Energy Security

[Rick M]

Welcome, Andre, and thanks for your list of projections re timing of peak..
The CERA graph is also useful… it highlights the fact that price volatility may be more problematic than sustained high prices, since volatility will routinely undercut the efforts to bring the more expensive (and eventually necessary) oil on-stream.

Steve, once again your observations are detailed and specific.
1. de Sousa’s graph
I am trying to contact Luis de Sousa and will invite him to join this discussion.
I assume that he will be able to defend his projections.

2. Incentives for optimism
I agree with many of your observations.
But there are many reasons for industry to present an optimistic front and these outweigh the benefits of raising the alarm (which you identified).

I am no financial analyst, but surely if potential investors believe that individual oil companies were faced with decreasing access to viable reserves, were burdened with aging infrastructure, were likely to be penalized by some sort of “carbon pricing,” and were facing an significant (perhaps government-supported) shift to alternative sources of energy, this would surely hurt their ability to retain investors, the value of their shares, and their overall financial viability.

Similarly, government bureaucrats surely have a vested interest in assuring the public and the Ministers/Secretaries (to whom they are accountable) that they are doing a wonderful job of anticipating future needs and laying the groundwork for that.
There are many other reasons to maintain the status quo: employment, royalties, safeguarding investment, retaining stock-holders, maintaining existing flow rates, etc.

Politicians are extremely reluctant to sound the alarm on an issue for which they have no credible & palatable solution. When one considers the incomparable net energy which we get from petroleum and the many benefits and comforts which we obtain from it, who on earth is likely to vote for a politician who (as you point out) is describing an unhappy scenario based on a speculative scare chart?
That politician would be characterized as a scare-mongerer, a person who lacks faith in the creative abilities of his nation, is unworthy of a leadership role, etc.
If you take a look at some of the videos of presentations by Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, you will not that he is speaking to a near-empty hall much of the time… no-one is interested.

To his credit, he doggedly perseveres, stressing always the larger points which really matter:
- fossil fuels are finite
- we are using oil at 1000 barrels a second and have become dependent on it for virtually everything
- it’s getting harder and more expensive to obtain
- our oil-related infrastructure commitments (highways, auto sector, heating, agri-food, military, etc) are enormous and will require decades to alter (to what alternative source?)
- carbon emissions are beginning to inflict serious environmental consequences
and so on… you know all of this and I presume that you would not quarrel with any of these larger points.
Roscoe (now 82) keeps on pushing, reminding people how worried he is for his grandkids.
He deserves a medal.

The details over when specific countries peaked in production or in their exports will, in the end, matter little.
I am certainly no fan of Bush, but I do think he was correct in referring to our relationship to oil as an addiction.
Despite all the info on climate change, we regularly see people addling their cars to run the A/C… 200 hp to keep someone cool on a perfectly normal summer’s day.
Most North Americans will resist any attempt to deprive them of these everyday comforts, the political perils.

Sorry for the rant.
We’ll get back to the issue of export decline, but this is enough for one posting.

--Rick