davidbfpo, thanks for initial comments. I haven’t read Kilcullen’s Accidental Guerilla yet, are his comments about Danes in there?

In trying to push the conversation onwards, some of my thoughts on the issues of legitimacy, robustness you raise.

For UN commanders, access to imagery, especially tactical (and live) is by most accounts far more limited than NATO ops. If US COIN & IW doctrine ‘requires’ access to such ISR assets, and especially NATO adopts similar doctrines, then more investments are needed to be able to ‘play the game’. Conversely, NATO (and EU) troops that are used to receiving larger amounts of ISR info may not want to participate in UN operations if it is not forthcoming (and they don’t have the resources to provide it themselves).

On legitimacy, In Finland UN led operations are still closely identified with peacekeeping of yore, and it’s therefore seen as more legitimate (what Finland should be doing). This hasn’t precluded Finland from reducing its involvement in UN led operations. Nearly 80% of soldiers are in NATO led operations (KFOR & ISAF), less than 5% in UN led operations and the remainder in EU led operations. Local legitimacy is something that I’ve tried to look at, because Finns are not that used to having to worry about supporting the legitimacy of the HN through their actions - in effect taking sides on the strategic level.

I agree that NATO-EU led operations (or UN ones predominantly staffed and led by westerners - UNPROFOR in 1995) are seen to be more robust. Some of this undoubtedly comes from actually capabilities. However, already at the willingness to use the capabilities level, when moving towards actual combat (within COIN-stabops), I think there are many unanswered questions among both NATO and EU members. If robustness also includes a willingness to take casualties and keep going, I don’t know that those countries that are significant contributors to UN ops in Congo (for example) can be seen as less robust.

I haven’t hear anyone say Finns are participating in COIN, though operationally they are - it’s all to be subsumed under the ‘crisis management’ moniker. Speaking with a Finnish officer who has a good amount of international experience, he commented on Gen. Petraeus’s ‘commandments’ listed in Ricks’ The Gamble. In short, he felt that what was prescribed by Petraeus would have been very familiar to almost any Finnish peacekeeper that was stationed in Lebanon in the 1980s. From what I hear, I agree partially. However, for about 65 years Finnish soldiers have not been in a position where anyone is actively trying to kill them (with the increasing exception of Afghanistan). Considering what I understand of IW and COIN, I would say this is a significant difference. Though I don’t think Finnish soldiers are alone in this (among EU and NATO members).