Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
Smarter approach is to out-compete AQ for influence with the LIFG. Conduct UW ourselves with them, but promoting non-violent approaches to changing governance that historically are far more successful than violent approaches. This puts the Charlie Bravo on AQ who is peddling violence and hate and could give a rip about Libyan nationalism. At the same time we go to Qadaffi and say we can help him neutralize the LIFG. But he needs to change. We mediate talks between him and the insurgent leadership. Perhaps this is the time for his much more moderate son to step up as leader. What carrots can we put on the table to entice that option? What about LIFG, they raise some good points, what can Libya do to reasonably meet some of these concerns? etc. Taking this approach we REDUCE motivation to attack us, and also help immunize Libya to AQ's UW influence and more effectively accomplish what we hoped to do by helping Qadaffi just put the beat-down on his own populace approach.

How does lawfare come in? Well, there is this problem with Libyan rule of law being perceived as unjust. A focus on promoting Justice (rather than the current misguided promotion of ROL). There also is this matter of the populace not having legal means to affect change of governance. Another good place for the lawyers to help contract mechanisms that make sense in this culture and that are acceptable to all, and that can actually work.
This sounds like a recipe for overt and gratuitous intervention in the internal affairs of another country, and I suspect that despite the noble intention, the outcome would be that we would simultaneously and drastically antagonize the government, the populace, and the LIFG, none of whom asked us or want us to get involved. AQ could sit back and salivate.

Unconventional Warfare is still warfare, and conducting warfare of any sort against another state is not something to be taken lightly. It's also not something that's going to stay secret, and when the word hits the street (very quickly) the potential for unintended consequences is enormous.

If you're talking about Libya, it's important to note that th LIFG has never achieved much popular support: LIFG leaders have been quoted plaintively lamenting the lack of engagement from the populace. This is a fairly common pattern among Arab populaces, who are only too happy to cheer on, support, and join AQ and affiliates if they are fighting jihad against foreign occupiers in faraway lands, but generally have no special interest in being ruled by them.

It's also important to note that when a populace sees a government being challenged and criticized by the US, the tendency is for that populace to rally behind the government, even if it's lousy and unpopular. Our intervention is not going to be seen, ever, as support for the populace: it's going to be seen as a self-seeking scheme to gain control. When the US criticizes a government it's not seen as us standing up for the populace, it's seen as disrespect for nation, culture, and tradition, and it's likely to accomplish the result opposite from that we intended.

The notion that intervention in the internal affairs of other countries is good policy as long as it pursues goals that we see as "good" may sound noble, but I suspect at the end of the day it's a recipe for disaster. It might be better to mind our own business for a change, and to stay out of the affairs of others unless we are directly and severely threatened.