Energy Security

[Rick M]

This morning I worked my way through three recent UK documents:

1. DECC's Business Continuity Management for Fuel Shortages (Nov. 08)

This brief document (10 pgs) contained the observation that local fuel supplies "could be exhausted within 48 hours of an incident and it could take up to 10 days before stock levels are fully restored" (p.2).

DECC's Maximum Purchasing Scheme would limit purchase for non-essential users to maximum 15 litres (roughly 3 gallons).
This strikes me as a bad idea for two reasons:
1. History: In USA during the 1979 crisis they limited purchases to $5 max, a similar volume. As Yergin states, "The results were exactly the opposite of what was intended, for it meant that motorists had to come back to gas stations that much more frequently" (The Prize, p. 692).
2. Common sense: People will want to top up their tanks as soon as they have gone 75 miles or so.
Topping-up creates line-ups which waste time & additional fuel and increases tensions at the pumps.

Better to have a fixed limit, say 30 litres, no more and no less.
That will reduce topping up.
Emergency pricing will do the rest of the job....

Here is the link:
http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/medi...el_nov2008.pdf

2. NHS Guidance on Planning for Disruption to Road Fuel Supply (Oct. 08)

At 30 pages, this is the most comprehensive of the three documents.
It contained a few interesting observations:
- In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, health facilities had power and their lights acted as a beacon (literally) for displaced citizens, and this created some security issues for those facilities.

- This doc has several warnings not to underestimate the complexities of a fuel shortage, which is prudent.

- The "Myth of a Central Fuel List" (p. 14) is interesting... it indicates how seriously businesses view their fuel supply and gives a hint of the efforts that people will go to in order to gain preferential access/Essential User status.

- The recommendation to "attempt to have all workers try public transport options" (p. 14) of course makes sense, but as Kathy Leotta points out, "Transit systems have only limited capabilities for quickly increasing services... due to a small supply of extra vehicles and drivers" (p. 4).
Switching to public transit will be easier said than done.

- Other than its request that "all unforecasted costs... are captured for audit" (p. 17) there is little acknowledgment of the budgetary concerns which could quickly arise. It seems highly unlikely that any free-market economy could have an extended fuel supply problem without also having an extended price spike.
Here is the link:
http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publications...ance/DH_089955

3. Heart of Birmingham NHS Fuel Shortage Plan (reviewed June 27/09)

I found this 21-page plan to be the most intriguing of the three since it addresses some of the significant details of managing the Temporary Logo Scheme (p. 4-5), issues around communicating info to the public (p. 6), concerns about supply chain failures, etc.

Returning to the topic of budgetary problems arising during a fuel emergency, it is puzzling to see no warnings in any of these three documents that pricing during a fuel emergency could prove problematic to their budgets and/or to the service delivery capability of their agencies.
In the Birmingham document, the topic of Financial Implications (Sect. 12.0) is raised, but this section contains a single unfathomable sentence: "There are no significant financial implications anticipated in the implementation of this plan" (p. 13).

Similarly, Sect. 10.0 on Training states: "There are no specific training requirements associated with this plan" (p. 13).

Both NHS documents contain some specific and sensible recommendations for personnel, for delivery of services, accountability re fuel use, etc.
One would think that this would surely require some rather detailed consultation with staff (and subsequent training) in order to implement these recommendations.
Here is the link:
http://www.bpcssa.nhs.uk/policies/_h...cies%5C881.pdf

4. Some final comments

To their credit, the UK planners have recognized two central facts:
1. a fuel emergency can be a whopper of a problem, and
2. fuel supply and other emergencies must be addressed at the local level first, hence the need for local plans, pre-authorization & empowerment, etc.
Here in North America, there seems to be little awareness of either fact, and therefore precious little action, especially at the local level.

I fear that even the UK planners may be overlooking the issue of price spikes, the resulting budgetary constraints & economic difficulties, and the potential threat to civil order.