Energy Security

[Firn]

Indeed, Rick, depleting the others reserves at a rather cheap rate and keep the own reserves for times of great need and high prices would seem wiser. This of course also a case in which capitalism does not work as the externalities are not taken into account by private agents. The state which did a fine job supporting the research should have been far stricter in regulating the market.

Ulenspiegel, I don't know on which guesstimates the business plan of many of those companies was founded and investement was comitted but I would be surprised to see the current prices of natural gas among the vast majority. A boom contains of course always the danger of overinvestment and the misallocation of capital. This might be half-bad if there is a good deal of sensible infrastructure as after the Railway Mania in the UK but it does not look as pretty for the current one...

It will be highly interesting to watch how the story goes on. In the meantime investments in other areas seem to be more promising in the long term.

I recently watched NASA | Regenerative Fuel Cells, Energy Storage Systems for Space Applications [HD] .

Great stuff, of course mostly about the things it says in the title.

[Ulenspiegel]

Ulenspiegel, I don't know on which guesstimates the business plan of many of those companies was founded and investement was comitted but I would be surprised to see the current prices of natural gas among the vast majority. A boom contains of course always the danger of overinvestment and the misallocation of capital. This might be half-bad if there is a good deal of sensible infrastructure as after the Railway Mania in the UK but it does not look as pretty for the current one...

It will be highly interesting to watch how the story goes on. In the meantime investments in other areas seem to be more promising in the long term.

I recently watched NASA | Regenerative Fuel Cells, Energy Storage Systems for Space Applications [HD] .

Great stuff, of course mostly about the things it says in the title.

The business plan of most companies was very likely quite solid on paper, however, reality sucks. :-)

Pure shale gas companies need 4-6 USD/mcf to be profitable, the lack of infrastructure prevented and still prevents the selling of shale gas on the global market: the price dropped to 2 USD, now we are at 3-4 USD again, a price at which BTW utilities in the USA switch back to hard coal again.

As a typical shale gas well depletes very fast - usually in less than 7 years- it is very unlikely that pure shale gas companies made money with the production of methane in the USA. The whole affair is not sustainable in the current state and, therefore, a bad reference.

I do not dispute that in Europe the NG prices are (much) higher and shale companies may make profit under US conditions. However, with different ownership/production rights, less sophisticated technology, much smaller reserves and a much higher population density the overall picture is not clear and it does not help the proponents of shale gas to refer to the non sustainable US situation.

I support evaluation of shale gas production, but do not seee any need to support it in large scale. It is not a game changer, not in the USA, even less in Europe.

[Firn]

Changing the Game? : Emissions and Market Implications of New Natural Gas Supplies is a lecture by Hillard Huntington from the Energy Modeling Forum.

Hillard Huntington discusses a study that evaluates the channels through which shale formations and new natural gas supplies can change energy, economic and environmental opportunities within North America. He concludes that continued shale gas development within North America is likely to have more sweeping impacts on future energy prices than on the economy or the environment*.

Perhaps the most important graphic was one showing the minuscle percentage of jobs added as a result of the big boom and its minor impact on the GDP. This should of course come to no surprise to people informed about the general makeup of developed economy but it was still impressive to see. Compare that with the response in the media and the 'feeling' of a student who asked about it.

The regional price level of natural gas and the costs of transport were also nice.

*He focused on climate change and the respective emissions. The local impact was not discussed.

[Rick M]

Ron Patterson picks up on Steve Kopits' presentation and questions whether OPEC is capable of responding when called upon to produce more oil:

http://peakoilbarrel.com/can-depend-...c-opec-peaked/

[Firn]

I spent some time recently to inform me a bit more about electrified vehicles and was actually quite surprised by the recent numbers of sales. The 2013 outlook feels actually a bit dated as it is a (electric) field in flux...



Still market shares are mostly tiny...



Looking at the personal financial picture a buy looks far more attractive then I imagined, in this case as a second car for the family. I planned my next compact car purchase in 2016, we will see.

It is not that far-fetched anymore that in the long run electric cars will boost European utilities. Some oil imports might be substituted by an energy mix including other carbon. Used car batteries might indeed increasingly used for renewables. Still small numbers, still early days but it looks actually surprisingly good from my point of view...

[Firn]

Electric cars have been somewhat of a mirage but in the last years it is slowly, very slowly materializing.

However a vehicle with far more impact has been the eBike in various shapes and forms. The giant market driver is of course China, with 37 millions sold in 2013 pushing the fleet up to official 181 units. The EU sales are of course dwarfed, with only over a million hitting the streets.

The market growth has been very impressive indeed with China going in fifteen years from 60000 to those 37 million.

eBikes have become much more mature and are highly efficient means of transport for not that short distances. I tested recently a bit more expensive 29' hardtail pedalec with a central Bosch engine and was surprised by the 400W battery endurance and additional power. It worked great on a moderate gravel road but impressed me most up on really steep ramps in the forest. I would have prefered a bit wider tyres (2,5') and a little less pressure for more grip and a smoother ride.

But of course the vast majority in China uses still pretty cheap 'E-Scooters' with lead batteries for commuting, although lithium ones are growing over 40% compared to the 6% overall market growth there. They are having a huge impact on the way the Chinese move and are perhaps the brightest note in that terrible environmental mess.