced the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the most powerful military organization in the country.

Taken together, the steps are a setback for Ahmadinejad, said William Samii, an Iran analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, a think tank for the U.S. Navy.

"The supreme leader has taken actions to sideline Ahmadinejad and the people associated with him," Samii said. "People are fed up with Ahmadinejad and his belligerence. The regime will try to pursue a less confrontational foreign policy ..."

[Rex Brynen]

There's no doubt that Rafsanjani's election to head the Assembly of Experts is a blow to Ahmadinejad (although its not clear what role Khameini played in it, since much had to do with the views of Assembly members). I don't know enough about the new IRGC commander to have a view on that.

However, it is hard to read the Supreme Leader--I was in Tehran a few months ago, and spoke at the Center for Strategic Studies (the Expediency Council's foreign policy think tank). I didn't get the sense that the Rafsanjani people felt that they were truly in ascendency, that their position was secure, or that Khameini had come down definitively against Ahmadinejad. There's a lot of playing one-end-against-the-other.

(A post for another time, perhaps, but it was a really fascinating visit. )

[Tom Odom]

There's no doubt that Rafsanjani's election to head the Assembly of Experts is a blow to Ahmadinejad (although its not clear what role Khameini played in it, since much had to do with the views of Assembly members). I don't know enough about the new IRGC commander to have a view on that.

However, it is hard to read the Supreme Leader--I was in Tehran a few months ago, and spoke at the Center for Strategic Studies (the Expediency Council's foreign policy think tank). I didn't get the sense that the Rafsanjani people felt that they were truly in ascendency, that their position was secure, or that Khameini had come down definitively against Ahmadinejad. There's a lot of playing one-end-against-the-other.

(A post for another time, perhaps, but it was a really fascinating visit. )

Make a great article for the SWJ Blog, Rex.

Best

Tom