Energy Security

[Rick M]

Review and application of SSI study, “Known Unknowns: Unconventional Strategic Shocks in Defense Strategy Development” (Nathan Freier, Nov. 2008).

The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) at the US Army War College has issued many stimulating research papers in recent years, several of which deal with energy security issues.
Nathan Freier’s recent SSI paper does not focus on energy issues.
Rather, the central purpose of his study is to present a paradigm for the examination of potential strategic shocks.

I recently summarized the key points of Nathan Freier’s “Known Unknowns” and then applied his paradigm to emerging energy security issues, primarily the phenomenon known as “peak oil” and its corollary, export decline.

The central point of my application of Freier’s paradigm to the issue of peak oil may be summed up thus: there are well-established trend-lines which point to impending energy security concerns (witness yesterday's warning from the IEA, #40 above).
Meanwhile, industry and government officials largely deny these concerns.
This ongoing situation provides a classic and real-time illustration of an evolving potential shock.
It is precisely the sort of situation which Freier says needs to be noted and scrutinized by military analysts.

This analysis was posted at Energy Bulletin this morning:
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/49779