Good questions which are usually not in short supply regarding China...
Peak diesel demand just two years ago is a very bold prediction. A quick look at the commercial vehicle sales have roughly doubled within 10 years on a 3Y basis. I don't know about the longevity of Chinese trucks and the typical turnover but the overall fleet size should be still increasing greatly even if annual sales are down. Alternatives to diesel play only a minor role so, all things equal, we would have to see a large drop in miles per vehicle (or/and a lot of vehicle exports to Africa ) if demand should peak in 2017Sinopec has offered a view of the country that should serve as a reality check to any oil bull. For diesel, the fuel that most closely tracks economic growth, the peak in China’s demand is just two years away, in 2017, according to Sinopec Chairman Fu Chengyu, who gave his outlook on a little reported March 23 conference call. The high point in gasoline sales is likely to come in about a decade, he said, and the company is already preparing for the day when selling fuel is what he called a “non-core” activity.
The current trend of diesel and ex-diesel oil consumption...
The China Commercial Vehicle Outlook is dated but gives plenty of details on the market (among them the officially proposed vehicle duration)A recent global overview provides some background. There might have been some overinvestment due to a too bullish projection of the economy, some impact by Euro IV, more efficient fleet management. lots of other factors and so forth but personally it seems unlikey that we will see no increase in consumption over 2017 unless there is a might Chinese crash.
China invests massively in renewables but China is massive and the energy sector has typically a huge momentum. I will have to take a closer look at the non-diesel part later, starting most likey here.
Yes I love graphs!
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