Thanks for your posting, Surfer.
Paul Saunders' point is well taken: the combination of a struggling Russian economy and low gas prices means less ability for them to invest at their end to ensure European winter heating.

My focus is more at the other end... how can people plan for and best administer a fuel shortage.
The following may be of interest as the same principle (of solidarity in burden-sharing) is a cornerstone of international response to an oil supply shortage.

European solidarity was briefly tested during the January 09 cut-off of Russian gas, but the result was hardly encouraging.
A few weeks later, the former executive director of the IEA, Claude Mandil said that a central lesson learned from the crisis is, “Solidarity is still just words.” He went on to cite the example of Italy, saying, “Italy doesn’t care for a second for the global supply of Europe, which is the exact opposite of European solidarity.”
The full transcript is here:
http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/ma...article-179254

Should this winter prove to be a cold one, Europe will be worried.

Meanwhile, we North Americans need to thoroughly examine this issue. Should anything interfere with our supply of affordable fuel (whether liquid fuels or gas) during the Canadian/North Dakota winter, we would have a most formidable problem on our hands... one which (like Ice Storm '98, which knocked out our electricity in January) must be dealt with at the local level.
The problem is that when it comes to fuel, we have no local plans.

The Brits and Australians are onto this in a serious way, and they barely have a winter.
We North Americans don't believe it will happen over here.
Thanks for your interest.