Energy Security

[Polarbear]

This week an article by Robin Mills, an energy consultant, appeared on the website of the European Energy Review. The piece sparked a controversial debate among the readers.
Especially questionable appear his assumptions about the energy value of different sources ("to the consumer, the source of the fuel that goes into the tank is irrelevant"), his belief that oil as fuel can be replaced by alternative fuels without any difficulty, as for example the substition by LNG or nuclear power on ships, as well as his total neglection environmental effects by the production of unconvetional oil (e.g. tar sand).

Mills' opininion is also contrasted by the article of James Murra and David King ("Oil's tipping point has passed") in Nature (No. 481, p. 433-435).

[AmericanPride]

Oil demand and speculation may be topping off. This should not come as a surprise since consistent high oil prices produce countervailing forces in supply increases and demand reduction.

[Rick M]

AP,

I posted a few observations re. your Globe article (in the Comments section for that article).

As for the larger energy supply picture, the big hope/"game-changer" has been shale/tight oil and shale gas.
The Globe recently ran an article on Art Berman, who was warning several years ago that shale gas was over-hyped and that investors should be careful.

Having been roundly criticized for expressing his concerns, the ongoing difficulties at Chesapeake Energy are exactly the sort of thing that Art warned about.
Please see Comments here:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...rticle2405737/

[AmericanPride]

Rick,

I appreciate your comments on that article; very well written. I agree with you that shale oil and gas are not an effective replacement for crude. Where I disagree is the claim that we are in, entering, or have past a point in which oil production is in terminal decline. I think this 2011 EIA report is a good starting point. I also mentioned in a previous post about the problems of demand shock, speculation, and global security issues (GWoT, Iran, etc), which all contribute to high oil prices. I think this graph and this graph are important to understanding the long-term context of oil prices and production.

[Rick M]

"in, entering, or have past a point in which oil production is in terminal decline."

Thanks for your reply, AP

It's a matter of definition (re oil production).
What is oil?

I certainly accept that although the evidence gets stronger with each passing month, the IEA could be proven wrong in its assertion that conventional oil is unlikely to surpass its 2006 peak of around 74-75 mbpd. There is plenty of evidence that this plateau was reached in 05, even as early as late 2004, but there is little to be gained by haggling over minor details.

Meanwhile, there is no evidence that global all-liquids production has peaked: we are now near 90 mbpd and there is nothing to indicate a peak (much less a subsequent decline).
I have no idea what the global all-liquids peak might eventually be, nor when such a peak/plateau might occur, but I do believe that it will be very problematic when it does occur.

What does seem clear is this: conventional oil production has been stalled for a worrisome length of time. depletion of the very large oil-fields (which provide most of our liquid fuel supply) is ongoing, perhaps accelerating, and new sources of liquid fuels (ie. deep-water pre-salt, shale oil, etc) are both more energy-intensive and more capital-intensive.

Both of these trends are consistent with the warnings that peak oil analysts have been arguing for many years.

[slapout9]

Dr. Jerome Corsi Interview on Abiotic Oil and NAZI technology from WW2.... on how to liquefy coal.
The interview starts at about the 12 minute mark.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z998uKCahQo

Yes this is a conspiracy theory but he does raise some interesting questions like why is Oil found 40,000 feet(7 miles) below the surface if it is composed of dead plant and animal matter? Someone hear should know the answer if there is one.

[Fuchs]

Dr. Jerome Corsi Interview on Abiotic Oil and NAZI technology from WW2.... on how to liquefy coal.

Not Nazi technology, especially not NAZI technology.

The tech dates back to 1920's
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer_Tropsch
and is German technology.

Several plants were running (or are), including in East Germany, South Africa. The PRC gave a huge CTL program up, prolly because of coal supply issues.

I read years ago (~2004 info) that CTL would be commercially useful at 40 $/barrel. Very little has happened in regard to more CTL production during the recent oil price peaks, though.

[Ulenspiegel]

Dr. Jerome Corsi Interview on Abiotic Oil and NAZI technology from WW2.... on how to liquefy coal.
The interview starts at about the 12 minute mark.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z998uKCahQo

Yes this is a conspiracy theory but he does raise some interesting questions like why is Oil found 40,000 feet(7 miles) below the surface if it is composed of dead plant and animal matter? Someone hear should know the answer if there is one.

There is one issue with abiotic oil: Many of the compounds in oil are chiral and you often find only one of the the two possible forms in oil, this clearly points to a biogenic origin.

Reason: The enzymatic proteins in plants (=biological catalysts) are build up from chiral amino acids. Therefore, they can only accelerate the reaction of one of two chiral product, which is enriched.

If the oil has an abiotic origin you would find both chiral forms in a 1:1 ratio.