Energy Security

[Firn]

The good news are that PV is a generator for which global installation doubles in less than four years, from 1% to 32% takes only 5 doubling steps, i.e. 20 years. And there are no real bottlenecks for required materials.

Installation and O&M are more or less low tech for PV, so no real problem for a wider distribution.

Wind power is more tricky as installation and O&M is sometimes more on the high tech side, however, with huge potential in developed countries and some of the developing countries I see a real impact in PV and wind power.

I fully agree with you and the basic logic is hard to deny. PV is booming for very good reasons, having become ever more cost-efficient per watt surprisingly quickly.




From Bloomberg's article: California Just Had a Stunning Increase in Solar and good chunk comes from mighty Berkshire. In addition to the utility numbers 'In small-scale solar, capacity for another 2.3 gigawatts has been installed'. Not bad at all...

[Firn]

An interesting article about oil storage in the US gets filled up at a rapid pace.

Traders’ attempts to use every cubic inch of storage underscores how desperate the market has become to stow oil. Supplies at Cushing reached a record 56.3 million barrels as of March 20, Energy Information Administration data show. Nationwide, stockpiles at 466.7 million are the highest since 1930

Who saw that coming even one year ago?

[Firn]

X-rays Reveal Secret Life of Batteries offers amazing pictures and graphs on some processes inside experimental batteries. It is a public lecture and thus explained in a simplistic but cohesive and clear manner.

[Firn]

China’s Fuel Demand to Peak Sooner Than Oil Giants Expect makes for interesting reading. China dominated demand growth across pretty much all the commodities so a different path will be felt around the world.

Sinopec has offered a view of the country that should serve as a reality check to any oil bull. For diesel, the fuel that most closely tracks economic growth, the peak in China’s demand is just two years away, in 2017, according to Sinopec Chairman Fu Chengyu, who gave his outlook on a little reported March 23 conference call. The high point in gasoline sales is likely to come in about a decade, he said, and the company is already preparing for the day when selling fuel is what he called a “non-core” activity.

It seems a little to bullish (or bearish depending on your perspective) but it is well worth to think about it.

[Bill Moore]

China’s Fuel Demand to Peak Sooner Than Oil Giants Expect makes for interesting reading. China dominated demand growth across pretty much all the commodities so a different path will be felt around the world.



It seems a little to bullish (or bearish depending on your perspective) but it is well worth to think about it.

I wonder if this analysis is based on China's slowing economic growth, or the growing efficiency of alternative fuels?

[Firn]

Good questions which are usually not in short supply regarding China...

Sinopec has offered a view of the country that should serve as a reality check to any oil bull. For diesel, the fuel that most closely tracks economic growth, the peak in China’s demand is just two years away, in 2017, according to Sinopec Chairman Fu Chengyu, who gave his outlook on a little reported March 23 conference call. The high point in gasoline sales is likely to come in about a decade, he said, and the company is already preparing for the day when selling fuel is what he called a “non-core” activity.

Peak diesel demand just two years ago is a very bold prediction. A quick look at the commercial vehicle sales have roughly doubled within 10 years on a 3Y basis. I don't know about the longevity of Chinese trucks and the typical turnover but the overall fleet size should be still increasing greatly even if annual sales are down. Alternatives to diesel play only a minor role so, all things equal, we would have to see a large drop in miles per vehicle (or/and a lot of vehicle exports to Africa ) if demand should peak in 2017



The current trend of diesel and ex-diesel oil consumption...

The China Commercial Vehicle Outlook is dated but gives plenty of details on the market (among them the officially proposed vehicle duration)A recent global overview provides some background. There might have been some overinvestment due to a too bullish projection of the economy, some impact by Euro IV, more efficient fleet management. lots of other factors and so forth but personally it seems unlikey that we will see no increase in consumption over 2017 unless there is a might Chinese crash.

China invests massively in renewables but China is massive and the energy sector has typically a huge momentum. I will have to take a closer look at the non-diesel part later, starting most likey here.



Yes I love graphs!

[AdamG]

A massive power failure that crippled life in Turkey for almost 10 hours on Tuesday highlights the threats facing electricity grids worldwide.

Turkey’s most extensive power failure in 15 years, which left people stranded in elevators and traffic snarled, wasn’t the result of a lack of electricity. The prime minister said all possible causes -- including a cyber-attack -- were being investigated.

While the source of the problem is still unknown, recent revelations that a 2008 oil pipeline explosion in Turkey was orchestrated via computer and the high-profile hacking last year on Sony Pictures Entertainment demonstrate the increasing ability to penetrate systems. For power grids, technology being added to make them more reliable and productive is also giving attackers an entry point into vital infrastructure.

“Every country, including the U.S., will be looking at it to see what the vulnerabilities were and learn some lessons about protection,” said Kit Konolige, a New York-based utility analyst for Bloomberg. “An electric grid is a complex system and it’s hard to ensure that it’s defended everywhere.”

Several foreign governments have hacked into U.S. energy, water and fuel distribution systems and might damage essential services, the National Security Agency said in November. A report by California-based cybersecurity company SentinelOne predicts that such attacks will disrupt U.S. electricity in 2015.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-under-threat