Energy Security

[Firn]

I spent some time recently to inform me a bit more about electrified vehicles and was actually quite surprised by the recent numbers of sales. The 2013 outlook feels actually a bit dated as it is a (electric) field in flux...



Still market shares are mostly tiny...



Looking at the personal financial picture a buy looks far more attractive then I imagined, in this case as a second car for the family. I planned my next compact car purchase in 2016, we will see.

It is not that far-fetched anymore that in the long run electric cars will boost European utilities. Some oil imports might be substituted by an energy mix including other carbon. Used car batteries might indeed increasingly used for renewables. Still small numbers, still early days but it looks actually surprisingly good from my point of view...

[Firn]

Electric cars have been somewhat of a mirage but in the last years it is slowly, very slowly materializing.

However a vehicle with far more impact has been the eBike in various shapes and forms. The giant market driver is of course China, with 37 millions sold in 2013 pushing the fleet up to official 181 units. The EU sales are of course dwarfed, with only over a million hitting the streets.

The market growth has been very impressive indeed with China going in fifteen years from 60000 to those 37 million.

eBikes have become much more mature and are highly efficient means of transport for not that short distances. I tested recently a bit more expensive 29' hardtail pedalec with a central Bosch engine and was surprised by the 400W battery endurance and additional power. It worked great on a moderate gravel road but impressed me most up on really steep ramps in the forest. I would have prefered a bit wider tyres (2,5') and a little less pressure for more grip and a smoother ride.

But of course the vast majority in China uses still pretty cheap 'E-Scooters' with lead batteries for commuting, although lithium ones are growing over 40% compared to the 6% overall market growth there. They are having a huge impact on the way the Chinese move and are perhaps the brightest note in that terrible environmental mess.