@Firn
as far I understand the situation, the wholesale price of electricity is quite irrelevant for the consumers: a lower wholesale price leads to higher RE tax. Electricity will very likely cost almost the same in the next 15 years, maybe slightly more around 2023 due to more (expensive) offshore wind until 2020. Around 2030 we as consumers can expect a sharp drop of the RE payments as a lot of expensive PV falls out of the FIT.
For energy intensive industry the situation is quite good as these guys do not pay any RE tax, i.e. the Germany energy intensive industry will improve its relative competitiveness on the global market in the years to come.
For utilities this means that NO new conventional power plant is able to make money in a energy only market. You have to privide other services or switch to REs.
As German and Austrian utilities have excess capacity only until 2019, I expect a higher wholesale price then. Or from a different POV: The Austrian Verbund assumes that their mothballed NG power plants are able to make money in 2019 again.
On the other hand, the German Net Agency and some other people expect an increasing NET export of German electricity even after 2019, therefore, I may miss something. (I would expect lower net exports as more electricty is then generated from expensive NG, which not longer has the advantages coal has today.)
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