Energy Security

[Ski]

Bill

It's difficult if not foolish to try and predict what is going to happen, but we still must try.

You make a very good point about the grey and black (we called them shadow economies) economies. Mexico is heavily affected by the shadow markets as well.

The alternate scenario for me is still in the works. I don't even have all (or nearly all) the variables identified yet. I know one thing - Mexico will be in real trouble economically over the next decade without critical economic, governmental and social reforms.

[Rick M]

I'm afraid I don't have anything worthwhile to contribute re. Mexico.
I'm aware of the oil aspects but that's it... never been down there, only know what I have read.

On a different note, this was posted today re peak oil and our agri-food system.
I think that the situation in Canada applies equally to USA: the first farmer is looking at biofuels, the second at local food supply.
My comments re. our energy dept being in denial on PO apply equally to your DoE.
My comments re Agriculture Canada apply equally to your USDA.
Until DoE sounds the alarm, USDA is unlikely to examine how US agri-food might function in a world without cheap energy.
Here is the link... please let me know what you think:
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50800

[Rick M]

The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas kindly invited me to present at their international conference in Denver last month.

This presentation was one of three in a 90-minute session entitled "North American Energy System Vulnerabilities."
Scott Pugh (DHS) and Jeff Brown (geologist & expert on export decline) both made excellent presentations and I felt honoured to present alongside them.

The following link should allow you to view the presentation, which examines the literature on how a fuel emergency may be planned for & administered, some of the key sticking points, and the ongoing lack of preparedness here in North America:

http://www.aspo.tv/rick-munroe.html

(For some reason this video is usually accessible without a password... I don't know why. I hope that ASPO will eventually make all of them available because most of them are superb.)

Please let me know what you think, especially if anyone spots something which you think is erroneous or misleading.

[Rick M]

A rather thought-provoking article on the past decade was posted in today's Ottawa Citizen:
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/technol...805/story.html

A response was submitted (at bottom).
Other views are welcome, of course.

Best wishes to you all for the upcoming decade.
By the time it's done, I will be pushing 70... now that's an anxiety-provoking thought in itself.

[slapout9]

Here is another definition for ASCOPE.......it's a pipeline project



http://www.ascopegas.com.my/ascopewss/agc/default.aspx

[Rick M]

Hi, Slap

I was puzzled by your comment but checked out the link.
I was aware of the new pipeline to China having just opened but not of the ASCOPE group (thanks for that).

Being still puzzled by your comment about definitions, I googled ASCOPE and was informed as to its usual (military) meaning.
So now I get it.
I continue to learn from you guys... there are many acronyms that I don't always understand.

But speaking of pipelines, this should be of concern not only to Alaskans (published this morning):
http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/n...y/1007672.html

The larger concern here is a legitimate one: once a supply system appears to be unviable (for whatever reason), it may be abandoned.
The sudden loss of oil which might otherwise be brought to market could accelerate the drop in production.

In the case of Alaska, the drop in production has physical as well as fiscal effects to the pipeline.
Pipelines are expensive to maintain, especially in such a harsh climate.
It's not clear how the interplay between declining production and increasing maintenance costs will evolve....

[Rick M]

This was posted earlier today:

http://www.businessinsider.com/russi...00000000c1b336

Dr. Robert Hirsch (author of the landmark 2005 Hirsch Report on PO which was conducted for DoE) argues against two analysts who argue that there is no urgency re global oil supply.

I offered some observations at the end.

[slapout9]

Hi, Slap

I was puzzled by your comment but checked out the link.
I was aware of the new pipeline to China having just opened but not of the ASCOPE group (thanks for that).

Being still puzzled by your comment about definitions, I googled ASCOPE and was informed as to its usual (military) meaning.
So now I get it.
I continue to learn from you guys... there are many acronyms that I don't always understand.

But speaking of pipelines, this should be of concern not only to Alaskans (published this morning):
http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/n...y/1007672.html

The larger concern here is a legitimate one: once a supply system appears to be unviable (for whatever reason), it may be abandoned.
The sudden loss of oil which might otherwise be brought to market could accelerate the drop in production.

In the case of Alaska, the drop in production has physical as well as fiscal effects to the pipeline.
Pipelines are expensive to maintain, especially in such a harsh climate.
It's not clear how the interplay between declining production and increasing maintenance costs will evolve....

Hi RickM, all and all I just thought it was an interesting coincidence