Honduras (catch all)

[AnalyticType]

From Stratfor today:

Honduras saw several siginificant developments as tensions continue to rise following the June 24 dismissal of the Central American country's military commander....

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/200..._tensions_rise

What reaction/action do you perceive will develop within the Honduran military?

Zelaya wants to re-engineer the 1982 constitution, likely to his personal benefit: currently the constitution allows for exactly one presidential term. No doubt he wants more. Has he been studying up on the sweet deal Turkmenbashi had?

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/200...l_crisis_brews

[Blackjack]

It looks like we have the answer to what his opposition will do. Appearently the Army has arrested the Honduran President, but things went for warm to hot overnight.

From Stratfor today:


Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/200..._tensions_rise

What reaction/action do you perceive will develop within the Honduran military?

Zelaya wants to re-engineer the 1982 constitution, likely to his personal benefit: currently the constitution allows for exactly one presidential term. No doubt he wants more. Has he been studying up on the sweet deal Turkmenbashi had?

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/200...l_crisis_brews

[Watcher In The Middle]

...about what actually occurred:

This article is slanted toward Honduras exiling President Mel Zelaya, and then moving on.

Honduras Defends Its Democracy

This article is slanted toward US involvement for forcing reinstatement of President Mel Zelaya.

Separate Article With Different Viewpoint

Looks to be more of an internal political crisis in which nobody was willing to stop pushing the envelope, eventually push comes to shove. Somebody gets to take an extended vacation out of the country.

This is going to be an interesting case to see how much political resources that POTUS wants to spend regarding Honduras - if any. You only have so much "political capital" to spend, and one of the big issues is going to be "Why Honduras, and why not (enter name here)".

Smart Move: Let your Sec. of State handle this, apply the appropriate level of outrage, and then move back onto the more pressing issues.

[jmm99]

WH denial of involvement (apparently confirmed by Zelaya) and Chavez on military intervention (by him).

JTF, since you're my go to guy on things Central American, what think you ? Or is it too early to tell ?

[John T. Fishel]

It appears, from what I have read - the articlesposted by Watcher seem to cover the possible realities - that Zelaya was deposed constitutionally, if in a rough and ready manner. The general reaction in Latin America has been knee jerk rejection of any military involvement but who was to carry out the Supreme Court's order to arrest him if not the military? This was hardly similar to the attempted coup against Chavez or Chavez' own coup attempt against constitutional President Carlos Andres Perez in 1992 (exact date?). In neither case had the other institutions of government charged the President with wrongdoing. The closest analogy I can think of is the period that led up to Augusto Pinochet's coup against Salvador Allende in 1972. In that case, the Congress and the courts had turned on Allende but neither had directed his arrest. Pinochet acted alone, in the end. The proof was in what happened next. While the coup itself was popular, the expectation was that the armed forces would return to barracks having done the job - they didn't. In HO, the armed forces were directed to take action by the court which was confirmed by the Congress which named Zelaya's successor according to the constitution. Appropriately, Secretary Clinton has not accepted that this was a military coup and the Adminsitration is acting cautiously.
Personally, I think the WSJ article got it right based on what I currently know, and therefore, we should act more forthrightly to support the Honduran congress and the court. That said, more and different information could change my perception.

[Steve Blair]

Link to a BBC article on the situation. Looks like Obama's already made a statement of sorts.